Sleeping Beauty Reconsidered: Conditioning and Reflection in Asynchronous Systems

A careful analysis of conditioning in the Sleeping Beauty problem is done, using the formal model for reasoning about knowledge and probability developed by Halpern and Tuttle. While the Sleeping Beauty problem has been viewed as revealing problems with conditioning in the presence of imperfect recall, the analysis done here reveals that the problems are not so much due to imperfect recall as to asynchrony. The implications of this analysis for van Fraassen's Reflection Principle and Savage's Sure-Thing Principle are considered.Comment: A preliminary version of this paper appears in Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference (KR 2004). This version will appear in Oxford Studies in Epistemolog

Arena: A General Evaluation Platform and Building Toolkit for Multi-Agent Intelligence

Learning agents that are not only capable of taking tests, but also innovating is becoming a hot topic in AI. One of the most promising paths towards this vision is multi-agent learning, where agents act as the environment for each other, and improving each agent means proposing new problems for others. However, existing evaluation platforms are either not compatible with multi-agent settings, or limited to a specific game. That is, there is not yet a general evaluation platform for research on multi-agent intelligence. To this end, we introduce Arena, a general evaluation platform for multi-agent intelligence with 35 games of diverse logics and representations. Furthermore, multi-agent intelligence is still at the stage where many problems remain unexplored. Therefore, we provide a building toolkit for researchers to easily invent and build novel multi-agent problems from the provided game set based on a GUI-configurable social tree and five basic multi-agent reward schemes. Finally, we provide Python implementations of five state-of-the-art deep multi-agent reinforcement learning baselines. Along with the baseline implementations, we release a set of 100 best agents/teams that we can train with different training schemes for each game, as the base for evaluating agents with population performance. As such, the research community can perform comparisons under a stable and uniform standard. All the implementations and accompanied tutorials have been open-sourced for the community at https://sites.google.com/view/arena-unity/

Scalable Multiagent Coordination with Distributed Online Open Loop Planning

We propose distributed online open loop planning (DOOLP), a general framework for online multiagent coordination and decision making under uncertainty. DOOLP is based on online heuristic search in the space defined by a generative model of the domain dynamics, which is exploited by agents to simulate and evaluate the consequences of their potential choices. We also propose distributed online Thompson sampling (DOTS) as an effective instantiation of the DOOLP framework. DOTS models sequences of agent choices by concatenating a number of multiarmed bandits for each agent and uses Thompson sampling for dealing with action value uncertainty. The Bayesian approach underlying Thompson sampling allows to effectively model and estimate uncertainty about (a) own action values and (b) other agents' behavior. This approach yields a principled and statistically sound solution to the exploration-exploitation dilemma when exploring large search spaces with limited resources. We implemented DOTS in a smart factory case study with positive empirical results. We observed effective, robust and scalable planning and coordination capabilities even when only searching a fraction of the potential search space

Learning with Opponent-Learning Awareness

Multi-agent settings are quickly gathering importance in machine learning. This includes a plethora of recent work on deep multi-agent reinforcement learning, but also can be extended to hierarchical RL, generative adversarial networks and decentralised optimisation. In all these settings the presence of multiple learning agents renders the training problem non-stationary and often leads to unstable training or undesired final results. We present Learning with Opponent-Learning Awareness (LOLA), a method in which each agent shapes the anticipated learning of the other agents in the environment. The LOLA learning rule includes a term that accounts for the impact of one agent's policy on the anticipated parameter update of the other agents. Results show that the encounter of two LOLA agents leads to the emergence of tit-for-tat and therefore cooperation in the iterated prisoners' dilemma, while independent learning does not. In this domain, LOLA also receives higher payouts compared to a naive learner, and is robust against exploitation by higher order gradient-based methods. Applied to repeated matching pennies, LOLA agents converge to the Nash equilibrium. In a round robin tournament we show that LOLA agents successfully shape the learning of a range of multi-agent learning algorithms from literature, resulting in the highest average returns on the IPD. We also show that the LOLA update rule can be efficiently calculated using an extension of the policy gradient estimator, making the method suitable for model-free RL. The method thus scales to large parameter and input spaces and nonlinear function approximators. We apply LOLA to a grid world task with an embedded social dilemma using recurrent policies and opponent modelling. By explicitly considering the learning of the other agent, LOLA agents learn to cooperate out of self-interest. The code is at github.com/alshedivat/lola