Enhanced news sentiment analysis using deep learning methods

We explore the predictive power of historical news sentiments based on financial market performance to forecast financial news sentiments. We define news sentiments based on stock price returns averaged over one minute right after a news article has been released. If the stock price exhibits positive (negative) return, we classify the news article released just prior to the observed stock return as positive (negative). We use Wikipedia and Gigaword five corpus articles from 2014 and we apply the global vectors for word representation method to this corpus to create word vectors to use as inputs into the deep learning TensorFlow network. We analyze high-frequency (intraday) Thompson Reuters News Archive as well as the high-frequency price tick history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 30) Index individual stocks for the period between 1/1/2003 and 12/30/2013. We apply a combination of deep learning methodologies of recurrent neural network with long short-term memory units to train the Thompson Reuters News Archive Data from 2003 to 2012, and we test the forecasting power of our method on 2013 News Archive data. We find that the forecasting accuracy of our methodology improves when we switch from random selection of positive and negative news to selecting the news with highest positive scores as positive news and news with highest negative scores as negative news to create our training data set.Published versio

CAST – City analysis simulation tool: an integrated model of land use, population, transport and economics

The paper reports on research into city modelling based on principles of Science of Complexity. It focuses on integration of major processes in cities, such as economics, land use, transport and population movement. This is achieved using an extended Cellular Automata model, which allows cells to form networks, and operate on individual financial budgets. There are 22 cell types with individual processes in them. The formation of networks is based on supply and demand mechanisms for products, skills, accommodation, and services. Demand for transport is obtained as an emergent property of the system resulting from the network connectivity and relevant economic mechanisms. Population movement is a consequence of mechanisms in the housing and skill markets. Income and expenditure of cells are self-regulated through market mechanisms and changing patterns of land use are a consequence of collective interaction of all mechanisms in the model, which are integrated through emergence

Living Innovation Laboratory Model Design and Implementation

Living Innovation Laboratory (LIL) is an open and recyclable way for multidisciplinary researchers to remote control resources and co-develop user centered projects. In the past few years, there were several papers about LIL published and trying to discuss and define the model and architecture of LIL. People all acknowledge about the three characteristics of LIL: user centered, co-creation, and context aware, which make it distinguished from test platform and other innovation approaches. Its existing model consists of five phases: initialization, preparation, formation, development, and evaluation. Goal Net is a goal-oriented methodology to formularize a progress. In this thesis, Goal Net is adopted to subtract a detailed and systemic methodology for LIL. LIL Goal Net Model breaks the five phases of LIL into more detailed steps. Big data, crowd sourcing, crowd funding and crowd testing take place in suitable steps to realize UUI, MCC and PCA throughout the innovation process in LIL 2.0. It would become a guideline for any company or organization to develop a project in the form of an LIL 2.0 project. To prove the feasibility of LIL Goal Net Model, it was applied to two real cases. One project is a Kinect game and the other one is an Internet product. They were both transformed to LIL 2.0 successfully, based on LIL goal net based methodology. The two projects were evaluated by phenomenography, which was a qualitative research method to study human experiences and their relations in hope of finding the better way to improve human experiences. Through phenomenographic study, the positive evaluation results showed that the new generation of LIL had more advantages in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.Comment: This is a book draf

A review of Multi-Agent Simulation Models in Agriculture

Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) models are intended to capture emergent properties of complex systems that are not amenable to equilibrium analysis. They are beginning to see some use for analysing agricultural systems. The paper reports on work in progress to create a MAS for specific sectors in New Zealand agriculture. One part of the paper focuses on options for modelling land and other resources such as water, labour and capital in this model, as well as markets for exchanging resources and commodities. A second part considers options for modelling agent heterogeneity, especially risk preferences of farmers, and the impacts on decision-making. The final section outlines the MAS that the authors will be constructing over the next few years and the types of research questions that the model will help investigate.multi-agent simulation models, modelling, agent-based model, cellular automata, decision-making, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

Towards the Development of a Simulator for Investigating the Impact of People Management Practices on Retail Performance

Often models for understanding the impact of management practices on retail performance are developed under the assumption of stability, equilibrium and linearity, whereas retail operations are considered in reality to be dynamic, non-linear and complex. Alternatively, discrete event and agent-based modelling are approaches that allow the development of simulation models of heterogeneous non-equilibrium systems for testing out different scenarios. When developing simulation models one has to abstract and simplify from the real world, which means that one has to try and capture the 'essence' of the system required for developing a representation of the mechanisms that drive the progression in the real system. Simulation models can be developed at different levels of abstraction. To know the appropriate level of abstraction for a specific application is often more of an art than a science. We have developed a retail branch simulation model to investigate which level of model accuracy is required for such a model to obtain meaningful results for practitioners.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables, Journal of Simulation 201

The implications of alternative developer decision-making strategies on land-use and land-cover in an agent-based land market model

Land developers play a key role in land-use and land cover change, as\ud they directly make land development decisions and bridge the land and housing\ud markets. Developers choose and purchase land from rural land owners, develop\ud and subdivide land into parcel lots, build structures on lots, and sell houses to residential households. Developers determine the initial landscaping states of developed parcels, affecting the state and future trajectories of residential land cover, as well as land market activity. Despite their importance, developers are underrepresented in land use change models due to paucity of data and knowledge regarding their decision-making. Drawing on economic theories and empirical literature, we have developed a generalized model of land development decision-making within a broader agent-based model of land-use change via land markets. Developer’s strategies combine their specialty in developing of particular subdivision types, their perception of and attitude towards market uncertainty, and their learning and adaptation strategies based on the dynamics of the simulated land and housing markets. We present a new agent-based land market model that includes these elements. The model will be used to experiment with these different development decision-making methods and compare their impacts on model outputs, particularly on the quantity and spatial pattern of resultant land use changes. Coupling between the land market and a carbon sequestration model, developed for the larger SLUCE2 project, will allow us, in future work, to examine how different developer’s strategies will affect the carbon balance in residential\ud landscape

Industrial Symbiotic Networks as Coordinated Games

We present an approach for implementing a specific form of collaborative industrial practices-called Industrial Symbiotic Networks (ISNs)-as MC-Net cooperative games and address the so called ISN implementation problem. This is, the characteristics of ISNs may lead to inapplicability of fair and stable benefit allocation methods even if the collaboration is a collectively desired one. Inspired by realistic ISN scenarios and the literature on normative multi-agent systems, we consider regulations and normative socioeconomic policies as two elements that in combination with ISN games resolve the situation and result in the concept of coordinated ISNs.Comment: 3 pages, Proc. of the 17th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2018

Asymptotically idempotent aggregation operators for trust management in multi-agent systems

The study of trust management in multi-agent system, especially distributed, has grown over the last years. Trust is a complex subject that has no general consensus in literature, but has emerged the importance of reasoning about it computationally. Reputation systems takes into consideration the history of an entity’s actions/behavior in order to compute trust, collecting and aggregating ratings from members in a community. In this scenario the aggregation problem becomes fundamental, in particular depending on the environment. In this paper we describe a technique based on a class of asymptotically idempotent aggregation operators, suitable particulary for distributed anonymous environments