Networks of ⋅/G/∞\cdot/G/\infty Server Queues with Shot-Noise-Driven Arrival Intensities

We study infinite-server queues in which the arrival process is a Cox process (or doubly stochastic Poisson process), of which the arrival rate is given by shot noise. A shot-noise rate emerges as a natural model, if the arrival rate tends to display sudden increases (or: shots) at random epochs, after which the rate is inclined to revert to lower values. Exponential decay of the shot noise is assumed, so that the queueing systems are amenable for analysis. In particular, we perform transient analysis on the number of customers in the queue jointly with the value of the driving shot-noise process. Additionally, we derive heavy-traffic asymptotics for the number of customers in the system by using a linear scaling of the shot intensity. First we focus on a one dimensional setting in which there is a single infinite-server queue, which we then extend to a network setting

Poisson process bandits:Sequential models and algorithms for maximising the detection of point data

In numerous settings in areas as diverse as security, ecology, astronomy, and logistics, it is desirable to optimally deploy a limited resource to observe events, which may be modelled as point data arising according to a Non-homogeneous Poisson process. Increasingly, thanks to developments in mobile and adaptive technologies, it is possible to update a deployment of such resource and gather feedback on the quality of multiple actions. Such a capability presents the opportunity to learn, and with it a classic problem in operations research and machine learning - the explorationexploitation dilemma. To perform optimally, how should investigative choices which explore the value of poorly understood actions and optimising choices which choose actions known to be of a high value be balanced? Effective techniques exist to resolve this dilemma in simpler settings, but the Poisson process data brings new challenges. In this thesis, effective solution methods for the problem of sequentially deploying resource are developed, via a combination of efficient inference schemes, bespoke optimisation approaches, and advanced sequential decision-making strategies. Furthermore, extensive theoretical work provides strong guarantees on the performance of the proposed solution methods and an understanding of the challenges of this problem and more complex extensions. In particular, Upper Confidence Bound and Thompson Sampling (TS) approaches are derived for combinatorial and continuum-armed bandit versions of the problem, with accompanying analysis displaying that the regret of the approaches is of optimal order. A broader understanding of the performance of TS based on non-parametric models for smooth reward functions is developed, and new posterior contraction results for the Gaussian Cox Process, a popular Bayesian non-parametric model of point data, are derived. These results point to effective strategies for more challenging variants of the event detection problem, and more generally advance the understanding of bandit decision-making with complex data structures

Change-point Problem and Regression: An Annotated Bibliography

The problems of identifying changes at unknown times and of estimating the location of changes in stochastic processes are referred to as the change-point problem or, in the Eastern literature, as disorder . The change-point problem, first introduced in the quality control context, has since developed into a fundamental problem in the areas of statistical control theory, stationarity of a stochastic process, estimation of the current position of a time series, testing and estimation of change in the patterns of a regression model, and most recently in the comparison and matching of DNA sequences in microarray data analysis. Numerous methodological approaches have been implemented in examining change-point models. Maximum-likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation, isotonic regression, piecewise regression, quasi-likelihood and non-parametric regression are among the methods which have been applied to resolving challenges in change-point problems. Grid-searching approaches have also been used to examine the change-point problem. Statistical analysis of change-point problems depends on the method of data collection. If the data collection is ongoing until some random time, then the appropriate statistical procedure is called sequential. If, however, a large finite set of data is collected with the purpose of determining if at least one change-point occurred, then this may be referred to as non-sequential. Not surprisingly, both the former and the latter have a rich literature with much of the earlier work focusing on sequential methods inspired by applications in quality control for industrial processes. In the regression literature, the change-point model is also referred to as two- or multiple-phase regression, switching regression, segmented regression, two-stage least squares (Shaban, 1980), or broken-line regression. The area of the change-point problem has been the subject of intensive research in the past half-century. The subject has evolved considerably and found applications in many different areas. It seems rather impossible to summarize all of the research carried out over the past 50 years on the change-point problem. We have therefore confined ourselves to those articles on change-point problems which pertain to regression. The important branch of sequential procedures in change-point problems has been left out entirely. We refer the readers to the seminal review papers by Lai (1995, 2001). The so called structural change models, which occupy a considerable portion of the research in the area of change-point, particularly among econometricians, have not been fully considered. We refer the reader to Perron (2005) for an updated review in this area. Articles on change-point in time series are considered only if the methodologies presented in the paper pertain to regression analysis