Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

An Overview of Electricity Demand Forecasting Techniques

Load forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution and markets. Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. Load forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution and markets. This paper presents a review of electricity demand forecasting techniques. The various types of methodologies and models are included in the literature. Load forecasting can be broadly divided into three categories: short-term forecasts which are usually from one hour to one week, medium forecasts which are usually from a week to a year, and long-term forecasts which are longer than a year.  Based on the various types of studies presented in these papers, the load forecasting techniques may be presented in three major groups: Traditional Forecasting technique, Modified Traditional Technique and Soft Computing Technique. Keywords: Electricity Demand, Forecasting Techniques, Soft Computing, Regression method, SVM

Порівняльний аналіз двох підходів до вирішення задачі короткострокового прогнозування сумарного електричного навантаження електроенергетичної системи

В статті описано вирішення задачі прогнозування сумарного електричного навантаження (СЕН) електроенергетичної системи (ЕЕС) двома способами. Перший (для побудови математичної моделі) використовує параметричний метод аналізу та прогнозування нестаціонарних часових рядів, другий – нейро-фаззі мережі. Наведено адитивну математичну модель СЕН, алгоритми моделювання та прогнозування її складових. Описано архітектуру нейро-фаззі мережі та алгоритм її навчання. Для адекватного порівняння результатів виконано прогнозування СЕН ЕЕС на тижневий інтервал упередження з використанням єдиної вихідної інформації. Показано переваги ієрархічного вирішення задачі короткострокового прогнозування сумарного електричного навантаження ЕЕС із використанням математичних моделей СЕН обласних енергосистем. Сформульовано шляхи подальшого підвищення точності та надійності результатів короткострокового прогнозування СЕН ЕЕС.В статье приведено описание решения задачи краткосрочного прогнозирования суммарной электрической загрузки электроенергетической системы (ЭЭС) двумя способами. Первый (для построения математической модели) использует параметрический метод анализа и прогнозирования нестационарных временных рядов. Второй – нейро-фаззи сеть. Приведены аддитивная математическая модель СЭН, алгоритмы моделирования и прогнозирования ее составляющих. Описаны архитектура нейро-фаззи сети и алгоритм ее обучения. Для адекватного сравнения результатов выполнено прогнозирование СЭН ЭЭС на недельный интервал упреждения с использованием единой исходной информации. Показаны преимущества иерархического решения задачи краткосрочного прогнозирования суммарной электрической нагрузки ЭЭС с использованием математических моделей СЭН областных энергосистем. Сформулированы пути дальнейшего повышения точности и надежности результатов краткосрочного прогнозирования СЭН ЭЭС.This paper deals with the solution of the problem of short-term forecasting of the power system active load (PSAL) in two ways. First, to build a mathematical model using parametric method of analysis and prediction of non-stationary time series. The second - the neuro-fuzzy network. The additive mathematical model of PSAL, algorithms of modelling and prediction of its components are presented. The architecture of the neuro-fuzzy network and learning algorithm are described. With the purpose of adequate comparing of results, using the same informations, the forecasting of PSAL for a week are performed. The advantages of hierarchical problem solving short-term forecasting electrical load of united power systems with using the mathematical models load of regional power systems are demonstrated. The ways of further improving of the accuracy and reliability results of the short-term forecasting of PSAL are formulated

Evaluation of Flashover Voltage Levels of Contaminated Hydrophobic Polymer Insulators Using Regression Trees, Neural Networks, and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

Polluted insulators at high voltages has acquired considerable importance with the rise of voltage transmission lines. The contamination may lead to flashover voltage. As a result, flashover voltage could lead to service outage and affects negatively the reliability of the power system. This paper presents a dynamic model of ac 50Hz flashover voltages of polluted hydrophobic polymer insulators. The models are constructed using the regression tree method, artificial neural network (ANN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS). For this purpose, more than 2000 different experimental testing conditions were used to generate a training set. The study of the ac flashover voltages depends on silicone rubber (SiR) percentage content in ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber. Besides, water conductivity (μS/cm), number of droplets on the surface, and volume of water droplet (ml) are considered. The regression tree model is obtained and the performance of the proposed system with other intelligence methods is compa ed. It can be concluded that the performance of the least squares regression tree model outperforms the other intelligence methods, which gives the proposed model better generalization ability

Optimization methods for electric power systems: An overview

Power systems optimization problems are very difficult to solve because power systems are very large, complex, geographically widely distributed and are influenced by many unexpected events. It is therefore necessary to employ most efficient optimization methods to take full advantages in simplifying the formulation and implementation of the problem. This article presents an overview of important mathematical optimization and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques used in power optimization problems. Applications of hybrid AI techniques have also been discussed in this article

Robust 24 Hours ahead Forecast in a Microgrid: A Real Case Study

Forecasting the power production from renewable energy sources (RESs) has become fundamental in microgrid applications to optimize scheduling and dispatching of the available assets. In this article, a methodology to provide the 24 h ahead Photovoltaic (PV) power forecast based on a Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network (PHANN) for microgrids is presented. The goal of this paper is to provide a robust methodology to forecast 24 h in advance the PV power production in a microgrid, addressing the specific criticalities of this environment. The proposed approach has to validate measured data properly, through an effective algorithm and further refine the power forecast when newer data are available. The procedure is fully implemented in a facility of the Multi-Good Microgrid Laboratory (MG(Lab)(2)) of the Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy, where new Energy Management Systems (EMSs) are studied. Reported results validate the proposed approach as a robust and accurate procedure for microgrid applications