727 research outputs found

    Three Essays on Macroeconomic Shocks

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    This dissertation looks at the role that various macroeconomic shocks have on the economy through the lens of both macro- and micro-economic perspectives. In the macro realm, I examine the importance of how researchers measure shocks; functional shocks reveal information latent in scalar shocks. From the micro point of view, I examine the impact of a change in national tax policy. In Chapter 2, I analyze the effect of monetary policy shocks on household consumption. Measuring shocks as shifts in the entire term structure of interest rates reveals a heterogeneous response of households to conventional and unconventional policies. I find that consumption by outright owners is more sensitive to unconventional shocks than that of mortgagors and renters. Additionally, I show that younger households’ consumption is more responsive to shocks that affect medium and longterm interest rates than that of middle-aged and older households. Two transmission mechanisms appear to play a key role in explaining heterogeneity in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy: differences in wealth and the planning horizon of households. In Chapter 3, I estimate to what extent state and local taxes (SALT) are capitalized into home value using Zillow’s ZTRAX dataset. To identify capitalization rates, I use the implementation of SALT caps through the passage of the TCJA to see how a national change in the price of local residence impacted housing markets. Using IRS Statistics of Information data on the ZIP code level tax filings, I estimate that approximately 76 percent is capitalized into sales price. To control for local amenities and housing characteristics, I leverage a repeat sales model identified through event study and difference-in-difference estimates. Overall, I find evidence that sales prices decline in areas with the greatest exposure to the SALT deduction and strong evidence of partial capitalization. In Chapter 4, I revisit the effect of tax policy expectations shocks on the economy. Measuring shocks as shifts in the entire term structure of implicit tax rates reveals that anticipated tax changes strongly depend on the relationship of short- and long-run expectations. Anticipated tax cuts lead to an increase in output if long-run implicit tax rates are higher than short-run rates. Conversely, tax increases can cause positive responses in output when future tax rates are anticipated to be lower. I show that changes in output are primarily driven by re-timing consumption and investment to periods of lower taxes

    Geopolitical Risk and the U.S. Stock Returns

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    The conspicuousness of the geopolitical risk has grown considerably in recent years among experts from various fields. Especially late in the 21st century, the topic has been approached in the academic literature, for example, through oil, tourism, national defense, and financial markets. However, studies that specifically has been dealt with the connection of different sectors of the United States stock market to the geopolitical risk are rare when writing this thesis. This study examines the impact of the Ukraine War 2022, the Iraq War 2003, and September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks between stock returns from Information Technology, Consumer Staples, and Energy sectors of the U.S. S&P 500 index, as well as the effect of the geopolitical risk on the stock returns of various industries in the United States. The theoretical framework of the research has been built from the development of geopolitics, geopolitical risk, and its relationship to various industries in the United States and other risk indicators such as the VIX and the EPU indices, as well as the efficient market hypothesis with focusing on event study. The data for the study consists of returns from the U.S. S&P 500 index, returns of various industries in the years 1985–2023, and geopolitical information from the same period. In the empirical part of the research, the event study methodology is implemented in the review period of the 21st century and the ordinary least squares estimation method in the timespan from 1985 to 2023. The research results of this thesis show that geopolitical risk affects stock market returns in the United States with both empirical methods. The results obtained through the OLS estimation method indicate that the U.S. value-weighted stock returns of different industries react more significantly than the equally weighted returns. The companies in the Consumer Staples and Information Technology sector lose relative to the market in the event of a geopolitical incident. In addition, the results show that the GPA index is statistically the most significant in terms of stock returns. The results obtained through the event study, in turn, indicate that companies in the Energy sector gain from the geopolitical risk in longer event windows at the start of the war in Ukraine. Moreover, the results show that stock returns in the Consumer Staples sector are increasing in connection with the Iraq War and the Information Technology sector in shorter event windows around September 11, 2001. In other event windows and events, all three sectors perform negatively during geopolitical tension as measured by the stock returns. As a side note, in the empirics of the study, it is found that investors can utilize a hedging strategy with the put options of the Information Technology sector firms during a geopolitical threat. The variation of the research results between different geopolitical incidents and event windows of the event study indicates the possibility of further future research on the subject area. Geopoliittisen riskin tunnettuus on kasvanut huomattavasti viime vuosien aikana eri alojen asiantuntijoiden keskuudessa. Varsinkin lähimenneisyydessä 2000-luvulla akateemisessa kirjallisuudessa aihealuetta on lähestytty esimerkiksi öljyn, matkailualan, maanpuolustuksen, sekä rahoitusmarkkinoiden kautta. Kuitenkin tutkimukset, joissa on käsitelty erityisesti Yhdysvaltojen osakemarkkinan eri sektoreiden yhteyttä geopoliittiseen riskiin ovat harvinaisia tämän opinnäytteen tekohetkellä. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan Ukrainan sodan 2022, Irakin sodan 2003, sekä vuoden 2001 syyskuun 11. päivän terroristi-iskujen vaikutusta Yhdysvaltojen S&P 500 indeksin informaatioteknologia-, päivittäistavara-, ja energiasektoreiden osaketuottoihin, sekä myös geopoliittisen riskin vaikutusta eri teollisuudenalojen osaketuottoihin Yhdysvalloissa. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys on rakennettu geopolitiikan kehityksestä, geopoliittisesta riskistä ja sen indekseistä, geopoliittisen riskin suhteesta Yhdysvaltojen eri teollisuudenaloihin ja muihin riski-indikaattoreihin kuten VIX- ja EPU-indekseihin, sekä tehokkaiden markkinoiden hypoteesista keskittyen tapahtumatutkimukseen. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu Yhdysvaltojen S&P 500 indeksin yritysten ja kokonaisindeksin, sekä eri teollisuudenalojen tuotoista vuosina 1985–2023 sekä myös geopoliittisesta informaatiosta samalta aikajaksolta. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osassa toteutetaan tapahtumatutkimuksen metodologiaa 2000-luvun tarkastelujaksolla sekä pienimmän neliösumman estimointimenetelmää aikavälillä 1985–2023. Tämän opinnäytetyön tutkimustulokset esittävät, että geopoliittinen riski vaikuttaa osakemarkkinoiden tuottoon Yhdysvalloissa kummallakin empiirisellä menetelmällä. Pienimmän neliösumman estimointimenetelmän kautta saadut tulokset osoittavat, että Yhdysvaltojen eri teollisuudenalojen arvopainotetut osaketuotot reagoivat merkittävämmin kuin tasapainotetut tuotot, ja että yritykset päivittäistavara- ja informaatioteknologiasektorissa häviävät suhteessa markkinoihin geopoliittisen tapauksen sattuessa. Lisäksi tulosten kautta havaitaan, että GPA-indeksi on tilastollisesti merkittävin osaketuottojen kannalta. Tapahtumatutkimuksen kautta saadut tulokset puolestaan osoittavat, että yritykset energiasektorissa reagoivat positiivisesti geopoliittiseen riskiin pidemmissä aikaikkunoissa Ukrainan sodan alkaessa, päivittäistavarasektorissa Irakin sodan yhteydessä, sekä informaatioteknologiasektorissa lyhemmissä aikaikkunoissa syyskuun 11. päivän ympärillä vuonna 2001. Muissa aikaikkunoissa ja tapahtumissa kaikki kolme sektoria suoriutuvat negatiivisesti geopoliittisen jännitteen aikana osaketuotoilla mitattuna. Sivuhuomiona tutkimuksen empiriassa löydetään, että sijoittajat voivat hyödyntää suojausstrategiaa informaatioteknologiasektorin yritysten myyntioptioilla geopoliittisen uhan aikana. Tutkimuksen tulosten vaihtelu eri geopoliittisten tapahtumien sekä tapahtumatutkimuksen eri aikaikkunoiden välillä kertoo aihepiirin lisätutkimuksen mahdollisuudesta tulevaisuudessa

    County Finance, House Prices, and Financial Decision-Making

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    This work is in three chapters. The first chapter investigates the extent to which county-level property tax changes are capitalized into house prices. The literature mainly focuses on specific tax events, but this chapter generalizes the context to large U.S. cities. The main findings suggest that county-level property tax capitalization occurs and varies along the distribution of house prices. The second chapter measures differences in county-aggregated self-assessed valuations of house prices and county- aggregated sale prices to determine whether there are trends in the level of misperceived house value. Factors like age, time of tenure in a house, and house price all matter when analyzing the difference between self-assessed values and sale prices. Further, the empirical work aims to measure differences in salience for tax policies at different governance levels. The third chapter analyzes whether increases in financial-decision making capabilities has an impact on health insurance purchase decisions and other health-related financial decisions. Financial literacy is shown to reduce undesirable outcomes in these dimensions. These chapters focus on decisions that many households face, and housing and health make up large portions of the typical household budget. Adviser: Sam Allgoo

    Monetary policy with firm heterogeneity

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    Defence date: 17 May 2023Examining Board: Prof. Russell Cooper, (Eropean University Institute, supervisor); Prof. Árpád Ábrahám, (University of Bristol, co-supervisor); Dr. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, (Bank of England); Prof. Immo Schott, (Université de Montréal)This thesis is composed of three essays, and studies how monetary policy transmission is shaped by firm heterogeneity with particular focus on investment, borrowing, and pricing decisions. In the first chapter, Debt Contracts, Investment and Monetary Policy, I study the role of debt contracts on the transmission of monetary policy to firm-level investment and borrowing. Empirically, using information from a detailed loan-level data matched with balance sheet data and stock return data, I document that in response to a contractionary monetary shock, asset-based borrowers –firms with more pledgeable assets, and higher beta– experience sharper contraction in borrowing and investment than cash flow-based borrowers –firms with higher profitability and alpha. To explore the possible channels and provide microfoundation for the coexistence of these debt contracts, I setup a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with limited enforceability. The quantitative model suggests that the traditional collateral channel explains this heterogeneous sensitivity as the cash flow based borrowers are less susceptible to collateral damage from changes in asset prices. Results indicate debt contract type affects the severity of financial frictions and also shapes the monetary policy transmission. The second chapter, TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality, coauthored with Russell Cooper, studies the determinants of TFPR, a revenue based measure of total factor productivity. Recent business cycle models are built upon the assumption of countercyclical dispersion in TFPQ, a quantity based measure of total factor productivity, based on evidence of countercyclical dispersion in TFPR. But, these can be very different measures of productivity. The distribution of TFPR is endogenous, dependent upon exogenous shocks and the endogenous determination of prices. An overlapping generations model with monopolistic competition and state dependent pricing is constructed to study the factors that shape the TFPR distribution. The empirical focus is on three key data patterns: (i) countercyclical dispersion of TFPR, (ii) countercyclical dispersion of price changes and (iii) countercyclical frequency of price adjustment. The analysis uncovers two interesting scenarios in which these moments are matched. One arises in the presence of shocks to the dispersion of TFPQ along with a negatively correlated change in the mean of TFPQ. The second arises if the monetary authority responds to shocks to the dispersion of TFPQ by “leaning against the wind". Due to state contingent pricing, the model is nonlinear. Simple correlations mask these nonlinearities of the underlying economy. The real effects of monetary innovations are state dependent, with monetary policy less effective in recessions. In the third chapter, Sectoral Volatility and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy, written jointly with Thomas Walsh, we investigate how the dispersion of firm-level shocks affect the investment channel of monetary policy. Using firm-level panel data, we construct several measures of dispersion of productivity shocks, time-pooled and timevarying, and interact high-frequency identified monetary policy shocks with these measures of idiosyncratic shock volatility. We document a novel fact: monetary policy has dampened real effects via the investment channel when firm-level TFP shock volatility is high. Our estimates for dampening effects of volatility are statistically and economically significant - moving from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of the volatility distribution approximately halves point estimates of impulse response functions to contractionary monetary policy shocks. Given that dispersion rises in recessions, these findings offer further evidence as to why monetary policy is weaker in recessions, and emphasize the importance of firm heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission.1. Debt Contracts, Investment, and Monetary Policy -- 2. TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality -- 3. Sectoral Volatility and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy -- A. Appendix to Chapter 1 -- B. Appendix to Chapter 2 -- C. Appendix to Chapter 3 -

    Three essays on credit supply

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    This thesis consists of three independent essays on credit supply, each addressing different components, including the different impact of credit supply shocks financed through different supply channels, how different credit constraints impact debt structure and productivity, and how it affects their individual and collective exposure over time. Chapter 1: Its conceptual appeal has made the Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) one of the most influential systemic risk indicators. Despite its popularity, an outstanding methodological challenge may hamper the CoVaRs’ accuracy in measuring the time-series dimension of systemic risk. The dynamics of the CoVaR are entirely due to the behaviour of the state variables and therefore without their inclusion, the CoVaR would be constant over time. The key contribution of this chapter is to relax the assumption of time-invariant tail dependence between the financial system and each institution’s losses, by allowing the estimated parameters of the model to change over time, in addition to changing over quantiles and different financial institutions. We find that the dynamic component that we introduce does not affect the estimations for the risk of individual financial institutions, but it largely affects estimations of systemic risk which exhibits more procyclicality than the one implied by the standard CoVaR. As expected, larger financial institutions have a higher effect on systemic risk, although they are also shown to be individually more robust. When adding balance sheet data, it introduces additional volatility into our model relative to the standard one. In terms of forecasting, the results depend on the horizon used or the variables included. There is no clear outperformance between either model when we add the balance sheet data, or in the short term (less than 12 weeks). However, our model outperforms the standard one for medium (between 15 and 25 weeks) to long term horizons (between 30 and 40 weeks). Chapter 2: We seek to evaluate the impact of the different segments within the lending sector to the private non-financial sector can have on subsequent GDP growth. We isolate the bank lending channel as one of the main components, and group the remaining ones into a second segment which we classify as market based finance (MBF). We also include the 2 different segments of the borrowing sector, household debt and non-financial firm debt, to compare with the results obtained by the standard model. We debate the main source of these effects, and focus on either credit demand or credit supply shocks, in addition to other alternatives. We find that a rise in bank credit and/or household debt to GDP ratio lowers subsequent GDP growth. The predictive power is large in magnitude and robust across time and space. The bank credit booms and household debt booms are connected to lower interest rate spread environments, as well as periods with better financial conditions. And although the overall impact on subsequent GDP growth is negative, we found contrasting evidence when using the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) as an instrument. This would point to the potential different effects that bank credit and household debt could have on future economic growth (good booms vs bad booms), depending on the underlying cause of the boom. The results and the evidence that we found are more consistent with models where the fundamental source of the changes in household debt or bank credit lie in changes in the credit supply (credit supply shocks), rather than credit demand or other possibilities. This would likely be connected to incorrect expectations formation by lenders and investors (what many authors classify as “credit market sentiment” in the literature), which is an important element in explaining shifts in credit supply. Although credit demand shocks could play an important role in prolonging or amplifying the effects of the booms, it is unlikely that they are the source, as it would lead to results that conflict with empirical evidence. Finally, we find some differences in terms of statistical significance and magnitude in the different scenarios, where the bank credit shows more robustness to different specifications than the household debt. This would imply that there is a significance of the bank credit that goes well beyond the household debt. It would also mean that the main component that generates the boom bust cycle in GDP would be the bank credit, independent of its destination, rather than household debt, independent of its financing. Chapter 3: We construct a dataset at the firm-year level by merging the syndicated loan data, provided by Refinitiv LPC DealScan ("DealScan"), with the firm level data, provided by Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP)/Compustat Merged Database ("CCM"). We conduct an analysis on firms subjected to different covenants, and find that firms with earnings-based constraints have lower levels of TFP (Total Factor Productivity), and short-term debt, when compared to firms with asset-based constraints. The data also shows that this is connected to an additional negative impact that short-term debt has on the productivity for the firms with earnings based constraints, which does not verify in the firms with asset-based constraints. Both these characteristics are robust to the use of 3 different TFP estimation methods, different subsamples, and additional controls, including age and size of the firm. Thus, we consider a quantitative dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium model, with three main types of firms, distinguished by their constraints, which explores the impact of short-term and long term borrowing on firm’s balance sheets, on the different variables. We construct replications for this theoretical model, and assess the how well it fits our actual data. Our findings show that constraints exert an impact on short-term borrowing, but not on the remaining variables. More specifically, firms that face an earnings-based constraint show lower levels of short-term borrowing, compared with firms that are either unconstrained, or asset-based constraint. The adjustment is made through lower dividend distribution, as can be seen by the lower values of the value function. They also point to the impact being larger for firms with lower productivity shocks, which is in accordance withour empirical findings. Even though that our data shows differences in some of this variables (for example, on long-term debt), these were not robust to some of the controls, including the size of the firm

    Dynamic effects of fiscal policy on inequality

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    My dissertation consists of two chapters and examines the linear and state-dependent (non-linear) effects of government spending shocks on various inequality measures.The first chapter examines the dynamic effects of government spending shocks on income and consumption inequality in the United States. Using the recent quarterly micro-level US data on consumption and income estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX), this study analyzes the distributional effects of unanticipated changes in government spending on various economic inequalities considering different inequality measures. I do so by estimating the impulse response functions using the local projections method and utilizing forecasts of the fiscal variable by the Survey of Professional Forecasters for shock identification. Results show that income inequality to the unanticipated spending shock either remains unchanged or declines after five quarters. However, differing from the traditional view of a positive income-consumption inequality correlation, we find that fiscal shock significantly reduces consumption inequality despite any significant decrease in income inequality. Furthermore, results also suggest that the decrease in consumption inequality works through the interest rate channel since a fiscal policy shock significantly lowers interest-sensitive expenditures relative to non-durables. These results also support theoretical predictions of the heterogeneous agent model regarding the fiscal policy impact on inequality.The second chapter investigates the state-dependent effects of unanticipated changes in government spending on consumption inequality using the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). To do this, this study employs Jorda’s (2005) local projections method and estimates the impulse response functions of consumption inequality to a government spending shock. Using the unemployment rate as a state variable, this study also evaluates the transmission of fiscal policy to consumption inequality depending on whether government spending is increasing or decreasing, given the state of the economy. In line with the predictions of the New-Keynesian theoretical model, we find that government spending shocks are state-dependent, and fiscal consolidations are more effective in reducing consumption inequality when there is a high unemployment rate in the economy.Overall, results suggest that government spending shocks effectively reduce consumption inequality, and contractionary spending shocks are more effective than expansionary ones during the slack state

    International Academic Symposium of Social Science 2022

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    This conference proceedings gathers work and research presented at the International Academic Symposium of Social Science 2022 (IASSC2022) held on July 3, 2022, in Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia. The conference was jointly organized by the Faculty of Information Management of Universiti Teknologi MARA Kelantan Branch, Malaysia; University of Malaya, Malaysia; Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta, Indonesia; Universitas Ngudi Waluyo, Indonesia; Camarines Sur Polytechnic Colleges, Philippines; and UCSI University, Malaysia. Featuring experienced keynote speakers from Malaysia, Australia, and England, this proceeding provides an opportunity for researchers, postgraduate students, and industry practitioners to gain knowledge and understanding of advanced topics concerning digital transformations in the perspective of the social sciences and information systems, focusing on issues, challenges, impacts, and theoretical foundations. This conference proceedings will assist in shaping the future of the academy and industry by compiling state-of-the-art works and future trends in the digital transformation of the social sciences and the field of information systems. It is also considered an interactive platform that enables academicians, practitioners and students from various institutions and industries to collaborate

    Essays on housing and buy to let markets

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    This thesis provides an in-depth discussion of housing markets and their effects on the volatility of aggregate economy. This thesis consists of three major theoretical models and one empirical model. Chapter one gives an introduction to the housing markets and what the literature suggests about their effects on the wealth of households, as well as the contribution and structure of the thesis are discussed. Chapter two examines the role of collateral constraints in a baseline model with no Buy to Let (BTL) sector in the economy. Using a core framework of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, I found that when houses act as collateral, change in house prices have a substantial effect on the consumption of agents who are collaterally constrained. In particular, Borrowers are better off when the house prices are subjected to an increase, compared to that of agents who are not collaterally constrained. Furthermore, when amount of lending is based on income, I found that labour dynamics play a huge role and Borrowers are subjected to a substitution effect with a positive technology shock in housing market and this leads to an increase in labour and net income of Borrowers and in turn an increase in the their housing is observed. In light of the Bank of England paper by Baptista et al. (2016) and then consultation by the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) on the risks of BTL markets on the economy, chapter three examines the role of BTL markets on the volatility of house prices using a DSGE framework with Dixit Stiglitz Lite Utility. As the policy is expected to operate at business cycle frequency, I built a DSGE model rather than an OLG model. The results from the model indicate that by altering the size of BTL markets using downpayment ratio as a macro prudential policy has a very little effect on the volatility of house prices as opposed to the agent based model Baptista et al(2016). Such results indicate that there is a chance for some serious supply constraints in the economy especially in the urban areas. However, changes in size of BTL markets do have a substantial effect on the volatility of an aggregate economy. This leads us to chapter four, which investigates the effects of a rich set of shocks including news shocks on my model economy with agents subjected to CES utility. I use this framework to analyze which policy out of the Macro prudential of Downpayment ratio and Monetary policy is better to curb the volatility of the aggregate economy. The results indicate that labour markets play a pivotal role in most of the dynamics and the volatility stemmed from the Monetary policy shock is substantially high on housing market compared to that of the consumption goods market. I also found that Monetary policy is the only effective policy which affects the Hand to Mouth agents optimal choices. However, Macro prudential policy is more effective in both the Borrowers and Savers volatilities of choice variables. With a News shock in Monetary policy, I tend to observe that the economy volatility is only affected by the Monetary policy with no affect from Macro Prudential policy. Finally in chapter five, I take my baseline models augmented with habit formation: one without housing and the other one with housing, to data. Using the 1980 to 2020 quarterly data of U.S and employing the Bayesian Estimation techniques, I have estimated some key parameters and compared the estimated parameters between the two baseline models. Results show that most of the estimates are in line with the literature. Inclusion of housing has substantially increased the effect of the monetary policy and it’s persistence in the economy. Due to the inclusion of collateral constraint, agents are subjected a better wealth effects and this leads to them reacting less to the change in wages. Habits have slightly increased with the inclusion of Borrowers in the economy as they are constrained and to account for the aggregate consumption levels, Borrowers tend to form higher internal habits in consumption

    Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation

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    In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings – even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households possess private advance information on their future earnings. We find that households are better informed about their future earnings than an econometrician and that individual expectations are more relevant for the consumption choices of households in the left tail of the wealth distribution. Furthermore, households with advance information prefer less progressive earnings taxes

    Value Loss of Activities Propelled by Digital Transformation: Theoretical Evaluation and Empirical Modelling to Identify Efficiency Potentials to Maximize Value in the Field of Marketing & Sales.

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    Digital transformation of firms and the adoption of digital technologies is progressing inexorably. Decision-makers are preoccupied with the endeavor to identify the potentials of existing as well as newly emerging technologies and underutilize the entailed profits. This research study proposes a newly developed conceptualization and model to compute efficiency potentials in the field of marketing and sales, a business function with an intense consumer focus. While this conjoint business unit mainly fosters and propels the performance measure of effectiveness, the full exploitation of internal workforce efficiency stays neglected and barely treated by practice and science. By employing expert interviews with managers in this field, a tailored efficiency determination model is created with in total eight efficiency potentials allocated to three digital technology effects, acceleration, automation, and outsourcing. The efficiency coefficient of time weights the human labor input while the additive connection with digital technologies as input factor engenders either a complementary, substitutional, or no effect. With a sequential mixed-methods research approach, a further quantitative study with 251 employees in the field of marketing and sales uses the qualitative model to determine the efficiency potential based on individual task assessments, including the identification of task values. While distinguishing between office and customer interaction-related work, the study finds that 45 percent of the working time underlies an efficiency potential by utilizing the ONET database, which contains 214 individual tasks in the career cluster marketing and professional sales.Administración y Dirección de Empresa
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