Digital Twin Based Network Latency Prediction in Vehicular Networks

Network latency is a crucial factor affecting the quality of communications networks due to the irregularity of vehicular traffic. To address the problem of performance degradation or instability caused by latency in vehicular networks, this paper proposes a time delay prediction algorithm, in which digital twin technology is employed to obtain a large quantity of actual time delay data for vehicular networks and to verify autocorrelation. Subsequently, to meet the prediction conditions of the ARMA time series model, two neural networks, i.e., Radial basis function (RBF) and Elman networks, were employed to construct a time delay prediction model. The experimental results show that the average relative error of the RBF is 7.6%, whereas that of the Elman-NN is 14.2%. This indicates that the RBF has a better prediction performance, and a better real-time performance than the Elman-NN

Internet of Things and Intelligent Technologies for Efficient Energy Management in a Smart Building Environment

Internet of Things (IoT) is attempting to transform modern buildings into energy efficient, smart, and connected buildings, by imparting capabilities such as real-time monitoring, situational awareness and intelligence, and intelligent control. Digitizing the modern day building environment using IoT improves asset visibility and generates energy savings. This dissertation provides a survey of the role, impact, and challenges and recommended solutions of IoT for smart buildings. It also presents an IoT-based solution to overcome the challenge of inefficient energy management in a smart building environment. The proposed solution consists of developing an Intelligent Computational Engine (ICE), composed of various IoT devices and technologies for efficient energy management in an IoT driven building environment. ICE’s capabilities viz. energy consumption prediction and optimized control of electric loads have been developed, deployed, and dispatched in the Real-Time Power and Intelligent Systems (RTPIS) laboratory, which serves as the IoT-driven building case study environment. Two energy consumption prediction models viz. exponential model and Elman recurrent neural network (RNN) model were developed and compared to determine the most accurate model for use in the development of ICE’s energy consumption prediction capability. ICE’s prediction model was developed in MATLAB using cellular computational network (CCN) technique, whereas the optimized control model was developed jointly in MATLAB and Metasys Building Automation System (BAS) using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and logic connector tool (LCT), respectively. It was demonstrated that the developed CCN-based energy consumption prediction model was highly accurate with low error % by comparing the predicted and the measured energy consumption data over a period of one week. The predicted energy consumption values generated from the CCN model served as a reference for the PSO algorithm to generate control parameters for the optimized control of the electric loads. The LCT model used these control parameters to regulate the electric loads to save energy (increase energy efficiency) without violating any operational constraints. Having ICE’s energy consumption prediction and optimized control of electric loads capabilities is extremely useful for efficient energy management as they ensure that sufficient energy is generated to meet the demands of the electric loads optimally at any time thereby reducing wasted energy due to excess generation. This, in turn, reduces carbon emissions and generates energy and cost savings. While the ICE was tested in a small case-study environment, it could be scaled to any smart building environment

Patterns of mobility in a smart city

Transportation data in smart cities is becoming increasingly available. This data allows building meaningful, intelligent solutions for city residents and city management authorities, the so-called Intelligent Transportation Systems. Our research focused on Lisbon mobility data, provided by Lisbon municipality. The main research objective was to address mobility problems, interdependence, and cascading effects solutions for the city of Lisbon. We developed a data-driven approach based on historical data with a strong focus on visualization methods and dashboard creation. Also, we applied a method based on time series to do prediction based on the traffic congestion data provided. A CRISP-DM approach was applied, integrating different data sources, using Python. Hence, understand traffic patterns, and help the city authorities in the decision-making process, namely more preparedness, adaptability, responsiveness to events.Os dados de transporte, no âmbito das cidades inteligentes, estão cada vez mais disponíveis. Estes dados permitem a construção de soluções inteligentes com impacto significativo na vida dos residentes e nos mecanismos das autoridades de gestão da cidade, os chamados Sistemas de Transporte Inteligentes. A nossa investigação incidiu sobre os dados de mobilidade urbana da cidade de Lisboa, disponibilizados pelo município. O principal objetivo da pesquisa foi abordar os problemas de mobilidade, interdependência e soluções de efeitos em cascata para a cidade de Lisboa. Para alcançar este objetivo foi desenvolvida uma metodologia baseada nos dados históricos do transito no centro urbano da cidade e principais acessos, com uma forte componente de visualização. Foi também aplicado um método baseado em series temporais para fazer a previsão das ocorrências de transito na cidade de Lisboa. Foi aplicada uma abordagem CRISP-DM, integrando diferentes fontes de dados, utilizando Python. Esta tese tem como objetivo identificar padrões de mobilidade urbana com análise e visualização de dados, de forma a auxiliar as autoridades municipais no processo de tomada de decisão, nomeadamente estar mais preparada, adaptada e responsiva

Power System Distributed Dynamic State Prediction

The security of the power system can be enhanced with the prediction of the dynamic state variables. To increase the security, a distributed predictor is developed based on the Elman Recurrent Neural Network (ERNN) in this study. To develop a scalable distributed predictor, the whole network is divided in a number of ERNNs. They take the current and the previous actual states from its own and its neighbors to predict the near future values of the states. The concept is inspired from the Cellular Computational Network (CCN) framework. Each ERNN is a cell in the CCN framework. Through simulation, the effectiveness of the proposed network is shown for a single step and a multi-step predictor and their accuracies are analyzed for IEEE 68-bus system

Time series prediction with simple recurrent neural networks

Simple recurrent neural networks are widely used in time series prediction. Most researchers and application developers often choose arbitrarily between Elman or Jordan simple recurrent neural networks for their applications. A hybrid of the two called Elman-Jordan (or Multi-recurrent) neural network is also being used. In this study, we evaluated the performance of these neural networks on three established bench mark time series prediction problems. Results from the experiments showed that Jordan neural network performed significantly better than the others. However, the results indicated satisfactory forecasting performance by the other two neural networks.Key Words: Time Series Prediction, Artificial Neural Network, Recurrent NN, Resilient Propagation

An Experimental Review on Deep Learning Architectures for Time Series Forecasting

In recent years, deep learning techniques have outperformed traditional models in many machine learning tasks. Deep neural networks have successfully been applied to address time series forecasting problems, which is a very important topic in data mining. They have proved to be an effective solution given their capacity to automatically learn the temporal dependencies present in time series. However, selecting the most convenient type of deep neural network and its parametrization is a complex task that requires considerable expertise. Therefore, there is a need for deeper studies on the suitability of all existing architectures for different forecasting tasks. In this work, we face two main challenges: a comprehensive review of the latest works using deep learning for time series forecasting; and an experimental study comparing the performance of the most popular architectures. The comparison involves a thorough analysis of seven types of deep learning models in terms of accuracy and efficiency. We evaluate the rankings and distribution of results obtained with the proposed models under many different architecture configurations and training hyperparameters. The datasets used comprise more than 50000 time series divided into 12 different forecasting problems. By training more than 38000 models on these data, we provide the most extensive deep learning study for time series forecasting. Among all studied models, the results show that long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional networks (CNN) are the best alternatives, with LSTMs obtaining the most accurate forecasts. CNNs achieve comparable performance with less variability of results under different parameter configurations, while also being more efficient

An Experimental Review on Deep Learning Architectures for Time Series Forecasting

In recent years, deep learning techniques have outperformed traditional models in many machine learning tasks. Deep neural networks have successfully been applied to address time series forecasting problems, which is a very important topic in data mining. They have proved to be an effective solution given their capacity to automatically learn the temporal dependencies present in time series. However, selecting the most convenient type of deep neural network and its parametrization is a complex task that requires considerable expertise. Therefore, there is a need for deeper studies on the suitability of all existing architectures for different forecasting tasks. In this work, we face two main challenges: a comprehensive review of the latest works using deep learning for time series forecasting and an experimental study comparing the performance of the most popular architectures. The comparison involves a thorough analysis of seven types of deep learning models in terms of accuracy and efficiency. We evaluate the rankings and distribution of results obtained with the proposed models under many different architecture configurations and training hyperparameters. The datasets used comprise more than 50,000 time series divided into 12 different forecasting problems. By training more than 38,000 models on these data, we provide the most extensive deep learning study for time series forecasting. Among all studied models, the results show that long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional networks (CNN) are the best alternatives, with LSTMs obtaining the most accurate forecasts. CNNs achieve comparable performance with less variability of results under different parameter configurations, while also being more efficient.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades TIN2017-88209-C2Junta de Andalucía US-1263341Junta de Andalucía P18-RT-277

Smart Computer Security Audit: Reinforcement Learning with a Deep Neural Network Approximator

A significant challenge in modern computer security is the growing skill gap as intruder capabilities increase, making it necessary to begin automating elements of penetration testing so analysts can contend with the growing number of cyber threats. In this paper, we attempt to assist human analysts by automating a single host penetration attack. To do so, a smart agent performs different attack sequences to find vulnerabilities in a target system. As it does so, it accumulates knowledge, learns new attack sequences and improves its own internal penetration testing logic. As a result, this agent (AgentPen for simplicity) is able to successfully penetrate hosts it has never interacted with before. A computer security administrator using this tool would receive a comprehensive, automated sequence of actions leading to a security breach, highlighting potential vulnerabilities, and reducing the amount of menial tasks a typical penetration tester would need to execute. To achieve autonomy, we apply an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, Q-learning, with an approximator that incorporates a deep neural network architecture. The security audit itself is modelled as a Markov Decision Process in order to test a number of decisionmaking strategies and compare their convergence to optimality. A series of experimental results is presented to show how this approach can be effectively used to automate penetration testing using a scalable, i.e. not exhaustive, and adaptive approach

Performance Comparison Between HMLP, MLP And Recurrent Networks With Applications To Carbon Monoxide Concentrations Forecasting.

This paper compares the performance of Hybrid Multilayered Perceptron (HMLP) network, Multilayered Perceptron (MLP) network and Recurrent network. These networks are used to model and forecast carbon monoxide (CO) concentration