A comparative study for estimating the parameters of the second order moving average process

EnMoving Average process is a representation of a time series written as a finite linear combination of uncorrelated random variables. Our main interest is to compare a classical estimation method; namely Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation (EMLE) with the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) approach for estimating the parameters of the second order moving average processes. In this paper, in applying EMLE we have to find the exact likelihood function through deriving the probability density function of the series. Differentiating the function with respect to the parameters, we can obtain the exact maximum likelihood estimates. On the other hand, the idea of GME is to write the unknown parameters and error terms as the expected value of some proper probability distributions defined over some supports. We carry a simulation study to compare between the presented estimation techniques

Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: a Moving Average Cluster Entropy Approach

A perspective is taken on the intangible complexity of economic and social systems by investigating the underlying dynamical processes that produce, store and transmit information in financial time series in terms of the \textit{moving average cluster entropy}. An extensive analysis has evidenced market and horizon dependence of the \textit{moving average cluster entropy} in real world financial assets. The origin of the behavior is scrutinized by applying the \textit{moving average cluster entropy} approach to long-range correlated stochastic processes as the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Fractional Brownian motion (FBM). To that end, an extensive set of series is generated with a broad range of values of the Hurst exponent $H$ and of the autoregressive, differencing and moving average parameters $p,d,q$. A systematic relation between \textit{moving average cluster entropy}, \textit{Market Dynamic Index} and long-range correlation parameters $H$, $d$ is observed. This study shows that the characteristic behaviour exhibited by the horizon dependence of the cluster entropy is related to long-range positive correlation in financial markets. Specifically, long range positively correlated ARFIMA processes with differencing parameter $d\simeq 0.05$, $d\simeq 0.15$ and $d\simeq 0.25$ are consistent with \textit{moving average cluster entropy} results obtained in time series of DJIA, S\&P500 and NASDAQ

Maximum Entropy Production Principle for Stock Returns

In our previous studies we have investigated the structural complexity of time series describing stock returns on New York's and Warsaw's stock exchanges, by employing two estimators of Shannon's entropy rate based on Lempel-Ziv and Context Tree Weighting algorithms, which were originally used for data compression. Such structural complexity of the time series describing logarithmic stock returns can be used as a measure of the inherent (model-free) predictability of the underlying price formation processes, testing the Efficient-Market Hypothesis in practice. We have also correlated the estimated predictability with the profitability of standard trading algorithms, and found that these do not use the structure inherent in the stock returns to any significant degree. To find a way to use the structural complexity of the stock returns for the purpose of predictions we propose the Maximum Entropy Production Principle as applied to stock returns, and test it on the two mentioned markets, inquiring into whether it is possible to enhance prediction of stock returns based on the structural complexity of these and the mentioned principle.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Paths and stochastic order in open systems

The principle of maximum irreversible is proved to be a consequence of a stochastic order of the paths inside the phase space; indeed, the system evolves on the greatest path in the stochastic order. The result obtained is that, at the stability, the entropy generation is maximum and, this maximum value is consequence of the stochastic order of the paths in the phase space, while, conversely, the stochastic order of the paths in the phase space is a consequence of the maximum of the entropy generation at the stability

Thermodynamic time asymmetry in nonequilibrium fluctuations

We here present the complete analysis of experiments on driven Brownian motion and electric noise in a $RC$ circuit, showing that thermodynamic entropy production can be related to the breaking of time-reversal symmetry in the statistical description of these nonequilibrium systems. The symmetry breaking can be expressed in terms of dynamical entropies per unit time, one for the forward process and the other for the time-reversed process. These entropies per unit time characterize dynamical randomness, i.e., temporal disorder, in time series of the nonequilibrium fluctuations. Their difference gives the well-known thermodynamic entropy production, which thus finds its origin in the time asymmetry of dynamical randomness, alias temporal disorder, in systems driven out of equilibrium.Comment: to be published in : Journal of Statistical Mechanics: theory and experimen

The maximum entropy ansatz in the absence of a time arrow: fractional pole models

The maximum entropy ansatz, as it is often invoked in the context of time-series analysis, suggests the selection of a power spectrum which is consistent with autocorrelation data and corresponds to a random process least predictable from past observations. We introduce and compare a class of spectra with the property that the underlying random process is least predictable at any given point from the complete set of past and future observations. In this context, randomness is quantified by the size of the corresponding smoothing error and deterministic processes are characterized by integrability of the inverse of their power spectral densities--as opposed to the log-integrability in the classical setting. The power spectrum which is consistent with a partial autocorrelation sequence and corresponds to the most random process in this new sense, is no longer rational but generated by finitely many fractional-poles.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figure