No Consistent Evidence for Advancing or Delaying Trends in Spring Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change and has significant effects on the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The Tibetan Plateau, the Earth\u27s “third pole,” is a unique region for studying the long‐term trends in vegetation phenology in response to climate change because of the sensitivity of its alpine ecosystems to climate and its low‐level human disturbance. There has been a debate whether the trends in spring phenology over the Tibetan Plateau have been continuously advancing over the last two to three decades. In this study, we examine the trends in the start of growing season (SOS) for alpine meadow and steppe using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS)3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set (1982–2014), the GIMMS NDVI data set (1982–2006), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data set (2001–2014), the Satellite Pour l\u27Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT‐VEG) NDVI data set (1999–2013), and the Sea‐viewing Wide Field‐of‐View Sensor (SeaWiFS) NDVI data set (1998–2007). Both logistic and polynomial fitting methods are used to retrieve the SOS dates from the NDVI data sets. Our results show that the trends in spring phenology over the Tibetan Plateau depend on both the NDVI data set used and the method for retrieving the SOS date. There are large discrepancies in the SOS trends among the different NDVI data sets and between the two different retrieval methods. There is no consistent evidence that spring phenology (“green‐up” dates) has been advancing or delaying over the Tibetan Plateau during the last two to three decades. Ground‐based budburst data also indicate no consistent trends in spring phenology. The responses of SOS to environmental factors (air temperature, precipitation, soil temperature, and snow depth) also vary among NDVI data sets and phenology retrieval methods. The increases in winter and spring temperature had offsetting effects on spring phenology

Changes in Snow Phenology from 1979 to 2016 over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Snowmelt from the Tianshan Mountains (TS) is a major contributor to the water resources of the Central Asian region. Thus, changes in snow phenology over the TS have significant implications for regional water supplies and ecosystem services. However, the characteristics of changes in snow phenology and their influences on the climate are poorly understood throughout the entire TS due to the lack of in situ observations, limitations of optical remote sensing due to clouds, and decentralized political landscapes. Using passive microwave remote sensing snow data from 1979 to 2016 across the TS, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of snow phenology and their attributes and implications. The results show that the mean snow onset day (Do), snow end day (De), snow cover duration days (Dd), and maximum snow depth (SDmax) from 1979 to 2016 were the 78.2nd day of hydrological year (DOY), 222.4th DOY, 146.2 days, and 16.1 cm over the TS, respectively. Dd exhibited a spatial distribution of days with a temperature of \u3c0 \u3e°C derived from meteorological station observations. Anomalies of snow phenology displayed the regional diversities over the TS, with shortened Dd in high-altitude regions and the Fergana Valley but increased Dd in the Ili Valley and upper reaches of the Chu and Aksu Rivers. Increased SDmax was exhibited in the central part of the TS, and decreased SDmax was observed in the western and eastern parts of the TS. Changes in Dd were dominated by earlier De, which was caused by increased melt-season temperatures (Tm). Earlier De with increased accumulation of seasonal precipitation (Pa) influenced the hydrological processes in the snowmelt recharge basin, increasing runoff and earlier peak runoff in the spring, which intensified the regional water crisi

Remote Sensing of Land Surface Phenology

Land surface phenology (LSP) uses remote sensing to monitor seasonal dynamics in vegetated land surfaces and retrieve phenological metrics (transition dates, rate of change, annual integrals, etc.). LSP has developed rapidly in the last few decades. Both regional and global LSP products have been routinely generated and play prominent roles in modeling crop yield, ecological surveillance, identifying invasive species, modeling the terrestrial biosphere, and assessing impacts on urban and natural ecosystems. Recent advances in field and spaceborne sensor technologies, as well as data fusion techniques, have enabled novel LSP retrieval algorithms that refine retrievals at even higher spatiotemporal resolutions, providing new insights into ecosystem dynamics. Meanwhile, rigorous assessment of the uncertainties in LSP retrievals is ongoing, and efforts to reduce these uncertainties represent an active research area. Open source software and hardware are in development, and have greatly facilitated the use of LSP metrics by scientists outside the remote sensing community. This reprint covers the latest developments in sensor technologies, LSP retrieval algorithms and validation strategies, and the use of LSP products in a variety of fields. It aims to summarize the ongoing diverse LSP developments and boost discussions on future research prospects

Vegetation Dynamics Revealed by Remote Sensing and Its Feedback to Regional and Global Climate

This book focuses on some significant progress in vegetation dynamics and their response to climate change revealed by remote sensing data. The development of satellite remote sensing and its derived products offer fantastic opportunities to investigate vegetation changes and their feedback to regional and global climate systems. Special attention is given in the book to vegetation changes and their drivers, the effects of extreme climate events on vegetation, land surface albedo associated with vegetation changes, plant fingerprints, and vegetation dynamics in climate modeling

Melting of Major Glaciers in Himalayas: Role of Desert Dust and Anthropogenic Aerosols

The Himalayan and Tibet Glaciers, that are among the largest bodies of ice and fresh water resource outside of the polar ice caps, face a significant threat of accelerated meltdown in coming decades due to climate variability and change. The rate of retreat of these glaciers and changes in their terminus (frontal dynamics) is highly variable across the Himalayan range. These large freshwater sources are critical to human activities for food production, human consumption and a whole host of other applications, especially over the Indo-Gangetic (IG) plains. They are also situated in a geo-politically sensitive area surrounded by China, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan where more than a billion people depend on them. The major rivers of the Asian continent such as the Ganga (also known as Ganges), Brahmaputra, Indus, Yamuna, Sutluj etc., originate and pass through these regions and they have greater importance due to their multi-use downstream: hydro power, agriculture, aquaculture, flood control, and as a freshwater resource. Recent studies over the Himalayan Glaciers using ground-based and space-based observations, and computer models indicate a long-term trend of climate variability and change that may accelerate melting of the Himalayan Glaciers.https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/sees_books/1001/thumbnail.jp

Linkages between Atmospheric Circulation, Weather, Climate, Land Cover and Social Dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important landmass that plays a significant role in both regional and global climates. In recent decades, the TP has undergone significant changes due to climate and human activities. Since the 1980s anthropogenic activities, such as the stocking of livestock, land cover change, permafrost degradation, urbanization, highway construction, deforestation and desertification, and unsustainable land management practices, have greatly increased over the TP. As a result, grasslands have undergone rapid degradation and have altered the land surface which in turn has altered the exchange of heat and moisture properties between land and the atmosphere. But gaps still exist in our knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions in the TP and their impacts on weather and climate around the TP, making it difficult to understand the complete energy and water cycles over the region. Moreover, human, and ecological systems are interlinked, and the drivers of change include biophysical, economic, political, social, and cultural elements that operate at different temporal and spatial scales. Current studies do not holistically reflect the complex social-ecological dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau. To increase our understanding of this coupled human-natural system, there is a need for an integrated approach to rendering visible the deep interconnections between the biophysical and social systems of the TP. There is a need for an integrative framework to study the impacts of sedentary and individualized production systems on the health and livelihoods of local communities in the context of land degradation and climate change. To do so, there is a need to understand better the spatial variability and landscape patterns in grassland degradation across the TP. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation is to contribute to our understanding of the changes over the land surface and how these changes impact the plateau\u27s weather, climate, and social dynamics. This dissertation is structured as three interrelated manuscripts, which each explore specific research questions relating to this larger goal. These manuscripts constitute the three primary papers of this dissertation. The first paper documents the significant association of surface energy flux with vegetation cover, as measured by satellite based AVHRR GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, during the early growing season of May in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, a 1°K increase in the temperature at the 500 hPa level was observed. Based on the identified positive effects of vegetation on the temperature associated with decreased NDVI in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau, I propose a positive energy process for land-atmosphere associations. In the second paper, an increase in Landsat-derived NDVI, i.e., a greening, is identified within the TP, especially during 1990 to 2018 and 2000 to 2018 time periods. Larger median growing season NDVI change values were observed for the Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grassland regions, in comparison to the other three regions studied. Land degradation is prominent in the lower and intermediate hillslope positions in comparison to the higher relative topographic positions, and change is more pronounced in the eastern Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grasslands. Geomorphons were found to be an effective spatial unit for analysis of hillslope change patterns. Through the extensive literature review presented in third paper, this dissertation recommends using critical physical geography (CPG) to study environmental and social issues in the TP. The conceptual model proposed provides a framework for analysis of the dominant controls, feedback, and interactions between natural, human, socioeconomic, and governance activities, allowing researchers to untangle climate change, land degradation, and vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau. CPG will further help improve our understanding of the exposure of local people to climate and socio-economic and political change and help policy makers devise appropriate strategies to combat future grassland degradation and to improve the lives and strengthen livelihoods of the inhabitants of the TP

The permafrost carbon inventory on the Tibetan Plateau : a new evaluation using deep sediment cores

Acknowledgements We are grateful for Dr. Jens Strauss and the other two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on an earlier version of this MS, and appreciate members of the IBCAS Sampling Campaign Teams for their assistance in field investigation. This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China on Global Change (2014CB954001 and 2015CB954201), National Natural Science Foundation of China (31322011 and 41371213), and the Thousand Young Talents Program.Peer reviewedPostprin

Satellite-based monitoring of pasture degradation on the Tibetan Plateau: A multi-scale approach

The Tibetan Plateau has been entitled Third-Pole-Environment'' because of its outstanding importance for the global climate and the hydrological system of East and Southeast Asia. Its climatological and hydrological influences are strongly affected by the local vegetation which is supposed to be subject to ongoing degradation. The degradation of the Tibetan pastures was investigated on the local scale by numerous studies. However, because methods and scales substantially differed among the previous studies, the overall pattern of degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is hitherto unknown. Consequently, the aims of this thesis are to monitor recent changes in the grassland degradation on the Tibetan Plateau and to detect the underlying driving forces of the observed changes. Therefore, a comprehensive remote sensing based approach is developed. The new approach consists of three parts and incorporates different spatial and temporal scales: (i) the development and testing of an indicator system for pasture degradation on the local scale, (ii) the development of a MODIS-based product usable for degradation monitoring from the local to the plateau scale, and (iii) the application of the new product to delineate recent changes in the degradation status of the pastures on the Tibetan Plateau. The first part of the new approach comprised the test of the suitability of a new two-indicator system and its transferability to spaceborne data. The indicators were land-cover fractions (e.g.,~green vegetation, bare soil) derived from linear spectral unmixing and chlorophyll content. The latter was incorporated as a proxy for nutrient and water availability. It was estimated combining hyperspectral vegetation indices as predictors in partial least squares regression. The indicator system was established and tested on the local scale using a transect design and textit{in situ} measured data. The promising results revealed clear spatial patterns attributed to degradation, indicating that the combination of vegetation cover and chlorophyll content is a suitable indicator system for the detection of pasture degradation on local scales on the Tibetan Plateau. To delineate patterns of degradation changes on the plateau scale, the green plant coverage of the Tibetan pastures was derived in the second part. Therefore, an upscaling approach was developed. It is based on satellite data from high spatial resolution sensors on the local scale (WorldView-type) via medium resolution data (Landsat) to low resolution data on the plateau scale (MODIS). The different spatial resolutions involved in the methodology were incorporated to enable the cross-validation of the estimations in the new product against field observations (over 600 plots across the entire Tibetan Plateau). Four methods (linear spectral unmixing, spectral angle mapper, partial least squares regression, and support vector machine regression) were tested on their predictive performance for the estimation of plant cover and the method with the highest accuracy (support vector machine regression) was applied to 14 years of MODIS data to generate a new vegetation coverage product. In the third part, the changes in vegetation cover between the years 2000 and 2013 and their driving forces were investigated by comparing the trends in the new vegetation coverage product against climate variables (precipitation from tropical rainfall measuring mission and 2 m air temperature from ERA-Interim reanalysis data) on the entire Tibetan Plateau. Large areas in southern Qinghai were identified where vegetation cover increased as a result of positive precipitation trends. Thus, degradation did not proceed in these regions. Contrasting with this, large areas in the central and western parts of the Tibetan Autonomous Region were subject to an ongoing degradation. This degradation can be attributed to the coincidence of rising temperatures and anthropogenic induced increases in livestock numbers as a consequence of local land-use change. In those areas, the ongoing degradation influenced local precipitation patterns because sensible heat fluxes were accelerated above degraded pastures. In combination with advected moist air masses at higher atmospheric levels, the accelerated heat fluxes led to an intensification of local convective rainfall. The ongoing degradation detected by the new remote sensing approach in this thesis is alarming. The affected regions encompass the river systems of the Indus and Brahmaputra Rivers, where the ongoing degradation negatively affects the water storage capacities of the soils and enhances erosion. In combination with the feed-back mechanisms between plant coverage and the changed precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau, the reduced water storage capacity will exacerbate runoff extremes in the middle and lower reaches of those important river systems