1,248 research outputs found

    Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

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    Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

    The American Legal Realists and an Empirical Science of Law

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    Claim Construction, Appeal, and the Predictability of Interpretive Regimes

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    Automation in Graphic Design

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    Advances in technology have had dramatic impacts throughout history on a myriad of industries outside of the technology industry itself. These changes are showcased through a brief examination of the changes within the graphic design industry since the recorded birth of the graphic. With the advent of popularized artificial intelligence seen in the modern day, many are predicting the end of graphic design. Through an analysis of current automated design products within the consumer market and a dive into the research alongside design automation professional Peter O’Donovan, it is evident that the role of the graphic designer will most likely be forced to adapt to the changing landscape. However, while the role of the graphic design professional may pivot or disappear entirely, the need for a thoughtful design will likely persist for the foreseeable future

    Sustainability in the management of scientific information

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    The sustainability in the management of scientific information is becoming compromised in this new age of Big Data. Herein, I present and discuss some of the main challenges of this situation in both scientific practice and scientific communication. A major challenge is trying to fill the growing gap between the rate at which new data accumulated and the rate at which these yield new knowledge. Another major challenge is the current hypertrophy of science publications contributing to the Red Queen effect in the scientific activity and to the "publish or perish" policy. All the previously mentioned circumstances contribute to the imposition of urgency and immediacy in the practice of science, leaving too little time to reflect what, why, and how we are researching.This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (Grant PID2019-105010RB-I00), Andalusian Government and FEDER (UMA18-FEDERJA-220 and funds from group BIO 267), as well as funds from the University of Málaga ("Plan Propio de Investigación y Transferencia"). The "CIBER de Enfermedades Raras" is an initiative from the ISCIII (Spain). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript

    Computational Experimentation

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    Experimentation conjures images of laboratories and equipment in biotechnology, chemistry, materials science, and pharmaceuticals. Yet modern day experimentation is not limited to only chemical synthesis, but is increasingly computational. Researchers in the unpredictable arts can experiment upon the functions, properties, reactions, and structures of chemical compounds with highly accurate computational techniques. These computational capabilities challenge the enablement and utility patentability requirements. The patent statute requires that the inventor explain how to make and use the invention without undue experimentation and that the invention have at least substantial and specific utility. These patentability requirements do not align with computational research capabilities, which allow inventors to file earlier patent applications, develop prophetic examples, and provide supporting disclosure in the patent specification without necessarily conducting traditional, laboratory-based experiments. This Article explores the contours and applications of computational capabilities on patentability, proposes reforms to the utility doctrine and to patent examination, responds to potential critiques of the proposed reforms, and analyzes innovation policy in the unpredictable arts. In light of increasing computational experimentation, this Article recommends strengthening the utility requirement in order to prevent a state of patent law in which enablement is subsumed into utility

    Nature's Way of Making Audacious Space Projects Viable

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    Building a starship within the next 100 years is an audacious goal. To be successful, we need sustained funding that may be difficult to maintain in the face of economic challenges that are poised to arise during these next 100 years. Our species' civilization has only recently reached the classification as (approximately) Type-I on the Kardashev scale; that is, we have spread out from one small locality to become a global species mastering the energy and resources of an entire planet. In the process we discovered the profound truth that the two-dimensional surface of our world is not flat, but has positive curvature and is closed so that its area and resources are finite. It should come as no surprise to a Type I civilization when its planet's resources dWindle; how could they not? Yet we have gone year by year, government by government, making little investment for the time when civilization becomes violent in the unwelcome contractions that must follow, when we are forced too late into the inevitable choice: to remain and diminish on an unhappy world; or to expand into the only dimension remaining perpendicularly outward from the surface into space. Then some day we may become a Type-II civilization, mastering the resources of an entire solar system. Our species cannot continue as we have on this planet for another 100 years. Doubtless it falls on us today, the very time we intended to start building a starship, to make the late choice. We wished this century to be filled with enlightenment and adventure; it could be an age of desperation and war. What a time to begin an audacious project in space! How will we maintain consistent funding for the next 100 years? Fortunately, saving a civilization, mastering a solar system, and doing other great things like building starships amount to mostly the same set of tasks. Recognizing what we must be about during the next 100 years will make it possible to do them all

    Technological development and innovation : selected policy implications

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    Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; and, (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 59-62).Technological development is one of the main drivers in economic progress throughout the world and is strongly linked to the creation of new industries, jobs, and wealth. This thesis attempts to better understand how a specific technological field develops over time and to examine the policy implications resulting from that research. In order to research the specific field, we present a repeatable method to identify and describe the important innovations in an industry, using the solar photovoltaic industry as a case study. A set of 2484 patented inventions in the solar PV industry between 1961 and 2011 was selected and their metadata and textual information were analyzed using a mixture of qualitative, quantitative and objective tests. Within the patent set, a group of most highly cited patents was located and defined. We found that these highly cited patents improved on technologies across different technological hierarchy levels and that the hierarchy levels did not appear to follow any pattern over time. When compared with other patents in the set of 2484, the highly cited patents, contrary to some conjectures, did not apparently rely more on new scientific discoveries as they did not cite scientific literature more frequently than less cited patents. These findings support the theory that even the most important developments in a field are part of an integrated system and cannot be treated as standalone improvements. The work also indicates that ascribing the bulk of progress to "breakthroughs" is not seen in objective data. The thesis continues with an analysis of how these findings may apply to innovation polices in organizations. Finally, technological innovation strategies within MIT, Stanford and the United States Air Force are analyzed through the lens of the model constructed from the findings.by Christopher L Benson.S.M.in Technology and PolicyS.M
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