Using graphical models and multi-attribute utility theory for probabilistic uncertainty handling in large systems, with application to nuclear emergency management

Although many decision-making problems involve uncertainty, uncertainty handling within large decision support systems (DSSs) is challenging. One domain where uncertainty handling is critical is emergency response management, in particular nuclear emergency response, where decision making takes place in an uncertain, dynamically changing environment. Assimilation and analysis of data can help to reduce these uncertainties, but it is critical to do this in an efficient and defensible way. After briefly introducing the structure of a typical DSS for nuclear emergencies, the paper sets up a theoretical structure that enables a formal Bayesian decision analysis to be performed for environments like this within a DSS architecture. In such probabilistic DSSs many input conditional probability distributions are provided by different sets of experts overseeing different aspects of the emergency. These probabilities are then used by the decision maker (DM) to find her optimal decision. We demonstrate in this paper that unless due care is taken in such a composite framework, coherence and rationality may be compromised in a sense made explicit below. The technology we describe here builds a framework around which Bayesian data updating can be performed in a modular way, ensuring both coherence and efficiency, and provides sufficient unambiguous information to enable the DM to discover her expected utility maximizing policy

Decision-Making with Belief Functions: a Review

Approaches to decision-making under uncertainty in the belief function framework are reviewed. Most methods are shown to blend criteria for decision under ignorance with the maximum expected utility principle of Bayesian decision theory. A distinction is made between methods that construct a complete preference relation among acts, and those that allow incomparability of some acts due to lack of information. Methods developed in the imprecise probability framework are applicable in the Dempster-Shafer context and are also reviewed. Shafer's constructive decision theory, which substitutes the notion of goal for that of utility, is described and contrasted with other approaches. The paper ends by pointing out the need to carry out deeper investigation of fundamental issues related to decision-making with belief functions and to assess the descriptive, normative and prescriptive values of the different approaches

Intertemporal Choice of Fuzzy Soft Sets

This paper first merges two noteworthy aspects of choice. On the one hand, soft sets and fuzzy soft sets are popular models that have been largely applied to decision making problems, such as real estate valuation, medical diagnosis (glaucoma, prostate cancer, etc.), data mining, or international trade. They provide crisp or fuzzy parameterized descriptions of the universe of alternatives. On the other hand, in many decisions, costs and benefits occur at different points in time. This brings about intertemporal choices, which may involve an indefinitely large number of periods. However, the literature does not provide a model, let alone a solution, to the intertemporal problem when the alternatives are described by (fuzzy) parameterizations. In this paper, we propose a novel soft set inspired model that applies to the intertemporal framework, hence it fills an important gap in the development of fuzzy soft set theory. An algorithm allows the selection of the optimal option in intertemporal choice problems with an infinite time horizon. We illustrate its application with a numerical example involving alternative portfolios of projects that a public administration may undertake. This allows us to establish a pioneering intertemporal model of choice in the framework of extended fuzzy set theorie

Interpretable multiclass classification by MDL-based rule lists

Interpretable classifiers have recently witnessed an increase in attention from the data mining community because they are inherently easier to understand and explain than their more complex counterparts. Examples of interpretable classification models include decision trees, rule sets, and rule lists. Learning such models often involves optimizing hyperparameters, which typically requires substantial amounts of data and may result in relatively large models. In this paper, we consider the problem of learning compact yet accurate probabilistic rule lists for multiclass classification. Specifically, we propose a novel formalization based on probabilistic rule lists and the minimum description length (MDL) principle. This results in virtually parameter-free model selection that naturally allows to trade-off model complexity with goodness of fit, by which overfitting and the need for hyperparameter tuning are effectively avoided. Finally, we introduce the Classy algorithm, which greedily finds rule lists according to the proposed criterion. We empirically demonstrate that Classy selects small probabilistic rule lists that outperform state-of-the-art classifiers when it comes to the combination of predictive performance and interpretability. We show that Classy is insensitive to its only parameter, i.e., the candidate set, and that compression on the training set correlates with classification performance, validating our MDL-based selection criterion

Rigorously assessing software reliability and safety

This paper summarises the state of the art in the assessment of software reliability and safety ("dependability"), and describes some promising developments. A sound demonstration of very high dependability is still impossible before operation of the software; but research is finding ways to make rigorous assessment increasingly feasible. While refined mathematical techniques cannot take the place of factual knowledge, they can allow the decision-maker to draw more accurate conclusions from the knowledge that is available

Multicriteria decision-making method for sustainable site location of post-disaster temporary housing in urban areas

Many people lose their homes around the world every year because of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes. In the aftermath of a natural disaster, the displaced people (DP) have to move to temporary housing (TH) and do not have the ability to choose the settlement dimensions, distributions, neighborhood, or other characteristics of their TH. Additionally, post-disaster settlement construction causes neighborhood changes, environmental degradation, and large-scale public expenditures. This paper presents a new model to support decision makers in choosing site locations for TH. The model is capable of determining the optimal site location based on the integration of economic, social, and environmental aspects into the whole life cycle of these houses. The integrated value model for sustainable assessment (MIVES), a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) model, is used to assess the sustainability of the aforementioned aspects, and MIVES includes the value function concept, which permits indicator homogenization by taking into account the satisfaction of the involved stakeholders.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft