Parameter estimation for biochemical reaction networks using Wasserstein distances

We present a method for estimating parameters in stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks by fitting steady-state distributions using Wasserstein distances. We simulate a reaction network at different parameter settings and train a Gaussian process to learn the Wasserstein distance between observations and the simulator output for all parameters. We then use Bayesian optimization to find parameters minimizing this distance based on the trained Gaussian process. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated on the three-stage model of gene expression and a genetic feedback loop for which moment-based methods are known to perform poorly. Our method is applicable to any simulator model of stochastic reaction networks, including Brownian Dynamics.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures. Slight modifications/additions to the text; added new section (Section 4.4) and Appendi

Integrating discrete stochastic models with single-cell and single-molecule experiments

2019 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Modern biological experiments can capture the behaviors of single biomolecules within single cells. Much like Robert Brown looking at pollen grains in water, experimentalists have noticed that individual cells that are genetically identical behave seemingly randomly in the way they carry out their most basic functions. The field of stochastic single-cell biology has been focused developing mathematical and computational tools to understand how cells try to buffer or even make use of such fluctuations, and the technologies to measure such fluctuations has vastly improved in recent years. This dissertation is focused on developing new methods to analyze modern single-cell and single-molecule biological data with discrete stochastic models of the underlying processes, such as stochastic gene expression and single-mRNA translation. The methods developed here emphasize a strong link between model and experiment to help understand, design, and eventually control biological systems at the single-cell level

Lipid Metabolism and Comparative Genomics

Unilever asked the Study Group to focus on two problems. The first concerned dysregulated lipid metabolism which is a feature of many diseases including metabolic syndrome, obesity and coronary heart disease. The Study Group was asked to develop a model of the kinetics of lipoprotein metabolism between healthy and obese states incorporating the activities of key enzymes. The second concerned the use of comparative genomics in understanding and comparing metabolic networks in bacterium. Comparative genomics is a method to make inferences on the genome of a new organism using information of a previously charaterised organism. The first mathematical question is how one would quantify such a metabolic map in a statistical sense, in particular, where there are different levels of confidence for presense of different parts of the map. The next and most important question is how one can design a measurement strategy to maximise the confidence in the accuracy of the metabolic map

Probabilistic reasoning and inference for systems biology

One of the important challenges in Systems Biology is reasoning and performing hypotheses testing in uncertain conditions, when available knowledge may be incomplete and the experimental data may contain substantial noise. In this thesis we develop methods of probabilistic reasoning and inference that operate consistently within an environment of uncertain knowledge and data. Mechanistic mathematical models are used to describe hypotheses about biological systems. We consider both deductive model based reasoning and model inference from data. The main contributions are a novel modelling approach using continuous time Markov chains that enables deductive derivation of model behaviours and their properties, and the application of Bayesian inferential methods to solve the inverse problem of model inference and comparison, given uncertain knowledge and noisy data. In the first part of the thesis, we consider both individual and population based techniques for modelling biochemical pathways using continuous time Markov chains, and demonstrate why the latter is the most appropriate. We illustrate a new approach, based on symbolic intervals of concentrations, with an example portion of the ERK signalling pathway. We demonstrate that the resulting model approximates the same dynamic system as traditionally defined using ordinary differential equations. The advantage of the new approach is quantitative logical analysis; we formulate a number of biologically significant queries in the temporal logic CSL and use probabilistic symbolic model checking to investigate their veracity. In the second part of the thesis, we consider the inverse problem of model inference and testing of alternative hypotheses, when models are defined by non-linear ordinary differential equations and the experimental data is noisy and sparse. We compare and evaluate a number of statistical techniques, and implement an effective Bayesian inferential framework for systems biology based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and estimation of marginal likelihoods by annealing-melting integration. We illustrate the framework with two case studies, one of which involves an open problem concerning the mediation of ERK phosphorylation in the ERK pathway

Comprehensive review of models and methods for inferences in bio-chemical reaction networks

The key processes in biological and chemical systems are described by networks of chemical reactions. From molecular biology to biotechnology applications, computational models of reaction networks are used extensively to elucidate their non-linear dynamics. The model dynamics are crucially dependent on the parameter values which are often estimated from observations. Over the past decade, the interest in parameter and state estimation in models of (bio-) chemical reaction networks (BRNs) grew considerably. The related inference problems are also encountered in many other tasks including model calibration, discrimination, identifiability, and checking, and optimum experiment design, sensitivity analysis, and bifurcation analysis. The aim of this review paper is to examine the developments in literature to understand what BRN models are commonly used, and for what inference tasks and inference methods. The initial collection of about 700 documents concerning estimation problems in BRNs excluding books and textbooks in computational biology and chemistry were screened to select over 270 research papers and 20 graduate research theses. The paper selection was facilitated by text mining scripts to automate the search for relevant keywords and terms. The outcomes are presented in tables revealing the levels of interest in different inference tasks and methods for given models in the literature as well as the research trends are uncovered. Our findings indicate that many combinations of models, tasks and methods are still relatively unexplored, and there are many new research opportunities to explore combinations that have not been considered—perhaps for good reasons. The most common models of BRNs in literature involve differential equations, Markov processes, mass action kinetics, and state space representations whereas the most common tasks are the parameter inference and model identification. The most common methods in literature are Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo sampling strategies, and model fitting to data using evolutionary algorithms. The new research problems which cannot be directly deduced from the text mining data are also discussed

Markovian Dynamics on Complex Reaction Networks

Complex networks, comprised of individual elements that interact with each other through reaction channels, are ubiquitous across many scientific and engineering disciplines. Examples include biochemical, pharmacokinetic, epidemiological, ecological, social, neural, and multi-agent networks. A common approach to modeling such networks is by a master equation that governs the dynamic evolution of the joint probability mass function of the underling population process and naturally leads to Markovian dynamics for such process. Due however to the nonlinear nature of most reactions, the computation and analysis of the resulting stochastic population dynamics is a difficult task. This review article provides a coherent and comprehensive coverage of recently developed approaches and methods to tackle this problem. After reviewing a general framework for modeling Markovian reaction networks and giving specific examples, the authors present numerical and computational techniques capable of evaluating or approximating the solution of the master equation, discuss a recently developed approach for studying the stationary behavior of Markovian reaction networks using a potential energy landscape perspective, and provide an introduction to the emerging theory of thermodynamic analysis of such networks. Three representative problems of opinion formation, transcription regulation, and neural network dynamics are used as illustrative examples.Comment: 52 pages, 11 figures, for freely available MATLAB software, see http://www.cis.jhu.edu/~goutsias/CSS%20lab/software.htm

Probabilistic modelling of noise as a driving force in biological systems

Systems biology takes a mechanistic, relational approach to the study of biological processes, commonly finding expression in mathematical models. Hypotheses about systems can be tested when formulated as models, and promising avenues for further study identified. A model sufficiently faithful to the system under study can be used to guide experiments, to probe the system in silico, and to learn about emergent features not evident from the static picture of the system. In this work, three contributions to the modelling community are proffered. First, a computational package is presented that implements an algorithm for the validation and parametrisation of a model. In validation, we are asking how likely we were to make some observation, given the model, or, equivalently, how able the model is to explain the data. The subsequent two contributions concern noise in biological systems. Biological systems display inherent variability, or noise, due to the stochastic mechanisms through which biochemical processes occur. This variability can be critical to the behaviour of a system and to the fates of individual cells. With this in mind, the second contribution is the development of a methodology to model protein-dependent population dynamics. The idea is to model cell population dynamics that result of noisy intracellular protein dynamics. The method's application is demonstrated in population-level models of a protein-dependent cell cycle and yeast antibiotic resistance. Given an appreciation of the pivotal effects of noise, the third and final contribution is a study of the mechanism of noise propagation. I present an analysis of the contributions of biochemical reaction motifs to the creation and transmission of noise that ultimately manifest in observations of biological systems. This study points to specific processes that enhance or attenuate noise, with the aim of beginning to unravel the flow of noise through a system.Open Acces