Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)

Reconciling Land-Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses with P-ET in Observationally-Driven Land Surface Models

Vertically integrated atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land [vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux convergence (VMFC)] is a dynamic component of the global climate system but remains problematic in atmospheric reanalyses, with current estimates having significant multidecadal global trends differing even in sign. Continual evolution of the global observing system, particularly stepwise improvements in satellite observations, has introduced discrete changes in the ability of data assimilation to correct systematic model biases, manifesting as nonphysical variability. Land surface models (LSMs) forced with observed precipitation P and near-surface meteorology and radiation provide estimates of evapotranspiration (ET). Since variability of atmospheric moisture storage is small on interannual and longer time scales, VMFC equals P minus ET is a good approximation and LSMs can provide an alternative estimate. However, heterogeneous density of rain gauge coverage, especially the sparse coverage over tropical continents, remains a serious concern. Rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) with prefiltering of VMFC to isolate the artificial variability is used to investigate artifacts in five reanalysis systems. This procedure, although ad hoc, enables useful VMFC corrections over global land. The P minus ET estimates from seven different LSMs are evaluated and subsequently used to confirm the efficacy of the RPCA-based adjustments. Global VMFC trends over the period 1979-2012 ranging from 0.07 to minus 0.03 millimeters per day per decade are reduced by the adjustments to 0.016 millimeters per day per decade, much closer to the LSM P minus ET estimate (0.007 millimeters per day per decade). Neither is significant at the 90 percent level. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)-related modulation of VMFC and P minus ET remains the largest global interannual signal, with mean LSM and adjusted reanalysis time series correlating at 0.86

Earth observing system: 1989 reference handbook

NASA is studying a coordinated effort called the Mission to Planet Earth to understand global change. The goals are to understand the Earth as a system, and to determine those processes that contribute to the environmental balance, as well as those that may result in changes. The Earth Observing System (Eos) is the centerpiece of the program. Eos will create an integrated scientific observing system that will enable multidisciplinary study of the Earth including the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, polar regions, and solid Earth. Science goals, the Eos data and information system, experiments, measuring instruments, and interdisciplinary investigations are described

Report of the 4th World Climate Research Programme International Conference on Reanalyses

The 4th WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses provided an opportunity for the international community to review and discuss the observational and modelling research, as well as process studies and uncertainties associated with reanalysis of the Earth System and its components. Characterizing the uncertainty and quality of reanalyses is a task that reaches far beyond the international community of producers, and into the interdisciplinary research community, especially those using reanalysis products in their research and applications. Reanalyses have progressed greatly even in the last 5 years, and newer ideas, projects and data are coming forward. While reanalysis has typically been carried out for the individual domains of atmosphere, ocean and land, it is now moving towards coupling using Earth system models. Observations are being reprocessed and they are providing improved quality for use in reanalysis. New applications are being investigated, and the need for climate reanalyses is as strong as ever. At the heart of it all, new investigators are exploring the possibilities for reanalysis, and developing new ideas in research and applications. Given the many centres creating reanalyses products (e.g. ocean, land and cryosphere research centres as well as NWP and atmospheric centers), and the development of new ideas (e.g. families of reanalyses), the total number of reanalyses is increasing greatly, with new and innovative diagnostics and output data. The need for reanalysis data is growing steadily, and likewise, the need for open discussion and comment on the data. The 4th Conference was convened to provide a forum for constructive discussion on the objectives, strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, indicating potential development paths for the future

Workshop on Strategies for Calibration and Validation of Global Change Measurements

The Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Task Force on Observations and Data Management hosted a Global Change Calibration/Validation Workshop on May 10-12, 1995, in Arlington, Virginia. This Workshop was convened by Robert Schiffer of NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C., for the CENR Secretariat with a view toward assessing and documenting lessons learned in the calibration and validation of large-scale, long-term data sets in land, ocean, and atmospheric research programs. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) hosted the meeting on behalf of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)/Working Group on Calibration/walidation, the Global Change Observing System (GCOS), and the U. S. CENR. A meeting of experts from the international scientific community was brought together to develop recommendations for calibration and validation of global change data sets taken from instrument series and across generations of instruments and technologies. Forty-nine scientists from nine countries participated. The U. S., Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Russia, and Kenya were represented