1,236 research outputs found

    Expected utility theory, Jeffrey’s decision theory, and the paradoxes

    Get PDF
    In Richard Bradley’s book, Decision Theory with a Human Face, we have selected two themes for discussion. The first is the Bolker-Jeffrey theory of decision, which the book uses throughout as a tool to reorganize the whole field of decision theory, and in particular to evaluate the extent to which expected utility theories may be normatively too demanding. The second theme is the redefinition strategy that can be used to defend EU theories against the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, a strategy that the book by and large endorses, and even develops in an original way concerning the Ellsberg paradox. We argue that the BJ theory is too specific to fulfil Bradley’s foundational project and that the redefinition strategy fails in both the Allais and Ellsberg cases. Although we share Bradley’s conclusion that EU theories do not state universal rationality requirements, we reach it not by a comparison with BJ theory, but by a comparison with the non-EU theories that the paradoxes have heuristically suggested

    Ambiguous correlation

    Full text link
    Many decisions are made in environments where outcomes are determined by the realization of multiple random events. A decision maker may be uncertain how these events are related. We identify and experimentally substantiate behavior that intuitively reflects a lack of confidence in their joint distribution. Our findings suggest a dimension of ambiguity which is different from that in the classical distinction between risk and "Knightian uncertainty"

    Electoral Competition with Uncertainty Averse Parties

    Get PDF
    The nonexistence of equilibria in models of electoral competition involving multiple issues is one of the more puzzling results in political economics. In this paper, we relax the standard assumption that parties act as expected utility maximizers. We show that equilibria often exist when parties with limited knowledge about the electorate are modeled as uncertainty-averse. What is more, these equilibria can be characterized as a straightforward generalization of the classical median voter result.Uncertainty Aversion, Multiple Priors, Median Voter, Electoral Competition over many Issues

    Impact of violence against women on severe acute maternal morbidity in the intensive care unit, including neonatal outcomes: a case–control study protocol in a tertiary healthcare facility in Lima, Peru

    Get PDF
    Introduction Preventing and reducing violence against women (VAW) and maternal mortality are Sustainable Development Goals. Worldwide, the maternal mortality ratio has fallen about 44% in the last 25 years, and for one maternal death there are many women affected by severe acute maternal morbidity (SAMM) requiring management in the intensive care unit (ICU). These women represent the most critically ill obstetric patients of the maternal morbidity spectrum and should be studied to complement the review of maternal mortality. VAW has been associated with all-cause maternal deaths, and since many women (30%) endure violence usually exerted by their intimate partners and this abuse can be severe during pregnancy, it is important to determine whether it impacts SAMM. Thus, this study aims to investigate the impact of VAW on SAMM in the ICU. Methods and analysis This will be a prospective case-control study undertaken in a tertiary healthcare facility in Lima-Peru, with a sample size of 109 cases (obstetric patients admitted to the ICU) and 109 controls (obstetric patients not admitted to the ICU selected by systematic random sampling). Data on social determinants, medical and obstetric characteristics, VAW, pregnancy and neonatal outcome will be collected through interviews and by extracting information from the medical records using a pretested form. Main outcome will be VAW rate and neonatal mortality rate between cases and controls. VAW will be assessed by using the WHO instrument. Binary logistic followed by stepwise multivariate regression and goodness of fit test will assess any association between VAW and SAMM. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the La Trobe University, Melbourne-Australia and the tertiary healthcare facility in Lima-Peru. This research follows the WHO ethical and safety recommendations for research on VAW. Findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals

    Investment Behavior under Ambiguity: The Case of Pessimistic Decision Makers

    Get PDF
    We define pessimistic, respectively optimistic, investors as CEU (Choquet expected utility) decision makers who update their pessimistic, respectively optimistic, beliefs according to a pessimistic (Dempster-Shafer), respectively optimistic, update rule. This paper then demonstrates that, in contrast to optimistic investors, pessimistic investors may strictly prefer investing in an illiquid asset to investing in a liquid asset. Key to our result is the dynamic inconsistency of CEU decision making, implying that a CEU decision maker ex ante prefers a different strategy with respect to prematurely liquidating an uncertain long-term investment project than after learning her liquidity needs. Investing in an illiquid asset then serves as a commitment device guaranteeing an ex ante favorable outcome.

    Impact of gender-based violence on psychological distress and happiness in León (Nicaragua)

    Get PDF
    The researchers' aim for the current study is to analyze the impact of gender-based violence on mental health and happiness. The sample is composed of 136 women victims of intimate partner violence, who were living in poverty. The participants contacted through the country?s Commissariat for Women and Children and other associations working with the National Police from Nicaragua, a country with low levels of development. The results of our structural equation model show that the frequency of abuse has a direct effect on psychological distress and an indirect effect on overall happiness. The deterioration of mental health and social support have a direct effect on overall happiness. Consequently, emotional recovery and social support play an important role in the future of women victims of gender-based violence. This information can be useful to reduce psychological distress and improve care for women in specialized services

    Knightian Uncertainty, k-Ignorance, and Optimal Timing

    Get PDF
    We investigate within a continuous time setting how Knightian uncertainty characterized by k-ignorance affects the optimal timing policies of a risk-neutral and uncertainty averse investor in the case where the exercise payoff is monotonic. We prove that increased Knightian uncertainty unambiguously decreases the value of the optimal timing policy of an uncertainty averse investor. We also show that higher Knightian uncertainty accelerates timing by shrinking the continuation region whenever the termination payoff is independent of Knightian uncertainty. If this independence condition is not fulfilled, then our results indicate that higher Knightian uncertainty may decelerate optimal timing.Knightian uncertainty, k-ambiguity, optimal stopping, diffusions

    Preliminary Validation of the Spanish Version of the Multiple Stimulus Types Ambiguity Tolerance Scale (MSTAT-II)

    Get PDF
    Despite widespread interest in ambiguity tolerance and other informationrelated individual differences, existing measures are conceptually dispersed and psychometrically weak. This paper presents the Spanish version of MSTAT-II, a short, stimulus-oriented, and psychometrically improved measure of an individual’s orientation toward ambiguous stimuli. Results obtained reveal adequate reliability, validity, and temporal stability. These results support the use of MSTAT-II as an adequate measure of ambiguity tolerance.A pesar del amplio interés en la tolerancia a la ambigüedad y a otras diferencias individuales relacionadas con la información, las medidas existentes son conceptualmente dispersas y presentan deficiencias psicométricas. El propósito de este trabajo es presentar la versión española del MSTAT II, un instrumento de medida de las orientaciones de un individuo respecto a estímulos ambiguos con mejoras psicométricas sustanciales, independiente del contexto y suficientemente corto para ser utilizado junto con otras medidas. Los resultados obtenidos en cuanto a consistencia interna, estabilidad temporal y validez son satisfactorios. Estos resultados apoyan el uso del MSTAT-II en su versión española como una medida adecuada de tolerancia a la ambigüedad.Junta de Andalucía proyecto SEJ 267

    From Little Acorns

    Get PDF
    Inaugurating Writing Nature: A Seasonal Program of Readings of Nature Writings, under the shared auspices of the Teatown Lake Reservation and the Hudson Valley Writers Center. Presented at the Hudson Valley Writers Center, Sleepy Hollow, New York
    • …
    corecore