The entangled cyberspace: an integrated approach for predicting cyber-attacks

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonSignificant studies in cyber defence analysis have predominantly revolved around a single linear analysis of information from a single source of evidence (The Network). These studies were limited in their ability to understand the dynamics of entanglements related to cyber-incidents. This research integrates evidence beyond the network in an attempt to understand and predict phases of the kill-chain across the information space. This research provides a multi-dimensional phased analysis of the traditional kill-chain model using structural vector autoregressive models. In the ‘Entangled Cyberspace Framework’, each phase of the kill-chain corresponds to a single dimension of the information space based on time observations of certain events. Events are represented as time signals, where each phase is characterised by multiple time signals representing multiple events on that phase. Multiple time signals are analysed using structural models for multiple time series analysis (Vector Auto-Regressive models). At each phase of the kill-chain, we perform a lagged co-integration analysis of events across the information space. This nature of analysis detects hidden entanglements that characterise events in the kill-chain beyond the network. The measured prediction accuracy and error measured at each stage of the experiment represents the usefulness of selected events in characterising the defined stage of the kill-chain. The entangled cyberspace, in theory, is the fusion of three conceptual foundations: a) A multi-dimensional characterisation of cyberspace, b) A sequential phased model for perpetrating cyber-attacks and c) A structural model for integrating and simultaneously analysing multiple sources of evidence. It starts with the characterisation of the information space into different dimensions of interest. The framework goes further to identify evidence sources across these characterised dimensions and integrates them in the analytical context under consideration (e.g. Malware Injection). The concrete findings show that our approach and analytical methodology are capable of detecting entanglements when applied to a set of entangled activities across the information space. The findings also prove that activities beyond the network have significant effects on the nature of the unfolding cyber-attack vector. The predictive features of events across the kill-chain were also presented in this research as opinion and emotion drivers on the social dimension, packet data details and social and cultural events on the economic layer. Finally, co-integration detected between events across and within dimensions of the information space proves the existence of both inter-dimensional and intra-dimensional entanglements that affect the nature of events unfolding during the kill-chain (from the adversary’s point of view). The novelty of this research rests in the ability to hop across the information space for detecting evidential clues of activities that are related-to cyber-incidents. This research also expands the standard multi-dimensional information space to include SPEC factors as indicators of cyber-incidents. This research improves the current information security management model, specifically in the monitoring, analysis and detection phases. This research provides a methodology that accommodates a robust evidence base for understanding the attack surface. Practically, this research provides a basis for creating applications and tools for protecting critical national infrastructure by integrating data from social platforms, real-world political, cultural and economic events and the cyber-physical

APT Adversarial Defence Mechanism for Industrial IoT Enabled Cyber-Physical System

The objective of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attacks is to exploit Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) in combination with the Industrial Internet of Things (I-IoT) by using fast attack methods. Machine learning (ML) techniques have shown potential in identifying APT attacks in autonomous and malware detection systems. However, detecting hidden APT attacks in the I-IoT-enabled CPS domain and achieving real-time accuracy in detection present significant challenges for these techniques. To overcome these issues, a new approach is suggested that is based on the Graph Attention Network (GAN), a multi-dimensional algorithm that captures behavioral features along with the relevant information that other methods do not deliver. This approach utilizes masked self-attentional layers to address the limitations of prior Deep Learning (DL) methods that rely on convolutions. Two datasets, the DAPT2020 malware, and Edge I-IoT datasets are used to evaluate the approach, and it attains the highest detection accuracy of 96.97% and 95.97%, with prediction time of 20.56 seconds and 21.65 seconds, respectively. The GAN approach is compared to conventional ML algorithms, and simulation results demonstrate a significant performance improvement over these algorithms in the I-IoT-enabled CPS realm

Continuous maintenance and the future – Foundations and technological challenges

High value and long life products require continuous maintenance throughout their life cycle to achieve required performance with optimum through-life cost. This paper presents foundations and technologies required to offer the maintenance service. Component and system level degradation science, assessment and modelling along with life cycle ‘big data’ analytics are the two most important knowledge and skill base required for the continuous maintenance. Advanced computing and visualisation technologies will improve efficiency of the maintenance and reduce through-life cost of the product. Future of continuous maintenance within the Industry 4.0 context also identifies the role of IoT, standards and cyber security

A conceptual framework for cyber counterintelligence

Abstract :D.Com (Computer Science

The future of Cybersecurity in Italy: Strategic focus area

This volume has been created as a continuation of the previous one, with the aim of outlining a set of focus areas and actions that the Italian Nation research community considers essential. The book touches many aspects of cyber security, ranging from the definition of the infrastructure and controls needed to organize cyberdefence to the actions and technologies to be developed to be better protected, from the identification of the main technologies to be defended to the proposal of a set of horizontal actions for training, awareness raising, and risk management

Hybrid Warfare: Battlegrounds of the Future

In the 34-day Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006, Israel's Army, one of the most technologically advanced militaries of the world, was pitted against the fundamentalist Shia Muslim organization Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, a non-state armed group, was armed with high-tech weaponry and other disruptive technologies, such as Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), anti-tank missiles, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that are traditionally used by the regular forces of a country. Hezbollah forces shot down Israeli helicopters, severely damaged a patrol boat with a cruise missile, and destroyed a large number of armored tanks by firing guided missiles from hidden bunkers. The group's guerrillas stood their ground with their hi-tech weaponry and guerrilla tactics. They operated in a decentralised manner at the tactical levels, from both their urban and mountain bases, and shocked the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) with their conventional-cum-unconventional forms of warfare. Israel accepted that it committed a mistake in not adequately preparing for a ‘hybrid' conflict with Hezbollah.2 US Army Chief General George W. Casey said that a new type of war that would become increasingly common in the future would be “a hybrid of irregular warfare and conventional warfare.

Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis

The book includes 13 chapters that look ahead to how NATO can best address the cyber threats, as well as opportunities and challenges from emerging and disruptive technologies in the cyber domain over the next decade. The present volume addresses these conceptual and practical requirements and contributes constructively to the NATO 2030 discussions. The book is arranged in five short parts...All the chapters in this book have undergone double-blind peer review by at least two external experts.https://scholarworks.wm.edu/asbook/1038/thumbnail.jp