37,082 research outputs found
STG2Seq: Spatial-temporal Graph to Sequence Model for Multi-step Passenger Demand Forecasting
Multi-step passenger demand forecasting is a crucial task in on-demand
vehicle sharing services. However, predicting passenger demand over multiple
time horizons is generally challenging due to the nonlinear and dynamic
spatial-temporal dependencies. In this work, we propose to model multi-step
citywide passenger demand prediction based on a graph and use a hierarchical
graph convolutional structure to capture both spatial and temporal correlations
simultaneously. Our model consists of three parts: 1) a long-term encoder to
encode historical passenger demands; 2) a short-term encoder to derive the
next-step prediction for generating multi-step prediction; 3) an
attention-based output module to model the dynamic temporal and channel-wise
information. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our model
consistently outperforms many baseline methods and state-of-the-art models.Comment: 7 page
CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting
Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This
crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences
including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family
problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in
need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid
overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types
of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives
and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel
spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging
the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model
incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation
subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called
"community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be
optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition,
our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what
communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as
how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two
real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior
forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of
spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid
overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201
Enhanced news sentiment analysis using deep learning methods
We explore the predictive power of historical news sentiments based on financial market performance to forecast financial news sentiments. We define news sentiments based on stock price returns averaged over one minute right after a news article has been released. If the stock price exhibits positive (negative) return, we classify the news article released just prior to the observed stock return as positive (negative). We use Wikipedia and Gigaword five corpus articles from 2014 and we apply the global vectors for word representation method to this corpus to create word vectors to use as inputs into the deep learning TensorFlow network. We analyze high-frequency (intraday) Thompson Reuters News Archive as well as the high-frequency price tick history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 30) Index individual stocks for the period between 1/1/2003 and 12/30/2013. We apply a combination of deep learning methodologies of recurrent neural network with long short-term memory units to train the Thompson Reuters News Archive Data from 2003 to 2012, and we test the forecasting power of our method on 2013 News Archive data. We find that the forecasting accuracy of our methodology improves when we switch from random selection of positive and negative news to selecting the news with highest positive scores as positive news and news with highest negative scores as negative news to create our training data set.Published versio
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