A CGE Analysis of the Harbinson Proposal: Outcomes for the EU25

In this study, we employ the Harbinson proposal and July Framework to compare a ‘likely’ Doha scenario with an ‘inclusive’ baseline. The key aim is to assess the impacts across EU member states. More specifically, we (i) employ the latest version 6 of the GTAP database, (ii) explicitly model CAP mechanisms (e.g., quotas, decoupled payments, set-aside, CAP budget etc.) to more accurately assess the asymmetric trade led welfare effects on selected EU member states, and (iii) introduce binding overhangs into domestic support, export subsidies and more importantly market access commitments. Whilst the EU regions benefit from the multilateral reform proposals, the gains are weakened considerably by the tariff binding overhangs, where the EU25 only gain ten per cent of their potential trade led welfare gain from the proposals. On this basis, a more positive stance must be applied if the Doha Reforms are to yield a meaningful outcome for all.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Strategic analysis and knowledge support systems for rural development strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa

"While greater growth in agriculture and the broader rural sector is crucial for ameliorating Africa's high levels of poverty and malnutrition, developing strategies to achieve these objectives is hindered by a number of factors, including the broad array of interventions needed, the lack of accurate data, and dearth of trained local policy analysts. As such, this paper proposes a Strategic Analysis Knowledge Support System (SAKSS) in which data, tools, and knowledge are compiled, analyzed, and disseminated for the purposes of identifying a set of priority investment and policy options to promote agricultural growth and rural development. These analyses can in turn help inform the broader process of designing, implementing, and monitoring and evaluating a country's rural development strategy. In order to be an influential and sustainable part of this process and become a genuine "knowledge system," SAKSS will need to be established with an awareness of each country s development priorities and unique political, social, and economic context. By institutionalizing SAKSS through a network structure that includes government ministries, research institutions, universities, regional organizations, non-governmental organizations, and donors, SAKSS can become not only more relevant and legitimate for its intended end-users but also help strengthen local analytical capacity to inform the policy debate on future development strategies and outcomes." Authors' AbstractAgricultural growth ,Strategic analysis ,Development policies Africa, Sub-Saharan ,

Regionalism

"In this paper, we review the debate on "new regionalism," focusing on the tools used to evaluate regional trade agreements (RTAs). We find that much analysis uses tools from old trade theory in the Viner-Meade tradition, focusing on trade creation, trade diversion, and terms-of-trade effects. These tools are adequate for the analysis of the effects of removing commodity trade barriers ("shallow" integration), but the comfortable Viner-Meade framework misses many of the impacts associated with new regionalism, which typically involves "deep integration," often between developing and developed countries. A framework for analyzing new regionalism should include dynamic changes such as trade-productivity links and endogenous growth theory, international factor mobility, the role of imperfect competition, rent seeking behavior, and political-economy considerations such as potential conflicts between regionalism and multilateralism. Agriculture poses problems for new regionalism because of high tariffs, the use of domestic subsidies and entrenched special interest groups, but the role of trade liberalization on its productivity is often overlooked. For developing countries, a crucial issue is whether and how regionalism can be part of a successful development strategy. While "new trade theory" is concerned with a number of the issues relevant to new regionalism, and is providing new tools, the work is eclectic and is far from providing a unified framework for empirical analysis of new regionalism. Both theoretical and empirical research is needed to improve the reach and scope of new trade theory applied to issues of new regionalism." Authors' AbstractRegionalism. ,Regional trade agreements ,Terms of trade. ,

Regional Trade Agreements and U.S. Agriculture

Regional trade agreements (RTA's) have become a fixture in the global trade arena. Their advocates contend that RTA's can serve as building blocks for multilateral trade liberalization. Their opponents argue that these trade pacts will divert trade from more efficient nonmember producing countries. U.S. agriculture can benefit from participating in RTA's and may lose when it does not. Agriculture is an important source of potential U.S. gains from RTA's. While the United States, as a global trader with diverse trade partners, can gain potentially more from global free trade than from RTA's, many recent RTA's have been more comprehensive in their liberalization of agricultural trade liberalization than the Uruguay Round. A strong multilateral process can help ensure that RTA's are trade creating, rather than protectionist.International Relations/Trade,

The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters

This paper examines the potential benefits and costs of providing duty-free, quota-free market access to the least developed countries (LDCs), and the effects of extending eligibility to other small and poor countries. Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model, it assesses the impact of scenarios involving different levels of coverage for products, recipient countries, and preference-giving countries on participating countries, as well as competing developing countries that are excluded. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the role that rich and emerging countries could play in helping poor countries to improve their trade performance and to assess the distribution of costs and benefits for developing countries and whether the potential costs for domestic producers are in line with political feasibility in preference-giving countries.CGE modeling, trade policy, duty-free market access, technical barriers to trade,preference erosion

Dragon by the Tail, Dragon by the Head, Bilateralism and Globalism in East Asia

In this paper, we examine the bilateral implications of regional and global trade arrangements in the East Asian context. Using a dynamic global CGE model, we examine a variety of trade scenarios, in terms of bilateral relations between China and two of its most populace regional partners, Vietnam and Japan. Given the differences between the latter two economies, it might be reasonable to expect divergence in the bilateral outcomes. Our findings indicate that differences in initial conditions can indeed have a significant impact on bilateral adjustments, and that these can be adverse for some partners in the absence of policies that promote trade complementarity. By the latter we mean bilateral import and export patterns where the aggregate grows faster for each country than their total trade, but which help sustain bilateral balance of payments equilibrium.Dragon; Head; Bilateralism; Globalism

On boxes, contents, and users

An important component of the current debate about agriculture trade negotiations is whether further liberalization of trade and agricultural policies may help or hinder food security in WTO member countries. These concerns were formulated first, in Article 20 of the Agreement on Agriculture negotiated during the Uruguay Round, which indicated that negotiations should take into consideration, among other things, "non trade concerns"; and in its preamble, which mentioned as examples of those concerns, "food security and the need to protect the environment". They were also reaffirmed in the Doha Declaration, which declares that "the long-term objective" is "to establish a fair and market-oriented trading system through a program of fundamental reform", and confirmed that special and differential treatment will be granted to developing countries "to effectively take account of their development needs, including food security and rural development". Although the issue of food security and agricultural negotiations within the WTO has been raised both by industrialized ("multifunctionality" of agriculture) and developing countries, the discussion in the case of developing countries has included important policy objectives such as elimination of poverty and hunger (as cause and consequence of food insecurity). Concerned with the effects that further negotiations would have on the attainment of those objectives in poor countries, several developing countries have proposed the creation of a "Development Box" or a "Food Security Box". To contribute to this debate, the paper surveys and discusses in greater detail three main aspects of trade liberalization and food security within the WTO: the adequacy of the current WTO classification of countries according to their food security situation; the policy perspectives in industrialized countries and in developing countries; and the legal issues faced by developing countries. The paper concludes that a better classification is needed within the WTO to target food insecure countries, that many food security concerns can be addressed with specific clarifications and changes in the current language of the AoA, and that although developing countries may not be legally constrained to invest in food security, they lack the financial, human, and institutional resources to do so.World Trade Organization ,Poverty alleviation ,food security ,trade liberalization ,

Impacts of Local Resource Scarcity Risk on Global Trade Network

Local resource scarcity risk can transcend beyond national borders through international trade activities. However, there lacks a system-based approach to evaluate such risk posed from local resource scarcity to the trade-connected global economy. Using water resource as an example, this research develops a probabilistic framework to examine the impacts of local resource scarcity risk on the global trade network. Impacts of both country-level and basin-level local water scarcity risk on the global trade network are evaluated based on the data from Eora database, AQUASTAT database, and Water Footprint Network. The results identify top country-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk exports, including agriculture in major economies including Colombia, USA, Italy, France and Spain, which are critical for the resilience of the global economy against water scarcity risks. The results also identify top country-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk imports, showing the vulnerable sectors to local water scarcity risks of upstream suppliers. In addition, the basin model identifies the importance of local water scarcity risks of international basins, which indicates a need in peaceful cross-border cooperation to mitigate water scarcity risks. Overall, these findings provide implications to policy makers and corporate executives in developing strategies for mitigating water scarcity risks.Master of ScienceNatural Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/117669/1/Impacts of Local Resource Scarcity Risk on Global Trade Network_ZeqiZhu.pd