Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections

Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections. Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections

Data Assimilation by Artificial Neural Networks for an Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Conventional Observation

This paper presents an approach for employing artificial neural networks (NN) to emulate an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as a method of data assimilation. The assimilation methods are tested in the Simplified Parameterizations PrimitivE-Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) model, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using synthetic observational data simulating localization of balloon soundings. For the data assimilation scheme, the supervised NN, the multilayer perceptrons (MLP-NN), is applied. The MLP-NN are able to emulate the analysis from the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). After the training process, the method using the MLP-NN is seen as a function of data assimilation. The NN were trained with data from first three months of 1982, 1983, and 1984. A hind-casting experiment for the 1985 data assimilation cycle using MLP-NN were performed with synthetic observations for January 1985. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the NN technique for atmospheric data assimilation. The results of the NN analyses are very close to the results from the LETKF analyses, the differences of the monthly average of absolute temperature analyses is of order 0.02. The simulations show that the major advantage of using the MLP-NN is better computational performance, since the analyses have similar quality. The CPU-time cycle assimilation with MLP-NN is 90 times faster than cycle assimilation with LETKF for the numerical experiment.Comment: 17 pages, 16 figures, monthly weather revie

Temporal Feature Selection with Symbolic Regression

Building and discovering useful features when constructing machine learning models is the central task for the machine learning practitioner. Good features are useful not only in increasing the predictive power of a model but also in illuminating the underlying drivers of a target variable. In this research we propose a novel feature learning technique in which Symbolic regression is endowed with a ``Range Terminal\u27\u27 that allows it to explore functions of the aggregate of variables over time. We test the Range Terminal on a synthetic data set and a real world data in which we predict seasonal greenness using satellite derived temperature and snow data over a portion of the Arctic. On the synthetic data set we find Symbolic regression with the Range Terminal outperforms standard Symbolic regression and Lasso regression. On the Arctic data set we find it outperforms standard Symbolic regression, fails to beat the Lasso regression, but finds useful features describing the interaction between Land Surface Temperature, Snow, and seasonal vegetative growth in the Arctic

Integrating Local and Global Error Statistics for Multi-Scale RBF Network Training: An Assessment on Remote Sensing Data

Background This study discusses the theoretical underpinnings of a novel multi-scale radial basis function (MSRBF) neural network along with its application to classification and regression tasks in remote sensing. The novelty of the proposed MSRBF network relies on the integration of both local and global error statistics in the node selection process. Methodology and Principal Findings The method was tested on a binary classification task, detection of impervious surfaces using a Landsat satellite image, and a regression problem, simulation of waveform LiDAR data. In the classification scenario, results indicate that the MSRBF is superior to existing radial basis function and back propagation neural networks in terms of obtained classification accuracy and training-testing consistency, especially for smaller datasets. The latter is especially important as reference data acquisition is always an issue in remote sensing applications. In the regression case, MSRBF provided improved accuracy and consistency when contrasted with a multi kernel RBF network. Conclusion and Significance Results highlight the potential of a novel training methodology that is not restricted to a specific algorithmic type, therefore significantly advancing machine learning algorithms for classification and regression tasks. The MSRBF is expected to find numerous applications within and outside the remote sensing field

Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events

Snow cover thickness estimation using radial basis function networks

Abstract. This paper reports an experimental study designed for the in-depth investigation of how the radial basis function network (RBFN) estimates snow cover thickness as a function of climate and topographic parameters. The estimation problem is modeled in terms of both function regression and classification, obtaining continuous and discrete thickness values, respectively. The model is based on a minimal set of climatic and topographic data collected from a limited number of stations located in the Italian Central Alps. Several experiments have been conceived and conducted adopting different evaluation indexes. A comparison analysis was also developed for a quantitative evaluation of the advantages of the RBFN method over to conventional widely used spatial interpolation techniques when dealing with critical situations originated by lack of data and limited n-homogeneously distributed instrumented sites. The RBFN model proved competitive behavior and a valuable tool in critical situations in which conventional techniques suffer from a lack of representative data

Altimetric system: Earth observing system. Volume 2h: Panel report

A rationale and recommendations for planning, implementing, and operating an altimetric system aboard the Earth observing system (Eos) spacecraft is provided. In keeping with the recommendations of the Eos Science and Mission Requirements Working Group, a complete altimetric system is defined that is capable of perpetuating the data set to be derived from TOPEX/Poseidon, enabling key scientific questions to be addressed. Since the scientific utility and technical maturity of spaceborne radar altimeters is well documented, the discussion is limited to highlighting those Eos-specific considerations that materially impact upon radar altimetric measurements