7,988 research outputs found

    Recursive search-based identification algorithms for the exponential autoregressive time series model with coloured noise

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    This study focuses on the recursive parameter estimation problems for the non-linear exponential autoregressive model with moving average noise (the ExpARMA model for short). By means of the gradient search, an extended stochastic gradient (ESG) algorithm is derived. Considering the difficulty of determining the step-size in the ESG algorithm, a numerical approach is proposed to obtain the optimal step-size. In order to improve the parameter estimation accuracy, the authors employ the multi-innovation identification theory to develop a multi-innovation ESG (MI-ESG) algorithm for the ExpARMA model. Introducing a forgetting factor into the MI-ESG algorithm, the parameter estimation accuracy can be further improved. With an appropriate innovation length and forgetting factor, the variant of the MI-ESG algorithm is effective to identify all the unknown parameters of the ExpARMA model. A simulation example is provided to test the proposed algorithms

    Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

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    This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

    Optimal control and approximations

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    Optimal control and approximations

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    Meta-heuristic algorithms in car engine design: a literature survey

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    Meta-heuristic algorithms are often inspired by natural phenomena, including the evolution of species in Darwinian natural selection theory, ant behaviors in biology, flock behaviors of some birds, and annealing in metallurgy. Due to their great potential in solving difficult optimization problems, meta-heuristic algorithms have found their way into automobile engine design. There are different optimization problems arising in different areas of car engine management including calibration, control system, fault diagnosis, and modeling. In this paper we review the state-of-the-art applications of different meta-heuristic algorithms in engine management systems. The review covers a wide range of research, including the application of meta-heuristic algorithms in engine calibration, optimizing engine control systems, engine fault diagnosis, and optimizing different parts of engines and modeling. The meta-heuristic algorithms reviewed in this paper include evolutionary algorithms, evolution strategy, evolutionary programming, genetic programming, differential evolution, estimation of distribution algorithm, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization, memetic algorithms, and artificial immune system

    Gradient-based iterative parameter estimation for bilinear-in-parameter systems using the model decomposition technique

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    The parameter estimation issues of a block-oriented non-linear system that is bilinear in the parameters are studied, i.e. the bilinear-in-parameter system. Using the model decomposition technique, the bilinear-in-parameter model is decomposed into two fictitious submodels: one containing the unknown parameters in the non-linear block and the other containing the unknown parameters in the linear dynamic one and the noise model. Then a gradient-based iterative algorithm is proposed to estimate all the unknown parameters by formulating and minimising two criterion functions. The stochastic gradient algorithms are provided for comparison. The simulation results indicate that the proposed iterative algorithm can give higher parameter estimation accuracy than the stochastic gradient algorithms
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