The Effect of Biased Communications On Both Trusting and Suspicious Voters

In recent studies of political decision-making, apparently anomalous behavior has been observed on the part of voters, in which negative information about a candidate strengthens, rather than weakens, a prior positive opinion about the candidate. This behavior appears to run counter to rational models of decision making, and it is sometimes interpreted as evidence of non-rational "motivated reasoning". We consider scenarios in which this effect arises in a model of rational decision making which includes the possibility of deceptive information. In particular, we will consider a model in which there are two classes of voters, which we will call trusting voters and suspicious voters, and two types of information sources, which we will call unbiased sources and biased sources. In our model, new data about a candidate can be efficiently incorporated by a trusting voter, and anomalous updates are impossible; however, anomalous updates can be made by suspicious voters, if the information source mistakenly plans for an audience of trusting voters, and if the partisan goals of the information source are known by the suspicious voter to be "opposite" to his own. Our model is based on a formalism introduced by the artificial intelligence community called "multi-agent influence diagrams", which generalize Bayesian networks to settings involving multiple agents with distinct goals

Uncertain information combination for decision making in smart grid BDI agent systems

In a smart grid SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system, sensor information (e.g. temperature, voltage, frequency, etc.) from heterogeneous sources can be used to reason about the true system state (e.g. faults, attacks, etc.). Before this is possible, it is necessary to combine information in a consistent way. However, information may be uncertain or incomplete while the sensors may be unreliable or conflicting. To address these issues, we apply Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory to model the information from each source as a mass function. Each mass function is then discounted to reflect the reliability of the source. Finally, relevant mass functions (after evidence propagation) are combined using a context-dependent combination rule to produce a single combined mass function used for reasoning. We model a smart grid SCADA system in the belief-desire-intention (BDI) multi-agent framework to demonstrate how our approach can be used to handle the combined uncertain sensor information. In particular, the combined mass function is transformed into a probability distribution for decision-making. Based on this result, the agent can determine which state is most plausible and insert a corresponding AgentSpeak belief atom into its belief base. These beliefs about the environment affect the selection of predefined plans, which in turn determine how the agent will behave. We also identify conditions when a combination should occur to ensure the reactiveness of the agent

Using evidence combination for transformer defect diagnosis

This paper describes a number of methods of evidence combination, and their applicability to the domain of transformer defect diagnosis. It explains how evidence combination fits into an on-line and implemented agent-based condition monitoring system, and the benefits of giving selected agents reflective abilities. Reflection has not previously been deployed in an industrial setting, and theoretical work has been in domains other than power engineering. This paper presents the results of implementing five different methods of evidence combination, showing that reflective techniques give greater accuracy than non-reflective

Exploiting Domain Knowledge in Making Delegation Decisions

@inproceedings{conf/admi/EmeleNSP11, added-at = {2011-12-19T00:00:00.000+0100}, author = {Emele, Chukwuemeka David and Norman, Timothy J. and Sensoy, Murat and Parsons, Simon}, biburl = {http://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/20a08b683088443f1fd36d6ef28bf6615/dblp}, booktitle = {ADMI}, crossref = {conf/admi/2011}, editor = {Cao, Longbing and Bazzan, Ana L. C. and Symeonidis, Andreas L. and Gorodetsky, Vladimir and Weiss, Gerhard and Yu, Philip S.}, ee = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27609-5_9}, interhash = {1d7e7f8554e8bdb3d43c32e02aeabcec}, intrahash = {0a08b683088443f1fd36d6ef28bf6615}, isbn = {978-3-642-27608-8}, keywords = {dblp}, pages = {117-131}, publisher = {Springer}, series = {Lecture Notes in Computer Science}, timestamp = {2011-12-19T00:00:00.000+0100}, title = {Exploiting Domain Knowledge in Making Delegation Decisions.}, url = {http://dblp.uni-trier.de/db/conf/admi/admi2011.html#EmeleNSP11}, volume = 7103, year = 2011 }Postprin

KEMNAD: A Knowledge Engineering Methodology for Negotiating Agent Development

Automated negotiation is widely applied in various domains. However, the development of such systems is a complex knowledge and software engineering task. So, a methodology there will be helpful. Unfortunately, none of existing methodologies can offer sufficient, detailed support for such system development. To remove this limitation, this paper develops a new methodology made up of: (1) a generic framework (architectural pattern) for the main task, and (2) a library of modular and reusable design pattern (templates) of subtasks. Thus, it is much easier to build a negotiating agent by assembling these standardised components rather than reinventing the wheel each time. Moreover, since these patterns are identified from a wide variety of existing negotiating agents(especially high impact ones), they can also improve the quality of the final systems developed. In addition, our methodology reveals what types of domain knowledge need to be input into the negotiating agents. This in turn provides a basis for developing techniques to acquire the domain knowledge from human users. This is important because negotiation agents act faithfully on the behalf of their human users and thus the relevant domain knowledge must be acquired from the human users. Finally, our methodology is validated with one high impact system

Learning policy constraints through dialogue

Publisher PD

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and eco- nomics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptual- ization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering