Regret Bounds for Thompson Sampling in Episodic Restless Bandit Problems

Restless bandit problems are instances of non-stationary multi-armed bandits. These problems have been studied well from the optimization perspective, where the goal is to efficiently find a near-optimal policy when system parameters are known. However, very few papers adopt a learning perspective, where the parameters are unknown. In this paper, we analyze the performance of Thompson sampling in episodic restless bandits with unknown parameters. We consider a general policy map to define our competitor and prove an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ Bayesian regret bound. Our competitor is flexible enough to represent various benchmarks including the best fixed action policy, the optimal policy, the Whittle index policy, or the myopic policy. We also present empirical results that support our theoretical findings

Optimal Recommendation to Users that React: Online Learning for a Class of POMDPs

We describe and study a model for an Automated Online Recommendation System (AORS) in which a user's preferences can be time-dependent and can also depend on the history of past recommendations and play-outs. The three key features of the model that makes it more realistic compared to existing models for recommendation systems are (1) user preference is inherently latent, (2) current recommendations can affect future preferences, and (3) it allows for the development of learning algorithms with provable performance guarantees. The problem is cast as an average-cost restless multi-armed bandit for a given user, with an independent partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) for each item of content. We analyze the POMDP for a single arm, describe its structural properties, and characterize its optimal policy. We then develop a Thompson sampling-based online reinforcement learning algorithm to learn the parameters of the model and optimize utility from the binary responses of the users to continuous recommendations. We then analyze the performance of the learning algorithm and characterize the regret. Illustrative numerical results and directions for extension to the restless hidden Markov multi-armed bandit problem are also presented.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to conferenc

Sequential Monte Carlo Bandits

In this paper we propose a flexible and efficient framework for handling multi-armed bandits, combining sequential Monte Carlo algorithms with hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. The framework naturally encompasses restless bandits, contextual bandits, and other bandit variants under a single inferential model. Despite the model's generality, we propose efficient Monte Carlo algorithms to make inference scalable, based on recent developments in sequential Monte Carlo methods. Through two simulation studies, the framework is shown to outperform other empirical methods, while also naturally scaling to more complex problems for which existing approaches can not cope. Additionally, we successfully apply our framework to online video-based advertising recommendation, and show its increased efficacy as compared to current state of the art bandit algorithms

On the Whittle Index for Restless Multi-armed Hidden Markov Bandits

We consider a restless multi-armed bandit in which each arm can be in one of two states. When an arm is sampled, the state of the arm is not available to the sampler. Instead, a binary signal with a known randomness that depends on the state of the arm is available. No signal is available if the arm is not sampled. An arm-dependent reward is accrued from each sampling. In each time step, each arm changes state according to known transition probabilities which in turn depend on whether the arm is sampled or not sampled. Since the state of the arm is never visible and has to be inferred from the current belief and a possible binary signal, we call this the hidden Markov bandit. Our interest is in a policy to select the arm(s) in each time step that maximizes the infinite horizon discounted reward. Specifically, we seek the use of Whittle's index in selecting the arms. We first analyze the single-armed bandit and show that in general, it admits an approximate threshold-type optimal policy when there is a positive reward for the `no-sample' action. We also identify several special cases for which the threshold policy is indeed the optimal policy. Next, we show that such a single-armed bandit also satisfies an approximate-indexability property. For the case when the single-armed bandit admits a threshold-type optimal policy, we perform the calculation of the Whittle index for each arm. Numerical examples illustrate the analytical results.Comment: Revised version, corrected few typo

Restless-UCB, an Efficient and Low-complexity Algorithm for Online Restless Bandits

We study the online restless bandit problem, where the state of each arm evolves according to a Markov chain, and the reward of pulling an arm depends on both the pulled arm and the current state of the corresponding Markov chain. In this paper, we propose Restless-UCB, a learning policy that follows the explore-then-commit framework. In Restless-UCB, we present a novel method to construct offline instances, which only requires $O(N)$ time-complexity ($N$ is the number of arms) and is exponentially better than the complexity of existing learning policy. We also prove that Restless-UCB achieves a regret upper bound of $\tilde{O}((N+M^3)T^{2\over 3})$, where $M$ is the Markov chain state space size and $T$ is the time horizon. Compared to existing algorithms, our result eliminates the exponential factor (in $M,N$) in the regret upper bound, due to a novel exploitation of the sparsity in transitions in general restless bandit problems. As a result, our analysis technique can also be adopted to tighten the regret bounds of existing algorithms. Finally, we conduct experiments based on real-world dataset, to compare the Restless-UCB policy with state-of-the-art benchmarks. Our results show that Restless-UCB outperforms existing algorithms in regret, and significantly reduces the running time

Thompson Sampling in Non-Episodic Restless Bandits

Restless bandit problems assume time-varying reward distributions of the arms, which adds flexibility to the model but makes the analysis more challenging. We study learning algorithms over the unknown reward distributions and prove a sub-linear, $O(\sqrt{T}\log T)$, regret bound for a variant of Thompson sampling. Our analysis applies in the infinite time horizon setting, resolving the open question raised by Jung and Tewari (2019) whose analysis is limited to the episodic case. We adopt their policy mapping framework, which allows our algorithm to be efficient and simultaneously keeps the regret meaningful. Our algorithm adapts the TSDE algorithm of Ouyang et al. (2017) in a non-trivial manner to account for the special structure of restless bandits. We test our algorithm on a simulated dynamic channel access problem with several policy mappings, and the empirical regrets agree with the theoretical bound regardless of the choice of the policy mapping

Policy Gradients for Contextual Recommendations

Decision making is a challenging task in online recommender systems. The decision maker often needs to choose a contextual item at each step from a set of candidates. Contextual bandit algorithms have been successfully deployed to such applications, for the trade-off between exploration and exploitation and the state-of-art performance on minimizing online costs. However, the applicability of existing contextual bandit methods is limited by the over-simplified assumptions of the problem, such as assuming a simple form of the reward function or assuming a static environment where the states are not affected by previous actions. In this work, we put forward Policy Gradients for Contextual Recommendations (PGCR) to solve the problem without those unrealistic assumptions. It optimizes over a restricted class of policies where the marginal probability of choosing an item (in expectation of other items) has a simple closed form, and the gradient of the expected return over the policy in this class is in a succinct form. Moreover, PGCR leverages two useful heuristic techniques called Time-Dependent Greed and Actor-Dropout. The former ensures PGCR to be empirically greedy in the limit, and the latter addresses the trade-off between exploration and exploitation by using the policy network with Dropout as a Bayesian approximation. PGCR can solve the standard contextual bandits as well as its Markov Decision Process generalization. Therefore it can be applied to a wide range of realistic settings of recommendations, such as personalized advertising. We evaluate PGCR on toy datasets as well as a real-world dataset of personalized music recommendations. Experiments show that PGCR enables fast convergence and low regret, and outperforms both classic contextual-bandits and vanilla policy gradient methods.Comment: Accepted at WWW-201

Screening for an Infectious Disease as a Problem in Stochastic Control

There has been much recent interest in screening populations for an infectious disease. Here, we present a stochastic-control model, wherein the optimum screening policy is provably difficult to find, but wherein Thompson sampling has provably optimal performance guarantees in the form of Bayesian regret. Thompson sampling seems applicable especially to diseases, for which we do not understand the dynamics well, such as to the super-spreading COVID-19

Learning Unknown Service Rates in Queues: A Multi-Armed Bandit Approach

Consider a queueing system consisting of multiple servers. Jobs arrive over time and enter a queue for service; the goal is to minimize the size of this queue. At each opportunity for service, at most one server can be chosen, and at most one job can be served. Service is successful with a probability (the service probability) that is a priori unknown for each server. An algorithm that knows the service probabilities (the "genie") can always choose the server of highest service probability. We study algorithms that learn the unknown service probabilities. Our goal is to minimize queue-regret: the (expected) difference between the queue-lengths obtained by the algorithm, and those obtained by the "genie." Since queue-regret cannot be larger than classical regret, results for the standard multi-armed bandit problem give algorithms for which queue-regret increases no more than logarithmically in time. Our paper shows surprisingly more complex behavior. In particular, as long as the bandit algorithm's queues have relatively long regenerative cycles, queue-regret is similar to cumulative regret, and scales (essentially) logarithmically. However, we show that this "early stage" of the queueing bandit eventually gives way to a "late stage", where the optimal queue-regret scaling is $O(1/t)$. We demonstrate an algorithm that (order-wise) achieves this asymptotic queue-regret in the late stage. Our results are developed in a more general model that allows for multiple job classes as well

Value Directed Exploration in Multi-Armed Bandits with Structured Priors

Multi-armed bandits are a quintessential machine learning problem requiring the balancing of exploration and exploitation. While there has been progress in developing algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees, there has been less focus on practical near-optimal finite-time performance. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for Bayesian multi-armed bandits that utilizes value-function-driven online planning techniques. Building on previous work on UCB and Gittins index, we introduce linearly-separable value functions that take both the expected return and the benefit of exploration into consideration to perform n-step lookahead. The algorithm enjoys a sub-linear performance guarantee and we present simulation results that confirm its strength in problems with structured priors. The simplicity and generality of our approach makes it a strong candidate for analyzing more complex multi-armed bandit problems