Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks-Diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river

The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of environmental design alternatives for environmental flows (eflows) and physical habitat remediation measures in the Mandalselva River in Norway. We demonstrate how MCDA using multi-attribute value functions can be implemented in a Bayesian network with decision and utility nodes. An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to integrate impacts computed in quantitative sub-models of hydropower revenues and Atlantic salmon smolt production and qualitative judgement models of mesohabitat fishability and riverscape aesthetics. We show how conditional probability tables are useful for modelling uncertainty in value scaling functions, and variance in criteria weights due to different stakeholder preferences. While the paper demonstrates the technical feasibility of MCDA in a BN, we also discuss the challenge

The European Fish Hazard Index – An assessment tool for screening hazard of hydropower plants for fish

Hydroelectricity is critical for decarbonizing global energy production, but hydropower plants affect rivers, disrupt their continuity, and threaten migrating fishes. This puts hydroelectricity production in conflict with efforts to protect threatened species and re-connect fragmented ecosystems. Assessing the impact of hydropower on fishes will support informed decision-making during planning, commissioning, and operation of hydropower facilities. Few methods estimate mortalities of single species passing through hydropower turbines, but no commonly agreed tool assesses hazards of hydropower plants for fish populations. The European Fish Hazard Index bridges this gap. This assessment tool for screening ecological risk considers constellation specific effects of plant design and operation, the sensitivity and mortality of fish species and overarching conservation and environmental development targets for a river. Further, it facilitates impact mitigation of new and existing hydropower plants of various types across Europe

Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) for the sustainable management of water withdrawals in Alpine watercourses

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk

Building on the comprehensive approach taken in World Water Development Reports (WWDRs) 1 and 2, and the holistic view taken in WWDR3, this fourth edition gives an account of the critical issues facing water's challenge areas and different regions and incorporates a deeper analysis of the external forces (i.e. drivers) linked to water. In doing so, the WWDR4 seeks to inform readers and raise awareness of the new threats arising from accelerated change and of the interconnected forces that create uncertainty and risk - ultimately emphasizing that these forces can be managed effectively and can even generate vital opportunities and benefits through innovative approaches to allocation, use and management of water

Secure and Sustainable Energy System

This special issue aims to contribute to the climate actions which called for the need to address Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, keeping global warming to well below 2°C through various means, including accelerating renewables, clean fuels, and clean technologies into the entire energy system. As long as fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) are still used in the foreseeable future, it is vital to ensure that these fossil fuels are used cleanly through abated technologies. Financing the clean and energy transition technologies is vital to ensure the smooth transition towards net zero emission by 2050 or beyond. The lack of long‐term financing, the low rate of return, the existence of various risks, and the lack of capacity of market players are major challenges to developing sustainable energy systems.This special collected 17 high-quality empirical studies that assess the challenges for developing secure and sustainable energy systems and provide practical policy recommendations. The editors of this special issue wish to thank the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) for funding several papers that were published in this special issue

Impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and developing adaptation measures through hydrologic modeling and multi-objective optimization

The climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors is driving governments and policy-makers to provide additional thrust on renewable energy. Hydropower, which is the dominant renewable component of the energy-mix, is also under threat due to the changing climate conditions. The present study aims to quantify the impact of climate change on hydropower generation, the associated revenues and subsequently suggest the adaptation measures through adaptive reservoir management. A modeling chain consisting of hydrologic and hydropower simulation models is adopted to evaluate the impacts of projected climate change on hydropower generation. Calibrated hydrologic models forced with the climate data from various climate models have been widely employed for future streamflow projection. A reliable modelling framework should ensure the simulation of reality with limited uncertainty, thus enhancing its predictive ability. In the literature, the hydrologic model assessment is reported to be inadequate when carried out based on only statistical objectives or limited number of evaluation metrics. In the present research, the thrust is given on improving the hydrologic model simulation through model diagnostic assessment, incorporating hydrologic signatures and multi-objective model calibration. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) is coupled with the hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to perform model calibration. The methodology was first tested for Saugeen River watershed in Southern Ontario and then applied to the Magpie River watershed model located in Northern Ontario. The uncertainties contributed by the hydrologic models have generally been given a lesser focus in climate change impact analysis. In the present research, the uncertainty emanating from model parameters was investigated and found to dominate during some periods. The accounting of hydrologic model uncertainty is found to be vital for providing an improved assessment. Steephill Falls hydroelectric project located on Magpie River in Northern Ontario is considered as a case study for assessing climate change impacts on hydropower. The results show that the annual generation is not considerably affected but there is a significant seasonal redistribution on energy production. The changes in the hydropower revenues compared to the present level for the four seasons viz., winter, spring, summer and autumn are estimated to be 21.1%, 18.4%, -13.4% and -15.9%, respectively, for mid-century and 23.1%, 19.5%, -20.1% and -22.9% for end-century scenarios. In order to reduce the vulnerability of hydropower system to climate change and consequently mitigate the impacts, it will be profitable for the project owners to provide suitable adaptation measures. Adaptive reservoir management through multi-objective optimization of reservoir level was found to be an effective approach to develop adaptation measures provided additional live storage is made available. It also reduced the vulnerability of the system to climate change by 24%. The seasonal alteration in the energy production will require the project owners to arrange modification in power purchase/sharing agreement with the buyers

Water Security and Governance in Catchments

This book addresses several issues on water security and governance, helping readers to understand how the desire for water-secure basins can be accomplished through an interplay of water security, water resources management and water policies. The book contains a collection of 12 papers addressing specific as well as interlinked topics within the Special Issue scope. The editors are grateful to all contributors who made the book a reality