11,638 research outputs found
Multilevel Monte Carlo Approximation of Functions
Many applications across sciences and technologies require a careful quantification of nondeterministic effects to a system output, for example, when evaluating the system’s reliability or when gearing it towards more robust operation conditions. At the heart of these considerations lies an accurate characterization of uncertain system outputs. In this work we introduce and analyze novel multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for an efficient characterization of an uncertain system output’s distribution. These techniques rely on accurately approximating general parametric expectations, i.e., expectations that depend on a parameter, uniformly on an interval. Applications of interest include, for example, the approximation of the characteristic function and of the cumulative distribution function of an uncertain system output. A further important consequence of the introduced approximation techniques for parametric expectations (i.e., for functions) is that they allow us to construct multilevel Monte Carlo estimators for various robustness indicators, such as for a quantile (also known as value-at-risk) and for the conditional value-at-risk. These robustness indicators cannot be expressed as moments and are thus not usually easily accessible. In fact, here we provide a framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate a cumulative distribution function, a quantile, and the associated conditional value-at-risk of an uncertain system output at the cost of a single multilevel Monte Carlo simulation, while each estimated quantity satisfies a prescribed tolerance goal
MATHICSE Technical Report : Multilevel Monte Carlo approximation of functions
Many applications across sciences and technologies require a careful quantification of non-deterministic effects to a system output, for example when evaluating the system's reliability or when gearing it towards more robust operation conditions. At the heart of these considerations lies an accurate characterization of uncertain system outputs. In this work we introduce and analyze novel multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for an efficient characterization of an uncertain system output's distribution. These techniques rely on accurately approximating general parametric expectations, i.e. expectations that depend on a parameter, uniformly on an interval. Applications of interest include, for example, the approximation of the characteristic function and of the cumulative distribution function of an uncertain system output. A further important consequence of the introduced approximation techniques for parametric expectations (i.e. for functions) is that they allow to construct multilevel Monte Carlo estimators for various robustness indicators, such as for a quantile (also known as value-at-risk) and for the conditional value-at-risk. These robustness indicators cannot be expressed as moments and are thus not easily accessible usually. In fact, here we provide a framework that allows to simultaneously estimate a cumulative distribution function, a quantile, and the associated conditional value-at-risk of an uncertain system output at the cost of a single multilevel Monte Carlo simulation, while each estimated quantity satisfies a prescribed tolerance goal
Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for High-Contrast Single-Phase Flow Problems
In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty
quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow
problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method
(GMsFEM) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. The former provides a
hierarchy of approximations of different resolution, whereas the latter gives
an efficient way to estimate quantities of interest using samples on different
levels. The number of basis functions in the online GMsFEM stage can be varied
to determine the solution resolution and the computational cost, and to
efficiently generate samples at different levels. In particular, it is cheap to
generate samples on coarse grids but with low resolution, and it is expensive
to generate samples on fine grids with high accuracy. By suitably choosing the
number of samples at different levels, one can leverage the expensive
computation in larger fine-grid spaces toward smaller coarse-grid spaces, while
retaining the accuracy of the final Monte Carlo estimate. Further, we describe
a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which sequentially screens the
proposal with different levels of approximations and reduces the number of
evaluations required on fine grids, while combining the samples at different
levels to arrive at an accurate estimate. The framework seamlessly integrates
the multiscale features of the GMsFEM with the multilevel feature of the MLMC
methods following the work in \cite{ketelson2013}, and our numerical
experiments illustrate its efficiency and accuracy in comparison with standard
Monte Carlo estimates.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure
Random Bit Multilevel Algorithms for Stochastic Differential Equations
We study the approximation of expectations \E(f(X)) for solutions of
SDEs and functionals by means of restricted
Monte Carlo algorithms that may only use random bits instead of random numbers.
We consider the worst case setting for functionals from the Lipschitz class
w.r.t.\ the supremum norm. We construct a random bit multilevel Euler algorithm
and establish upper bounds for its error and cost. Furthermore, we derive
matching lower bounds, up to a logarithmic factor, that are valid for all
random bit Monte Carlo algorithms, and we show that, for the given quadrature
problem, random bit Monte Carlo algorithms are at least almost as powerful as
general randomized algorithms
Multilevel Sparse Grid Methods for Elliptic Partial Differential Equations with Random Coefficients
Stochastic sampling methods are arguably the most direct and least intrusive
means of incorporating parametric uncertainty into numerical simulations of
partial differential equations with random inputs. However, to achieve an
overall error that is within a desired tolerance, a large number of sample
simulations may be required (to control the sampling error), each of which may
need to be run at high levels of spatial fidelity (to control the spatial
error). Multilevel sampling methods aim to achieve the same accuracy as
traditional sampling methods, but at a reduced computational cost, through the
use of a hierarchy of spatial discretization models. Multilevel algorithms
coordinate the number of samples needed at each discretization level by
minimizing the computational cost, subject to a given error tolerance. They can
be applied to a variety of sampling schemes, exploit nesting when available,
can be implemented in parallel and can be used to inform adaptive spatial
refinement strategies. We extend the multilevel sampling algorithm to sparse
grid stochastic collocation methods, discuss its numerical implementation and
demonstrate its efficiency both theoretically and by means of numerical
examples
- …