Recurrent autoencoder with skip connections and exogenous variables for traffic forecasting

The increasing complexity of mobility plus the growing population in cities, together with the importance of privacy when sharing data from vehicles or any device, makes traffic forecasting that uses data from infrastructure and citizens an open and challenging task. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to deal with predictions of volume, speed and main traffic direction, in a new aggregated way of traffic data presented as videos. Our approach leverages the continuity in a sequence of frames, learning to embed them into a low dimensional space with an encoder and making predictions there using recurrent layers, ensuring good performance through an embedded loss, and then, recovering back spatial dimensions with a decoder using a second loss at a pixel level. Exogenous variables like weather, time and calendar are also added in the model. Furthermore, we introduce a novel sampling approach for sequences that ensures diversity when creating batches, running in parallel to the optimization process.This work is supported by SEAT, S.A., and the Secretariat of Universities and Research of the Department of Economy and Knowledge of the Generalitat de Catalunya, under the Industrial Doctorate Grant 2017 DI 52. This research is also supported by the grant TIN2017-89244-R from MINECO (Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad) and the recognition 2017SGR-856 (MACDA) from AGAUR (Generalitat de Catalunya).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Multi-modal Machine Learning for Vehicle Rating Predictions Using Image, Text, and Parametric Data

Accurate vehicle rating prediction can facilitate designing and configuring good vehicles. This prediction allows vehicle designers and manufacturers to optimize and improve their designs in a timely manner, enhance their product performance, and effectively attract consumers. However, most of the existing data-driven methods rely on data from a single mode, e.g., text, image, or parametric data, which results in a limited and incomplete exploration of the available information. These methods lack comprehensive analyses and exploration of data from multiple modes, which probably leads to inaccurate conclusions and hinders progress in this field. To overcome this limitation, we propose a multi-modal learning model for more comprehensive and accurate vehicle rating predictions. Specifically, the model simultaneously learns features from the parametric specifications, text descriptions, and images of vehicles to predict five vehicle rating scores, including the total score, critics score, performance score, safety score, and interior score. We compare the multi-modal learning model to the corresponding unimodal models and find that the multi-modal model's explanatory power is 4% - 12% higher than that of the unimodal models. On this basis, we conduct sensitivity analyses using SHAP to interpret our model and provide design and optimization directions to designers and manufacturers. Our study underscores the importance of the data-driven multi-modal learning approach for vehicle design, evaluation, and optimization. We have made the code publicly available at http://decode.mit.edu/projects/vehicleratings/.Comment: The paper submitted to IDETC/CIE2023, the International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, has been accepte

Application of big data in transportation safety analysis using statistical and deep learning methods

The emergence of new sensors and data sources provides large scale high-resolution big data from instantaneous vehicular movements, driver decision and states, surrounding environment, roadway characteristics, weather condition, etc. Such a big data can be served to expand our understanding regarding the current state of the transportation and help us to proactively evaluate and monitor the system performance. The key idea behind this dissertation is to identify the moments and locations where drivers are exhibiting different behavior comparing to the normal behavior. The concept of driving volatility is utilized which quantifies deviation from normal driving in terms of variations in speed, acceleration/deceleration, and vehicular jerk. This idea is utilized to explore the association of volatility in different hierarchies of transportation system, i.e.: 1) Instance level; 2) Event level; 3) Driver level; 4) Intersection level; and 5) Network level. In summary, the main contribution of this dissertation is exploring the association of variations in driving behavior in terms of driving volatility at different levels by harnessing big data generated from emerging data sources under real-world condition, which is applicable to the intelligent transportation systems and smart cities. By analyzing real-world crashes/near-crashes and predicting occurrence of extreme event, proactive warnings and feedback can be generated to warn drivers and adjacent vehicles regarding potential hazard. Furthermore, the results of this study help agencies to proactively monitor and evaluate safety performance of the network and identify locations where crashes are waiting to happen. The main objective of this dissertation is to integrate big data generated from emerging sources into safety analysis by considering different levels in the system. To this end, several data sources including Connected Vehicles data (with more than 2.2 billion seconds of observations), naturalistic driving data (with more than 2 million seconds of observations from vehicular kinematics and driver behavior), conventional data on roadway factors and crash data are integrated

Energy aware and privacy preserving protocols for ad hoc networks with applications to disaster management

Disasters can have a serious impact on the functioning of communities and societies. Disaster management aims at providing efficient utilization of resources during pre-disaster (e.g. preparedness and prevention) and post-disaster (e.g. recovery and relief) scenarios to reduce the impact of disasters. Wireless sensors have been extensively used for early detection and prevention of disasters. However, the sensor\u27s operating environment may not always be congenial to these applications. Attackers can observe the traffic flow in the network to determine the location of the sensors and exploit it. For example, in intrusion detection systems, the information can be used to identify coverage gaps and avoid detection. Data source location privacy preservation protocols were designed in this work to address this problem. Using wireless sensors for disaster preparedness, recovery and relief operations can have high deployment costs. Making use of wireless devices (e.g. smartphones and tablets) widely available among people in the affected region is a more practical approach. Disaster preparedness involves dissemination of information among the people to make them aware of the risks they will face in the event of a disaster and how to actively prepare for them. The content is downloaded by the people on their smartphones and tablets for ubiquitous access. As these devices are primarily constrained by their available energy, this work introduces an energy-aware peer-to-peer file sharing protocol for efficient distribution of the content and maximizing the lifetime of the devices. Finally, the ability of the wireless devices to build an ad hoc network for capturing and collecting data for disaster relief and recovery operations was investigated. Specifically, novel energy-adaptive mechanisms were designed for autonomous creation of the ad hoc network, distribution of data capturing task among the devices, and collection of data with minimum delay --Abstract, page iii

Understanding Mobility and Transport Modal Disparities Using Emerging Data Sources: Modelling Potentials and Limitations

Transportation presents a major challenge to curb climate change due in part to its ever-increasing travel demand. Better informed policy-making requires up-to-date empirical mobility data to model viable mitigation options for reducing emissions from the transport sector. On the one hand, the prevalence of digital technologies enables a large-scale collection of human mobility traces, providing big potentials for improving the understanding of mobility patterns and transport modal disparities. On the other hand, the advancement in data science has allowed us to continue pushing the boundary of the potentials and limitations, for new uses of big data in transport.This thesis uses emerging data sources, including Twitter data, traffic data, OpenStreetMap (OSM), and trip data from new transport modes, to enhance the understanding of mobility and transport modal disparities, e.g., how car and public transit support mobility differently. Specifically, this thesis aims to answer two research questions: (1) What are the potentials and limitations of using these emerging data sources for modelling mobility? (2) How can these new data sources be properly modelled for characterising transport modal disparities? Papers I-III model mobility mainly using geotagged social media data, and reveal the potentials and limitations of this data source by validating against established sources (Q1). Papers IV-V combine multiple data sources to characterise transport modal disparities (Q2) which further demonstrate the modelling potentials of the emerging data sources (Q1).Despite a biased population representation and low and irregular sampling of the actual mobility, the geolocations of Twitter data can be used in models to produce good agreements with the other data sources on the fundamental characteristics of individual and population mobility. However, its feasibility for estimating travel demand depends on spatial scale, sparsity, sampling method, and sample size. To extend the use of social media data, this thesis develops two novel approaches to address the sparsity issue: (1) An individual-based mobility model that fills the gaps in the sparse mobility traces for synthetic travel demand; (2) A population-based model that uses Twitter geolocations as attractions instead of trips for estimating the flows of people between regions. This thesis also presents two reproducible data fusion frameworks for characterising transport modal disparities. They demonstrate the power of combining different data sources to gain new insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of travel time disparities between car and public transit, and the competition between ride-sourcing and public transport

Discovering activity patterns in office environment using a network of low-resolution visual sensors

Understanding activity patterns in office environments is important in order to increase workers’ comfort and productivity. This paper proposes an automated system for discovering activity patterns of multiple persons in a work environment using a network of cheap low-resolution visual sensors (900 pixels). Firstly, the users’ locations are obtained from a robust people tracker based on recursive maximum likelihood principles. Secondly, based on the users’ mobility tracks, the high density positions are found using a bivariate kernel density estimation. Then, the hotspots are detected using a confidence region estimation. Thirdly, we analyze the individual’s tracks to find the starting and ending hotspots. The starting and ending hotspots form an observation sequence, where the user’s presence and absence are detected using three powerful Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs). We describe two approaches to identify the user’s status: a single model approach and a two-model mining approach. We evaluate both approaches on video sequences captured in a real work environment, where the persons’ daily routines are recorded over 5 months. We show how the second approach achieves a better performance than the first approach. Routines dominating the entire group’s activities are identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model. We also detect routines which are characteristic of persons. More specifically, we perform various analysis to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events

Few-shot image classification : current status and research trends

Conventional image classification methods usually require a large number of training samples for the training model. However, in practical scenarios, the amount of available sample data is often insufficient, which easily leads to overfitting in network construction. Few-shot learning provides an effective solution to this problem and has been a hot research topic. This paper provides an intensive survey on the state-of-the-art techniques in image classification based on few-shot learning. According to the different deep learning mechanisms, the existing algorithms are di-vided into four categories: transfer learning based, meta-learning based, data augmentation based, and multimodal based methods. Transfer learning based methods transfer useful prior knowledge from the source domain to the target domain. Meta-learning based methods employ past prior knowledge to guide the learning of new tasks. Data augmentation based methods expand the amount of sample data with auxiliary information. Multimodal based methods use the information of the auxiliary modal to facilitate the implementation of image classification tasks. This paper also summarizes the few-shot image datasets available in the literature, and experimental results tested by some representative algorithms are provided to compare their performance and analyze their pros and cons. In addition, the application of existing research outcomes on few-shot image classification in different practical fields are discussed. Finally, a few future research directions are iden-tified. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks with Uncertainty Quantification for Traffic Incident Risk Prediction

Predicting traffic incident risks at granular spatiotemporal levels is challenging. The datasets predominantly feature zero values, indicating no incidents, with sporadic high-risk values for severe incidents. Notably, a majority of current models, especially deep learning methods, focus solely on estimating risk values, overlooking the uncertainties arising from the inherently unpredictable nature of incidents. To tackle this challenge, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Networks (STZITD-GNNs). Our model merges the reliability of traditional statistical models with the flexibility of graph neural networks, aiming to precisely quantify uncertainties associated with road-level traffic incident risks. This model strategically employs a compound model from the Tweedie family, as a Poisson distribution to model risk frequency and a Gamma distribution to account for incident severity. Furthermore, a zero-inflated component helps to identify the non-incident risk scenarios. As a result, the STZITD-GNNs effectively capture the dataset's skewed distribution, placing emphasis on infrequent but impactful severe incidents. Empirical tests using real-world traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that our model excels beyond current benchmarks. The forte of STZITD-GNN resides not only in its accuracy but also in its adeptness at curtailing uncertainties, delivering robust predictions over short (7 days) and extended (14 days) timeframes

HealthPrism: A Visual Analytics System for Exploring Children's Physical and Mental Health Profiles with Multimodal Data

The correlation between children's personal and family characteristics (e.g., demographics and socioeconomic status) and their physical and mental health status has been extensively studied across various research domains, such as public health, medicine, and data science. Such studies can provide insights into the underlying factors affecting children's health and aid in the development of targeted interventions to improve their health outcomes. However, with the availability of multiple data sources, including context data (i.e., the background information of children) and motion data (i.e., sensor data measuring activities of children), new challenges have arisen due to the large-scale, heterogeneous, and multimodal nature of the data. Existing statistical hypothesis-based and learning model-based approaches have been inadequate for comprehensively analyzing the complex correlation between multimodal features and multi-dimensional health outcomes due to the limited information revealed. In this work, we first distill a set of design requirements from multiple levels through conducting a literature review and iteratively interviewing 11 experts from multiple domains (e.g., public health and medicine). Then, we propose HealthPrism, an interactive visual and analytics system for assisting researchers in exploring the importance and influence of various context and motion features on children's health status from multi-level perspectives. Within HealthPrism, a multimodal learning model with a gate mechanism is proposed for health profiling and cross-modality feature importance comparison. A set of visualization components is designed for experts to explore and understand multimodal data freely. We demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of HealthPrism through quantitative evaluation of the model performance, case studies, and expert interviews in associated domains.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, Accepted by IEEE VIS2