7,609 research outputs found
CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting
Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This
crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences
including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family
problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in
need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid
overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types
of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives
and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel
spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging
the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model
incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation
subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called
"community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be
optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition,
our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what
communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as
how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two
real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior
forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of
spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid
overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201
STAR: A Concise Deep Learning Framework for Citywide Human Mobility Prediction
Human mobility forecasting in a city is of utmost importance to
transportation and public safety, but with the process of urbanization and the
generation of big data, intensive computing and determination of mobility
pattern have become challenging. This study focuses on how to improve the
accuracy and efficiency of predicting citywide human mobility via a simpler
solution. A spatio-temporal mobility event prediction framework based on a
single fully-convolutional residual network (STAR) is proposed. STAR is a
highly simple, general and effective method for learning a single tensor
representing the mobility event. Residual learning is utilized for training the
deep network to derive the detailed result for scenarios of citywide
prediction. Extensive benchmark evaluation results on real-world data
demonstrate that STAR outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in single- and
multi-step prediction while utilizing fewer parameters and achieving higher
efficiency.Comment: Accepted by MDM 201
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