From real data to remaining useful life estimation : an approach combining neuro-fuzzy predictions and evidential Markovian classifications.

International audienceThis paper deals with the proposition of a prognostic approach that enables to face up to the problem of lack of information and missing prior knowledge. Developments rely on the assumption that real data can be gathered from the system (online). The approach consists in three phases. An information theory-based criterion is first used to isolate the most useful observations with regards to the functioning modes of the system (feature selection step). An evolving neuro-fuzzy system is then used for online prediction of observations at any horizons (prediction step). The predicted observations are classified into the possible functioning modes using an evidential Markovian classifier based on Dempster-Shafer theory (classification step). The whole is illustrated on a problem concerning the prediction of an engine health. The approach appears to be very efficient since it enables to early but accurately estimate the failure instant, even with few learning data

A neuro-fuzzy self built system for prognostics : a way to ensure good prediction accuracy by balancing complexity and generalization.

International audienceIn maintenance field, prognostics is recognized as a key feature as the prediction of the remaining useful life of a system allows avoiding inopportune maintenance spending. However, it can be a non trivial task to develop and implement effective prognostics models including the inherent uncertainty of prognostics. Moreover, there is no systematic way to construct a prognostics tool since the user can make some assumptions: choice of a structure, initialization of parameters... This last problem is addressed in the paper: how to build a prognostics system with no human intervention, neither a priori knowledge? The proposition is based on the use of a neuro-fuzzy predictor whose architecture is partially determined thanks to a statistical approach based on the Akaike information criterion. It consists in using a cost function in the learning phase in order to automatically generate an accurate prediction system that reaches a compromise between complexity and generalization capability. The proposition is illustrated and discussed

Online Ensemble Learning of Sensorimotor Contingencies

Forward models play a key role in cognitive agents by providing predictions of the sensory consequences of motor commands, also known as sensorimotor contingencies (SMCs). In continuously evolving environments, the ability to anticipate is fundamental in distinguishing cognitive from reactive agents, and it is particularly relevant for autonomous robots, that must be able to adapt their models in an online manner. Online learning skills, high accuracy of the forward models and multiple-step-ahead predictions are needed to enhance the robots’ anticipation capabilities. We propose an online heterogeneous ensemble learning method for building accurate forward models of SMCs relating motor commands to effects in robots’ sensorimotor system, in particular considering proprioception and vision. Our method achieves up to 98% higher accuracy both in short and long term predictions, compared to single predictors and other online and offline homogeneous ensembles. This method is validated on two different humanoid robots, namely the iCub and the Baxter

Online Tool Condition Monitoring Based on Parsimonious Ensemble+

Accurate diagnosis of tool wear in metal turning process remains an open challenge for both scientists and industrial practitioners because of inhomogeneities in workpiece material, nonstationary machining settings to suit production requirements, and nonlinear relations between measured variables and tool wear. Common methodologies for tool condition monitoring still rely on batch approaches which cannot cope with a fast sampling rate of metal cutting process. Furthermore they require a retraining process to be completed from scratch when dealing with a new set of machining parameters. This paper presents an online tool condition monitoring approach based on Parsimonious Ensemble+, pENsemble+. The unique feature of pENsemble+ lies in its highly flexible principle where both ensemble structure and base-classifier structure can automatically grow and shrink on the fly based on the characteristics of data streams. Moreover, the online feature selection scenario is integrated to actively sample relevant input attributes. The paper presents advancement of a newly developed ensemble learning algorithm, pENsemble+, where online active learning scenario is incorporated to reduce operator labelling effort. The ensemble merging scenario is proposed which allows reduction of ensemble complexity while retaining its diversity. Experimental studies utilising real-world manufacturing data streams and comparisons with well known algorithms were carried out. Furthermore, the efficacy of pENsemble was examined using benchmark concept drift data streams. It has been found that pENsemble+ incurs low structural complexity and results in a significant reduction of operator labelling effort.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic

Non-linear predictive control for manufacturing and robotic applications

The paper discusses predictive control algorithms in the context of applications to robotics and manufacturing systems. Special features of such systems, as compared to traditional process control applications, require that the algorithms are capable of dealing with faster dynamics, more significant unstabilities and more significant contribution of non-linearities to the system performance. The paper presents the general framework for state-space design of predictive algorithms. Linear algorithms are introduced first, then, the attention moves to non-linear systems. Methods of predictive control are presented which are based on the state-dependent state space system description. Those are illustrated on examples of rather difficult mechanical systems

Prognostics in switching systems: Evidential markovian classification of real-time neuro-fuzzy predictions.

International audienceCondition-based maintenance is nowadays considered as a key-process in maintenance strategies and prognostics appears to be a very promising activity as it should permit to not engage inopportune spending. Various approaches have been developed and data-driven methods are increasingly applied. The training step of these methods generally requires huge datasets since a lot of methods rely on probability theory and/or on artificial neural networks. This step is thus time-consuming and generally made in batch mode which can be restrictive in practical application when few data are available. A method for prognostics is proposed to face up this problem of lack of information and missing prior knowledge. The approach is based on the integration of three complementary modules and aims at predicting the failure mode early while the system can switch between several functioning modes. The three modules are: 1) observation selection based on information theory and Choquet Integral, 2) prediction relying on an evolving real-time neuro-fuzzy system and 3) classification into one of the possible functioning modes using an evidential Markovian classifier based on Dempster-Shafer theory. Experiments concern the prediction of an engine health based on more than twenty observations

A Human Driver Model for Autonomous Lane Changing in Highways: Predictive Fuzzy Markov Game Driving Strategy

This study presents an integrated hybrid solution to mandatory lane changing problem to deal with accident avoidance by choosing a safe gap in highway driving. To manage this, a comprehensive treatment to a lane change active safety design is proposed from dynamics, control, and decision making aspects. My effort first goes on driver behaviors and relating human reasoning of threat in driving for modeling a decision making strategy. It consists of two main parts; threat assessment in traffic participants, (TV s) states, and decision making. The first part utilizes an complementary threat assessment of TV s, relative to the subject vehicle, SV , by evaluating the traffic quantities. Then I propose a decision strategy, which is based on Markov decision processes (MDPs) that abstract the traffic environment with a set of actions, transition probabilities, and corresponding utility rewards. Further, the interactions of the TV s are employed to set up a real traffic condition by using game theoretic approach. The question to be addressed here is that how an autonomous vehicle optimally interacts with the surrounding vehicles for a gap selection so that more effective performance of the overall traffic flow can be captured. Finding a safe gap is performed via maximizing an objective function among several candidates. A future prediction engine thus is embedded in the design, which simulates and seeks for a solution such that the objective function is maximized at each time step over a horizon. The combined system therefore forms a predictive fuzzy Markov game (FMG) since it is to perform a predictive interactive driving strategy to avoid accidents for a given traffic environment. I show the effect of interactions in decision making process by proposing both cooperative and non-cooperative Markov game strategies for enhanced traffic safety and mobility. This level is called the higher level controller. I further focus on generating a driver controller to complement the automated car’s safe driving. To compute this, model predictive controller (MPC) is utilized. The success of the combined decision process and trajectory generation is evaluated with a set of different traffic scenarios in dSPACE virtual driving environment. Next, I consider designing an active front steering (AFS) and direct yaw moment control (DYC) as the lower level controller that performs a lane change task with enhanced handling performance in the presence of varying front and rear cornering stiffnesses. I propose a new control scheme that integrates active front steering and the direct yaw moment control to enhance the vehicle handling and stability. I obtain the nonlinear tire forces with Pacejka model, and convert the nonlinear tire stiffnesses to parameter space to design a linear parameter varying controller (LPV) for combined AFS and DYC to perform a commanded lane change task. Further, the nonlinear vehicle lateral dynamics is modeled with Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) framework. A state-feedback fuzzy H∞ controller is designed for both stability and tracking reference. Simulation study confirms that the performance of the proposed methods is quite satisfactory

Nonparametric identification of linearizations and uncertainty using Gaussian process models – application to robust wheel slip control

Gaussian process prior models offer a nonparametric approach to modelling unknown nonlinear systems from experimental data. These are flexible models which automatically adapt their model complexity to the available data, and which give not only mean predictions but also the variance of these predictions. A further advantage is the analytical derivation of derivatives of the model with respect to inputs, with their variance, providing a direct estimate of the locally linearized model with its corresponding parameter variance. We show how this can be used to tune a controller based on the linearized models, taking into account their uncertainty. The approach is applied to a simulated wheel slip control task illustrating controller development based on a nonparametric model of the unknown friction nonlinearity. Local stability and robustness of the controllers are tuned based on the uncertainty of the nonlinear models’ derivatives