Beyond Moore's technologies: operation principles of a superconductor alternative

The predictions of Moore's law are considered by experts to be valid until 2020 giving rise to "post-Moore's" technologies afterwards. Energy efficiency is one of the major challenges in high-performance computing that should be answered. Superconductor digital technology is a promising post-Moore's alternative for the development of supercomputers. In this paper, we consider operation principles of an energy-efficient superconductor logic and memory circuits with a short retrospective review of their evolution. We analyze their shortcomings in respect to computer circuits design. Possible ways of further research are outlined.Comment: OPEN ACCES

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Moore's Law and Learning-By-Doing

We model Moore's Law as efficiency of computer producers that rises as a by-product of their experience. We find that (1) Because computer prices fall much faster than the prices of electricity-driven and diesel-driven capital ever did, growth in the coming decades should be very fast, and that (2) The obsolescence of firms today occurs faster than before, partly because the physical capital they own becomes obsolete faster.

The future of computing beyond Moore's Law.

Moore's Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore's Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. This article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science'

How predictable is technological progress?

Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting experiments we show that this works well, making it possible to collapse the forecast errors for many different technologies at different time horizons onto the same universal distribution. This is valuable because it allows us to make forecasts for any given technology with a clear understanding of the quality of the forecasts. As a practical demonstration we make distributional forecasts at different time horizons for solar photovoltaic modules, and show how our method can be used to estimate the probability that a given technology will outperform another technology at a given point in the future

Designing analog circuits in CMOS

The evolution in CMOS technology dictated by Moore's Law is clearly beneficial for designers of digital circuits, but it presents difficult challenges, such as lowered nominal supply voltages, for their peers in the analog world who want to keep pace with this rapid progression. This article discusses a number of significant items for analog designs in modern and future CMOS processes and possible ways to maintain performance

Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model

Semiconductors, High Technology Industries,

Moore's Law

Moore’s law originally was the observation that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles roughly every 18 months. However, many other areas of technology progress with a similar exponential growth. For instance, can one find an analogous law in the context of super-computing? The aim of this paper is to answer this question by showing how a variant of Moore’s law emerges from an analysis of the “Top 500” lists of super computers from 1993 to 2013