Hedging of Financial Derivative Contracts via Monte Carlo Tree Search

The construction of approximate replication strategies for derivative contracts in incomplete markets is a key problem of financial engineering. Recently Reinforcement Learning algorithms for pricing and hedging under realistic market conditions have attracted significant interest. While financial research mostly focused on variations of $Q$-learning, in Artificial Intelligence Monte Carlo Tree Search is the recognized state-of-the-art method for various planning problems, such as the games of Hex, Chess, Go,... This article introduces Monte Carlo Tree Search as a method to solve the stochastic optimal control problem underlying the pricing and hedging of financial derivatives. As compared to $Q$-learning it combines reinforcement learning with tree search techniques. As a consequence Monte Carlo Tree Search has higher sample efficiency, is less prone to over-fitting to specific market models and generally learns stronger policies faster. In our experiments we find that Monte Carlo Tree Search, being the world-champion in games like Chess and Go, is easily capable of directly maximizing the utility of investor's terminal wealth without an intermediate mathematical theory.Comment: Added figures. Added references. Corrected typos. 15 pages, 5 figure

Monte Carlo Tree Search with Heuristic Evaluations using Implicit Minimax Backups

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has improved the performance of game engines in domains such as Go, Hex, and general game playing. MCTS has been shown to outperform classic alpha-beta search in games where good heuristic evaluations are difficult to obtain. In recent years, combining ideas from traditional minimax search in MCTS has been shown to be advantageous in some domains, such as Lines of Action, Amazons, and Breakthrough. In this paper, we propose a new way to use heuristic evaluations to guide the MCTS search by storing the two sources of information, estimated win rates and heuristic evaluations, separately. Rather than using the heuristic evaluations to replace the playouts, our technique backs them up implicitly during the MCTS simulations. These minimax values are then used to guide future simulations. We show that using implicit minimax backups leads to stronger play performance in Kalah, Breakthrough, and Lines of Action.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 9 tables, expanded version of paper presented at IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG) 2014 conferenc

Thinking Fast and Slow with Deep Learning and Tree Search

Sequential decision making problems, such as structured prediction, robotic control, and game playing, require a combination of planning policies and generalisation of those plans. In this paper, we present Expert Iteration (ExIt), a novel reinforcement learning algorithm which decomposes the problem into separate planning and generalisation tasks. Planning new policies is performed by tree search, while a deep neural network generalises those plans. Subsequently, tree search is improved by using the neural network policy to guide search, increasing the strength of new plans. In contrast, standard deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms rely on a neural network not only to generalise plans, but to discover them too. We show that ExIt outperforms REINFORCE for training a neural network to play the board game Hex, and our final tree search agent, trained tabula rasa, defeats MoHex 1.0, the most recent Olympiad Champion player to be publicly released.Comment: v1 to v2: - Add a value function in MCTS - Some MCTS hyper-parameters changed - Repetition of experiments: improved accuracy and errors shown. (note the reduction in effect size for the tpt/cat experiment) - Results from a longer training run, including changes in expert strength in training - Comparison to MoHex. v3: clarify independence of ExIt and AG0. v4: see appendix

Expert iteration

In this thesis, we study how reinforcement learning algorithms can tackle classical board games without recourse to human knowledge. Specifically, we develop a framework and algorithms which learn to play the board game Hex starting from random play. We first describe Expert Iteration (ExIt), a novel reinforcement learning framework which extends Modified Policy Iteration. ExIt explicitly decomposes the reinforcement learning problem into two parts: planning and generalisation. A planning algorithm explores possible move sequences starting from a particular position to find good strategies from that position, while a parametric function approximator is trained to predict those plans, generalising to states not yet seen. Subsequently, planning is improved by using the approximated policy to guide search, increasing the strength of new plans. This decomposition allows ExIt to combine the benefits of both planning methods and function approximation methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the ExIt paradigm by implementing ExIt with two different planning algorithms. First, we develop a version based on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), a search algorithm which has been successful both in specific games, such as Go, Hex and Havannah, and in general game playing competitions. We then develop a new planning algorithm, Policy Gradient Search (PGS), which uses a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm for online planning. Unlike MCTS, PGS does not require an explicit search tree. Instead PGS uses function approximation within a single search, allowing it to be applied to problems with larger branching factors. Both MCTS-ExIt and PGS-ExIt defeated MoHex 2.0 - the most recent Hex Olympiad winner to be open sourced - in 9 × 9 Hex. More importantly, whereas MoHex makes use of many Hex-specific improvements and knowledge, all our programs were trained tabula rasa using general reinforcement learning methods. This bodes well for ExIt’s applicability to both other games and real world decision making problems

Scaling Monte Carlo Tree Search on Intel Xeon Phi

Many algorithms have been parallelized successfully on the Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor, especially those with regular, balanced, and predictable data access patterns and instruction flows. Irregular and unbalanced algorithms are harder to parallelize efficiently. They are, for instance, present in artificial intelligence search algorithms such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). In this paper we study the scaling behavior of MCTS, on a highly optimized real-world application, on real hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi allows shared memory scaling studies up to 61 cores and 244 hardware threads. We compare work-stealing (Cilk Plus and TBB) and work-sharing (FIFO scheduling) approaches. Interestingly, we find that a straightforward thread pool with a work-sharing FIFO queue shows the best performance. A crucial element for this high performance is the controlling of the grain size, an approach that we call Grain Size Controlled Parallel MCTS. Our subsequent comparing with the Xeon CPUs shows an even more comprehensible distinction in performance between different threading libraries. We achieve, to the best of our knowledge, the fastest implementation of a parallel MCTS on the 61 core Intel Xeon Phi using a real application (47 relative to a sequential run).Comment: 8 pages, 9 figure

Assessing the Potential of Classical Q-learning in General Game Playing

After the recent groundbreaking results of AlphaGo and AlphaZero, we have seen strong interests in deep reinforcement learning and artificial general intelligence (AGI) in game playing. However, deep learning is resource-intensive and the theory is not yet well developed. For small games, simple classical table-based Q-learning might still be the algorithm of choice. General Game Playing (GGP) provides a good testbed for reinforcement learning to research AGI. Q-learning is one of the canonical reinforcement learning methods, and has been used by (Banerjee $\&$ Stone, IJCAI 2007) in GGP. In this paper we implement Q-learning in GGP for three small-board games (Tic-Tac-Toe, Connect Four, Hex)\footnote{source code: https://github.com/wh1992v/ggp-rl}, to allow comparison to Banerjee et al.. We find that Q-learning converges to a high win rate in GGP. For the $\epsilon$-greedy strategy, we propose a first enhancement, the dynamic $\epsilon$ algorithm. In addition, inspired by (Gelly $\&$ Silver, ICML 2007) we combine online search (Monte Carlo Search) to enhance offline learning, and propose QM-learning for GGP. Both enhancements improve the performance of classical Q-learning. In this work, GGP allows us to show, if augmented by appropriate enhancements, that classical table-based Q-learning can perform well in small games.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1802.0594

Learning Policies from Self-Play with Policy Gradients and MCTS Value Estimates

In recent years, state-of-the-art game-playing agents often involve policies that are trained in self-playing processes where Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithms and trained policies iteratively improve each other. The strongest results have been obtained when policies are trained to mimic the search behaviour of MCTS by minimising a cross-entropy loss. Because MCTS, by design, includes an element of exploration, policies trained in this manner are also likely to exhibit a similar extent of exploration. In this paper, we are interested in learning policies for a project with future goals including the extraction of interpretable strategies, rather than state-of-the-art game-playing performance. For these goals, we argue that such an extent of exploration is undesirable, and we propose a novel objective function for training policies that are not exploratory. We derive a policy gradient expression for maximising this objective function, which can be estimated using MCTS value estimates, rather than MCTS visit counts. We empirically evaluate various properties of resulting policies, in a variety of board games.Comment: Accepted at the IEEE Conference on Games (CoG) 201

A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work