9,253 research outputs found

    Advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling: findings from the 11th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling

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    Large-scale hydrological modelling has become increasingly wide-spread during the last decade. An annual workshop series on large-scale hydrological modelling has provided, since 1997, a forum to the German-speaking community for discussing recent developments and achievements in this research area. In this paper we present the findings from the 2007 workshop which focused on advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling. We identify the state of the art, difficulties and research perspectives with respect to the themes "sensitivity of model results", "integrated modelling" and "coupling of processes in hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere". Some achievements in large-scale hydrological modelling during the last ten years are presented together with a selection of remaining challenges for the future

    The MAELIA multi-agent platform for integrated assessment of low-water management issues

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    International audienceThe MAELIA project is developing an agent-based modeling and simulation platform to study the environmental, economic and social impacts of various regulations regarding water use and water management in combination with climate change. It is applied to the case of the French Adour-Garonne Basin, which is the most concerned in France by water scarcity during the low-water period. An integrated approach has been chosen to model this social-ecological system: the model combines spatiotemporal models of ecologic (e.g. rainfall and temperature changes, water flow and plant growth) and socio-economic (e.g. farmer decision-making process, management of low-water flow, demography, land use and land cover changes) processes and sub-models of cognitive sharing among agents (e.g. weather forecast, normative constraints on behaviors

    Economics of irrigation water management : a literature survey with focus on partial and general equilibrium models

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    Water policy is an important topic on the agenda of the international community, and efficiency and equity in the allocation of water have emerged as important factors to be considered. Water pricing can be used to mitigate both the quantity and quality dimensions of water scarcity. This paper reviews partial equilibrium models and general equilibrium models that are relevant to irrigation water management issues. The most widely discussed issues in these models are water markets and water pricing. The interrelationships between economic, cultural, social, and political aspects that are related to water policy make it difficult to provide a comprehensive policy analysis. General equilibrium models of irrigation water management allow incorporation of both the irrigation sector and the other sectors in the economy and analysis of policies affecting each of them and the interaction between them. In addition to being able to address sector and household specifications, production factors, time horizon, pricing policies, and institutions such as water markets, general equilibrium models allow the analysis of the impact of water policies on equity and poverty alleviation. The authors conclude that, although there has been a significant increase in efforts to analyzewater related problems, analytical and empirical research in the field is still deficient and more effort is needed to address them.Environmental Economics&Policies,Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water Supply and Systems,Water Conservation

    Multi-agent simulation of hydraulic transient equations in pressurized systems

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    Computational modeling pervades virtually every industrial process. By using numerical representations of the behavior of elements that constitute a system it is possible to obtain efficient and safe designs. Moreover, system operation can be better defined by using such models, thus enabling greater reliability and control. In this paper the use of agents to solve the equations describing fast transients in water networks is investigated. As the simulation of hydraulic transients in pressurized systems is a naturally distributed problem, the authors argue that a multi-agent based system is very suitable for the solution of this complex engineering phenomenon. A hybrid solution is built by deploying agents to work with sets of equations describing hydraulic transient behavior in pipeline systems. The details necessary to assemble a complete and lubricated machine to model the complex phenomenon of hydraulic transients in pressurized systems are described. This research develops a platform that constitutes an efficient and versatile tool of great interest for water supply managers when analyzing water hammer effects in their networks.Izquierdo Sebastián, J.; Montalvo Arango, I.; Pérez García, R.; Ayala Cabrera, D. (2015). Multi-agent simulation of hydraulic transient equations in pressurized systems. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering. 04015071:1-14. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000549S1140401507

    Formal Representation of Water Withdrawal Policies for Integrated Impact Assessment

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    International audienceThe regulation of water use and water management has evolved considerably in recent years. The evolution of water regulatory systems includes the design of new management policies, which could benefit from ex-ante comparative impact assessments with regard to those of current or past practices. To this aim, the MAELIA project develops an integrated modelling and simulation platform for the assessment of alternative water management policies, especially during low-water crisis in the Adour-Garonne basin (South-West region of France). The development of such an integrated assessment and modelling platform requires the consideration and integration of many entities and processes involved in the system under consideration - water resources and flows, agricultural structures and activities, state and evolution of land cover and land use, etc. This article focuses on the formal representation of two alternative options regarding the choice of water withdrawal policy, which are likely to have considerable impacts on the whole socio-hydro-system s: management by rate of flow (currently applied); and management by volume quotas (alternative to be assessed). Furthermore, the article presents a conceptual framework for the integrated modelling of such social-ecological systems together with graphical notations for models' representation

    Multi-agent system for flood forecasting in Tropical River Basin

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    It is well known, the problems related to the generation of floods, their control, and management, have been treated with traditional hydrologic modeling tools focused on the study and the analysis of the precipitation-runoff relationship, a physical process which is driven by the hydrological cycle and the climate regime and that is directly proportional to the generation of floodwaters. Within the hydrological discipline, they classify these traditional modeling tools according to three principal groups, being the first group defined as trial-and-error models (e.g., "black-models"), the second group are the conceptual models, which are categorized in three main sub-groups as "lumped", "semi-lumped" and "semi-distributed", according to the special distribution, and finally, models that are based on physical processes, known as "white-box models" are the so-called "distributed-models". On the other hand, in engineering applications, there are two types of models used in streamflow forecasting, and which are classified concerning the type of measurements and variables required as "physically based models", as well as "data-driven models". The Physically oriented prototypes present an in-depth account of the dynamics related to the physical aspects that occur internally among the different systems of a given hydrographic basin. However, aside from being laborious to implement, they rely thoroughly on mathematical algorithms, and an understanding of these interactions requires the abstraction of mathematical concepts and the conceptualization of the physical processes that are intertwined among these systems. Besides, models determined by data necessitates an a-priori understanding of the physical laws controlling the process within the system, and they are bound to mathematical formulations, which require a lot of numeric information for field adjustments. Therefore, these models are remarkably different from each other because of their needs for data, and their interpretation of physical phenomena. Although there is considerable progress in hydrologic modeling for flood forecasting, several significant setbacks remain unresolved, given the stochastic nature of the hydrological phenomena, is the challenge to implement user-friendly, re-usable, robust, and reliable forecasting systems, the amount of uncertainty they must deal with when trying to solve the flood forecasting problem. However, in the past decades, with the growing environment and development of the artificial intelligence (AI) field, some researchers have seldomly attempted to deal with the stochastic nature of hydrologic events with the application of some of these techniques. Given the setbacks to hydrologic flood forecasting previously described this thesis research aims to integrate the physics-based hydrologic, hydraulic, and data-driven models under the paradigm of Multi-agent Systems for flood forecasting by designing and developing a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for flood forecasting events within the scope of tropical watersheds. With the emergence of the agent technologies, the "agent-based modeling" and "multiagent systems" simulation methods have provided applications for some areas of hydro base management like flood protection, planning, control, management, mitigation, and forecasting to combat the shocks produced by floods on society; however, all these focused on evacuation drills, and the latter not aimed at the tropical river basin, whose hydrological regime is extremely unique. In this catchment modeling environment approach, it was applied the multi-agent systems approach as a surrogate of the conventional hydrologic model to build a system that operates at the catchment level displayed with hydrometric stations, that use the data from hydrometric sensors networks (e.g., rainfall, river stage, river flow) captured, stored and administered by an organization of interacting agents whose main aim is to perform flow forecasting and awareness, and in so doing enhance the policy-making process at the watershed level. Section one of this document surveys the status of the current research in hydrologic modeling for the flood forecasting task. It is a journey through the background of related concerns to the hydrological process, flood ontologies, management, and forecasting. The section covers, to a certain extent, the techniques, methods, and theoretical aspects and methods of hydrological modeling and their types, from the conventional models to the present-day artificial intelligence prototypes, making special emphasis on the multi-agent systems, as most recent modeling methodology in the hydrological sciences. However, it is also underlined here that the section does not contribute to an all-inclusive revision, rather its purpose is to serve as a framework for this sort of work and a path to underline the significant aspects of the works. In section two of the document, it is detailed the conceptual framework for the suggested Multiagent system in support of flood forecasting. To accomplish this task, several works need to be carried out such as the sketching and implementation of the system’s framework with the (Belief-Desire-Intention model) architecture for flood forecasting events within the concept of the tropical river basin. Contributions of this proposed architecture are the replacement of the conventional hydrologic modeling with the use of multi-agent systems, which makes it quick for hydrometric time-series data administration and modeling of the precipitation-runoff process which conveys to flood in a river course. Another advantage is the user-friendly environment provided by the proposed multi-agent system platform graphical interface, the real-time generation of graphs, charts, and monitors with the information on the immediate event taking place in the catchment, which makes it easy for the viewer with some or no background in data analysis and their interpretation to get a visual idea of the information at hand regarding the flood awareness. The required agents developed in this multi-agent system modeling framework for flood forecasting have been trained, tested, and validated under a series of experimental tasks, using the hydrometric series information of rainfall, river stage, and streamflow data collected by the hydrometric sensor agents from the hydrometric sensors.Como se sabe, los problemas relacionados con la generación de inundaciones, su control y manejo, han sido tratados con herramientas tradicionales de modelado hidrológico enfocados al estudio y análisis de la relación precipitación-escorrentía, proceso físico que es impulsado por el ciclo hidrológico y el régimen climático y este esta directamente proporcional a la generación de crecidas. Dentro de la disciplina hidrológica, clasifican estas herramientas de modelado tradicionales en tres grupos principales, siendo el primer grupo el de modelos empíricos (modelos de caja negra), modelos conceptuales (o agrupados, semi-agrupados o semi-distribuidos) dependiendo de la distribución espacial y, por último, los basados en la física, modelos de proceso (o "modelos de caja blanca", y/o distribuidos). En este sentido, clasifican las aplicaciones de predicción de caudal fluvial en la ingeniería de recursos hídricos en dos tipos con respecto a los valores y parámetros que requieren en: modelos de procesos basados en la física y la categoría de modelos impulsados por datos. Los modelos basados en la física proporcionan una descripción detallada de la dinámica relacionada con los aspectos físicos que ocurren internamente entre los diferentes sistemas de una cuenca hidrográfica determinada. Sin embargo, aparte de ser complejos de implementar, se basan completamente en algoritmos matemáticos, y la comprensión de estas interacciones requiere la abstracción de conceptos matemáticos y la conceptualización de los procesos físicos que se entrelazan entre estos sistemas. Además, los modelos impulsados por datos no requieren conocimiento de los procesos físicos que gobiernan, sino que se basan únicamente en ecuaciones empíricas que necesitan una gran cantidad de datos y requieren calibración de los datos en el sitio. Los dos modelos difieren significativamente debido a sus requisitos de datos y de cómo expresan los fenómenos físicos. La elaboración de modelos hidrológicos para el pronóstico de inundaciones ha dado grandes pasos, pero siguen sin resolverse algunos contratiempos importantes, dada la naturaleza estocástica de los fenómenos hidrológicos, es el desafío de implementar sistemas de pronóstico fáciles de usar, reutilizables, robustos y confiables, la cantidad de incertidumbre que deben afrontar al intentar resolver el problema de la predicción de inundaciones. Sin embargo, en las últimas décadas, con el entorno creciente y el desarrollo del campo de la inteligencia artificial (IA), algunos investigadores rara vez han intentado abordar la naturaleza estocástica de los eventos hidrológicos con la aplicación de algunas de estas técnicas. Dados los contratiempos en el pronóstico de inundaciones hidrológicas descritos anteriormente, esta investigación de tesis tiene como objetivo integrar los modelos hidrológicos, basados en la física, hidráulicos e impulsados por datos bajo el paradigma de Sistemas de múltiples agentes para el pronóstico de inundaciones por medio del bosquejo y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente (MAS) para los eventos de predicción de inundaciones en el contexto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Con la aparición de las tecnologías de agentes, se han emprendido algunos enfoques de simulación recientes en la investigación hidrológica con modelos basados en agentes y sistema multi-agente, principalmente en alerta por inundaciones, seguridad y planificación de inundaciones, control y gestión de inundaciones y pronóstico de inundaciones, todos estos enfocado a simulacros de evacuación, y este último no dirigido a la cuenca tropical, cuyo régimen hidrológico es extremadamente único. En este enfoque de entorno de modelado de cuencas, se aplican los enfoques de sistemas multi-agente como un sustituto del modelado hidrológico convencional para construir un sistema que opera a nivel de cuenca con estaciones hidrométricas desplegadas, que utilizan los datos de redes de sensores hidrométricos (por ejemplo, lluvia , nivel del río, caudal del río) capturado, almacenado y administrado por una organización de agentes interactuantes cuyo objetivo principal es realizar pronósticos de caudal y concientización para mejorar las capacidades de soporte en la formulación de políticas a nivel de cuenca hidrográfica. La primera sección de este documento analiza el estado del arte sobre la investigación actual en modelos hidrológicos para la tarea de pronóstico de inundaciones. Es un viaje a través de los antecedentes preocupantes relacionadas con el proceso hidrológico, las ontologías de inundaciones, la gestión y la predicción. El apartado abarca, en cierta medida, las técnicas, métodos y aspectos teóricos y métodos del modelado hidrológico y sus tipologías, desde los modelos convencionales hasta los prototipos de inteligencia artificial actuales, haciendo hincapié en los sistemas multi-agente, como un enfoque de simulación reciente en la investigación hidrológica. Sin embargo, se destaca que esta sección no contribuye a una revisión integral, sino que su propósito es servir de marco para este tipo de trabajos y una guía para subrayar los aspectos significativos de los trabajos. En la sección dos del documento, se detalla el marco de trabajo propuesto para el sistema multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones. Los trabajos realizados comprendieron el diseño y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente con la arquitectura (modelo Creencia-Deseo-Intención) para la predicción de eventos de crecidas dentro del concepto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Las contribuciones de esta arquitectura propuesta son el reemplazo del modelado hidrológico convencional con el uso de sistemas multi-agente, lo que agiliza la administración de las series de tiempo de datos hidrométricos y el modelado del proceso de precipitación-escorrentía que conduce a la inundación en el curso de un río. Otra ventaja es el entorno amigable proporcionado por la interfaz gráfica de la plataforma del sistema multi-agente propuesto, la generación en tiempo real de gráficos, cuadros y monitores con la información sobre el evento inmediato que tiene lugar en la cuenca, lo que lo hace fácil para el espectador con algo o sin experiencia en análisis de datos y su interpretación para tener una idea visual de la información disponible con respecto a la cognición de las inundaciones. Los agentes necesarios desarrollados en este marco de modelado de sistemas multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones han sido entrenados, probados y validados en una serie de tareas experimentales, utilizando la información de la serie hidrométrica de datos de lluvia, nivel del río y flujo del curso de agua recolectados por los agentes sensores hidrométricos de los sensores hidrométricos de campo.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: María Araceli Sanchis de Miguel.- Secretario: Juan Gómez Romero.- Vocal: Juan Carlos Corrale

    mWater Prototype 3

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    This report concerns the application of a regulated open Multi-Agent System (MAS), mWater, that uses intelligent agents to simulate a flexible water-right market. Our simulator focuses on demands and, in particular, on the type of regulatory (in terms of norms selection and agents behaviour), and market mechanisms that foster an efficient use of water while also trying to prevent conflicts among parties. In this scenario, a MAS plays a vital role as it allows us to define different norms, agents behaviour and roles, and assess their impact in the market, thus enhancing the quality and applicability of its results as a decision support tool.Botti Navarro, VJ.; Garrido Tejero, A.; Giret Boggino, AS.; Noriega, P.; Gimeno, J. (2013). mWater Prototype 3. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/3212

    Quantitative Assessment of Contested Water Uses and Management in the Conflict-Torn Yarmouk River Basin

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    The Yarmouk River basin is shared between Syria, Jordan, and Israel. Since the 1960s, Yarmouk River flows have declined more than 85% despite the signature of bilateral agreements. Syria and Jordan blame each other for the decline and have both developed their own explanatory narratives: Jordan considers that Syria violated their 1987 agreement by building more dams than what was agreed on, while Syria blames climate change. In fact, because the two countries do not share information, neither on hydrological flows nor on water management, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic factors affecting the flow regime. Remote sensing and multiagent simulation (MAS) are combined to carry out an independent, quantitative analysis of Jordanian and Syrian competing narratives and show that a third cause for which there is no provision in the bilateral agreements actually explains much of the changes in the flow regime: groundwater overabstraction by Syrian highland farmers

    Evaluating how agent methodologies support the specification of the normative environment through the development process

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    [EN] Due to the increase in collaborative work and the decentralization of processes in many domains, there is an expanding demand for large-scale, flexible and adaptive software systems to support the interactions of people and institutions distributed in heterogeneous environments. Commonly, these software applications should follow specific regulations meaning the actors using them are bound by rights, duties and restrictions. Since this normative environment determines the final design of the software system, it should be considered as an important issue during the design of the system. Some agent-oriented software engineering methodologies deal with the development of normative systems (systems that have a normative environment) by integrating the analysis of the normative environment of a system in the development process. This paper analyses to what extent these methodologies support the analysis and formalisation of the normative environment and highlights some open issues of the topic.This work is partially supported by the PROMETEOII/2013/019, TIN2012-36586-C03-01, FP7-29493, TIN2011-27652-C03-00, CSD2007-00022 projects, and the CASES project within the 7th European Community Framework Program under the grant agreement No 294931.Garcia Marques, ME.; Miles, S.; Luck, M.; Giret Boggino, AS. (2014). Evaluating how agent methodologies support the specification of the normative environment through the development process. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10458-014-9275-zS120Cossentino, M., Hilaire, V., Molesini, A., & Seidita, V. (Eds.). (2014). Handbook on agent-oriented design processes (Vol. VIII, 569 p. 508 illus.). Berlin: Springer.Akbari, O. (2010). A survey of agent-oriented software engineering paradigm: Towards its industrial acceptance. 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    mWater prototype #3 review

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    mWater is a software demonstrator developed in the Agreement Technologies Project. It is a Multi-Agent System (MAS) application that implements a market for water rights, including the model and simulation of the water-right market itself, the basin, users, protocols, norms and grievance situations. mWater is motivated due to the fact that water scarcity is becoming a major concern in most countries, not only because it threatens the economic viability of current agricultural practices, but because it is likely to alter an already precarious balance among its different types of use.Garrido Tejero, A.; Botti Navarro, VJ.; Giret Boggino, AS.; Alfonso Espinosa, B.; Noriega, P. (2013). mWater prototype #3 review. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/3181
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