132,692 research outputs found
Linked lives: the utility of an agent-based approach to modelling partnership and household formation in the context of social care
The UK’s population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of “linked lives” and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes
Recommended from our members
Education as a Complex System: Conceptual and Methodological Implications
Education is a complex system, which has conceptual and methodological implications for education research and policy. In this article, an overview is first provided of the Complex Systems Conceptual Framework for Learning (CSCFL), which consists of a set of conceptual perspectives that are generally shared by educational complex systems, organized into two focus areas: collective behaviors of a system, and behaviors of individual agents in a system. Complexity and research methodologies for education are then considered, and it is observed that commonly used quantitative and qualitative techniques are generally appropriate for studying linear dynamics of educational systems. However, it is proposed that computational modeling approaches, being extensively used for studying nonlinear characteristics of complex systems in other fields, can provide a methodological complement to quantitative and qualitative education research approaches. Two research case studies of this approach are discussed. We conclude with a consideration of how viewing education as a complex system using complex systems’ conceptual and methodological tools can help advance education research and also inform policy
Simulation of population’s reproductive behaviour patterns within an agent-oriented regional model
The study focuses on the research on how the unevenness of demographic transition affects the social and demographic characteristics and their dynamics of a region’s population. The research was conducted by means of computerized experiments (simulations) set within an original agent-oriented model. The study features the structure of the model represented by an artificial society, with its members (agents) being attributed their personal characteristics in such a way that they would imitate the gender and age of the region’s population. The agents are divided into two groups which differ in their reproductive strategy. Agents from Group 1 adhere to the traditional strategy characterized by a high birth rate, while the agents from Group 2 follow the modern strategy resulting in a markedly low birth rate. With the application of probabilistic mechanisms, the natural birth-death processes are imitated within the model. The extinction of agents occurs in accordance with the death rates adjusted for age and gender but remaining the same for the whole population. In the model, the appearance of new agents (birth of children) results from the choice made by reproductive-aged female agents, and their choice is influenced by the subjective traits determined by their group. The age and social structure of the regional population are generally formed as a result of the aggregation of particular agents’ activity. The model has been applied in a range of experiments on forecasting the number and structure of the population in an assumed region. The results showed that despite the apparent simplification of the reality, the developed agent-oriented model correctly represents both the initial condition of the regional population including the gender, age and social structure and the dynamics of the population’s basic characteristics.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 14-18-01968)
Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...
There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical,
operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications.
The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in
other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and
complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand,
and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are
applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from
computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of
geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of
urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in
operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these
methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems.
This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic
simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this
field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and
complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational
land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown
are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale
dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and
cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a
system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of
residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model
mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to
interface with meso-models at a higher scale
Learning and coordinating in a multilayer network
We introduce a two layer network model for social coordination incorporating
two relevant ingredients: a) different networks of interaction to learn and to
obtain a payoff , and b) decision making processes based both on social and
strategic motivations. Two populations of agents are distributed in two layers
with intralayer learning processes and playing interlayer a coordination game.
We find that the skepticism about the wisdom of crowd and the local
connectivity are the driving forces to accomplish full coordination of the two
populations, while polarized coordinated layers are only possible for
all-to-all interactions. Local interactions also allow for full coordination in
the socially efficient Pareto-dominant strategy in spite of being the riskier
one
Diffusion processes in demographic transitions: a prospect on using multi agent simulation to explore the role of cognitive strategies and social interactions
Multi agent simulation (MAS) is a tool that can be used to explore the dynamics of different systems. Considering that many demographic phenomena have roots in individual choice behaviour and social interactions it is important that this behaviour is being translated in agent rules. Several behaviour theories are relevant in this context, and hence there is a necessity of using a meta-theory of behaviour as a framework for the development of agent rules. The consumat approach provides a basis for such a framework, as is demonstrated with a discussion of modelling the diffusion of contraceptives. These diffusion processes are strongly influenced by social processes and cognitive strategies. Different possible research lines are discussed which might be addressed with a multi-agent approach like the consumats.
The Impact of HIV/AIDS in the Context of Socioeconomic Stressors: an Evidence-Driven Approach
In this paper, we present an agent-based simulation model of the social impacts of HIV/AIDS in villages in the Sekhukhune district of the Limpopo province in South Africa. AIDS is a major concern in South Africa, not just in terms of disease spread but also in term of its impact on society and economic development. The impact of the disease cannot however be considered in isolation from other stresses, such as food insecurity, high climate variability, market fluctuations and variations in support from government and non-government sources. The model described in this paper focuses on decisions made at the individual and household level, based upon evidence from detailed case studies, and the different types of networks between these players that influence their decision making. Key to the model is that these networks are dynamic and co-evolving, something that has rarely been considered in social network analysis. The results presented here demonstrate how this type of simulation can aid better understanding of this complex interplay of issues. In turn, we hope that this will prove to be a powerful tool for policy development.Agent-Based Social Simulation, Evidence-Driven Modeling, Socioeconomic Stressors, HIV/AIDS Impact
- …