11,397 research outputs found

    Predicting Item Popularity: Analysing Local Clustering Behaviour of Users

    Full text link
    Predicting the popularity of items in rating networks is an interesting but challenging problem. This is especially so when an item has first appeared and has received very few ratings. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to predicting the future popularity of new items in rating networks, defining a new bipartite clustering coefficient to predict the popularity of movies and stories in the MovieLens and Digg networks respectively. We show that the clustering behaviour of the first user who rates a new item gives insight into the future popularity of that item. Our method predicts, with a success rate of over 65% for the MovieLens network and over 50% for the Digg network, the future popularity of an item. This is a major improvement on current results.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figure

    The supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process

    Full text link
    We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure and from the label assigned to each group.Comment: 14 page
    • …
    corecore