Proactive management of uncertainty to improve scheduling robustness in proces industries

Dinamisme, capacitat de resposta i flexibilitat són característiques essencials en el desenvolupament de la societat actual. Les noves tendències de globalització i els avenços en tecnologies de la informació i comunicació fan que s'evolucioni en un entorn altament dinàmic i incert. La incertesa present en tot procés esdevé un factor crític a l'hora de prendre decisions, així com un repte altament reconegut en l'àrea d'Enginyeria de Sistemes de Procés (PSE). En el context de programació de les operacions, els models de suport a la decisió proposats fins ara, així com també software comercial de planificació i programació d'operacions avançada, es basen generalment en dades estimades, assumint implícitament que el programa d'operacions s'executarà sense desviacions. La reacció davant els efectes de la incertesa en temps d'execució és una pràctica habitual, però no sempre resulta efectiva o factible. L'alternativa és considerar la incertesa de forma proactiva, és a dir, en el moment de prendre decisions, explotant el coneixement disponible en el propi sistema de modelització.Davant aquesta situació es plantegen les següents preguntes: què s'entén per incertesa? Com es pot considerar la incertesa en el problema de programació d'operacions? Què s'entén per robustesa i flexibilitat d'un programa d'operacions? Com es pot millorar aquesta robustesa? Quins beneficis comporta? Aquesta tesi respon a aquestes preguntes en el marc d'anàlisis operacionals en l'àrea de PSE. La incertesa es considera no de la forma reactiva tradicional, sinó amb el desenvolupament de sistemes proactius de suport a la decisió amb l'objectiu d'identificar programes d'operació robustos que serveixin com a referència pel nivell inferior de control de planta, així com també per altres centres en un entorn de cadenes de subministrament. Aquest treball de recerca estableix les bases per formalitzar el concepte de robustesa d'un programa d'operacions de forma sistemàtica. Segons aquest formalisme, els temps d'operació i les ruptures d'equip són considerats inicialment com a principals fonts d'incertesa presents a nivell de programació de la producció. El problema es modelitza mitjançant programació estocàstica, desenvolupant-se finalment un entorn d'optimització basat en simulació que captura les múltiples fonts d'incertesa, així com també estratègies de programació d'operacions reactiva, de forma proactiva. La metodologia desenvolupada en el context de programació de la producció s'estén posteriorment per incloure les operacions de transport en sistemes de múltiples entitats i incertesa en els temps de distribució. Amb aquesta perspectiva més àmplia del nivell d'operació s'estudia la coordinació de les activitats de producció i transport, fins ara centrada en nivells estratègic o tàctic. L'estudi final considera l'efecte de la incertesa en la demanda en les decisions de programació de la producció a curt termini. El problema s'analitza des del punt de vista de gestió del risc, i s'avaluen diferents mesures per controlar l'eficiència del sistema en un entorn incert.En general, la tesi posa de manifest els avantatges en reconèixer i modelitzar la incertesa, amb la identificació de programes d'operació robustos capaços d'adaptar-se a un ampli rang de situacions possibles, enlloc de programes d'operació òptims per un escenari hipotètic. La metodologia proposada a nivell d'operació es pot considerar com un pas inicial per estendre's a nivells de decisió estratègics i tàctics. Alhora, la visió proactiva del problema permet reduir el buit existent entre la teoria i la pràctica industrial, i resulta en un major coneixement del procés, visibilitat per planificar activitats futures, així com també millora l'efectivitat de les tècniques reactives i de tot el sistema en general, característiques altament desitjables per mantenir-se actiu davant la globalitat, competitivitat i dinàmica que envolten un procés.Dynamism, responsiveness, and flexibility are essential features in the development of the current society. Globalization trends and fast advances in communication and information technologies make all evolve in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment. The uncertainty involved in a process system becomes a critical problem in decision making, as well as a recognized challenge in the area of Process Systems Engineering (PSE). In the context of scheduling, decision-support models developed up to this point, as well as commercial advanced planning and scheduling systems, rely generally on estimated input information, implicitly assuming that a schedule will be executed without deviations. The reaction to the effects of the uncertainty at execution time becomes a common practice, but it is not always effective or even possible. The alternative is to address the uncertainty proactively, i.e., at the time of reasoning, exploiting the available knowledge in the modeling procedure itself. In view of this situation, the following questions arise: what do we understand for uncertainty? How can uncertainty be considered within scheduling modeling systems? What is understood for schedule robustness and flexibility? How can schedule robustness be improved? What are the benefits? This thesis answers these questions in the context of operational analysis in PSE. Uncertainty is managed not from the traditional reactive viewpoint, but with the development of proactive decision-support systems aimed at identifying robust schedules that serve as a useful guidance for the lower control level, as well as for dependent entities in a supply chain environment. A basis to formalize the concept of schedule robustness is established. Based on this formalism, variable operation times and equipment breakdowns are first considered as the main uncertainties in short-term production scheduling. The problem is initially modeled using stochastic programming, and a simulation-based stochastic optimization framework is finally developed, which captures the multiple sources of uncertainty, as well as rescheduling strategies, proactively. The procedure-oriented system developed in the context of production scheduling is next extended to involve transport scheduling in multi-site systems with uncertain travel times. With this broader operational perspective, the coordination of production and transport activities, considered so far mainly in strategic and tactical analysis, is assessed. The final research point focuses on the effect of demands uncertainty in short-term scheduling decisions. The problem is analyzed from a risk management viewpoint, and alternative measures are assessed and compared to control the performance of the system in the uncertain environment.Overall, this research work reveals the advantages of recognizing and modeling uncertainty, with the identification of more robust schedules able to adapt to a wide range of possible situations, rather than optimal schedules for a hypothetical scenario. The management of uncertainty proposed from an operational perspective can be considered as a first step towards its extension to tactical and strategic levels of decision. The proactive perspective of the problem results in a more realistic view of the process system, and it is a promising way to reduce the gap between theory and industrial practices. Besides, it provides valuable insight on the process, visibility for future activities, as well as it improves the efficiency of reactive techniques and of the overall system, all highly desirable features to remain alive in the global, competitive, and dynamic process environment

Food supply chain network robustness : a literature review and research agenda

Today’s business environment is characterized by challenges of strong global competition where companies tend to achieve leanness and maximum responsiveness. However, lean supply chain networks (SCNs) become more vulnerable to all kind of disruptions. Food SCNs have to become robust, i.e. they should be able to continue to function in the event of disruption as well as in normal business environment. Current literature provides no explicit clarification related to robustness issue in food SCN context. This paper explores the meaning of SCN robustness and highlights further research direction

Integrated management of chemical processes in a competitive environment

El objetivo general de esta Tesis es mejorar el proceso de la toma de decisiones en la gestión de cadenas de suministro, tomando en cuenta principalmente dos diferencias: ser competitivo considerando las decisiones propias de la cadena de suministro, y ser competitivo dentro de un entorno global. La estructura de ésta tesis se divide en 4 partes principales: La Parte I consiste en una introducción general de los temas cubiertos en esta Tesis (Capítulo 1). Una revisión de la literatura, que nos permite identificar las problemáticas asociadas al proceso de toma de decisiones (Capítulo 2). El Capítulo 3 presenta una introducción de las técnicas y métodos de optimización utilizados para resolver los problemas propuestos en esta Tesis. La Parte II se enfoca en la integración de los niveles de decisión, buscando mejorar la toma de decisiones de la propia cadena de suministro. El Capítulo 4 presenta una formulación matemática que integra las decisiones de síntesis de procesos y las decisiones operacionales. Además, este capítulo presenta un modelo integrado para la toma de decisiones operacionales incluyendo las características del control de procesos. El Capítulo 5 muestra la integración de las decisiones del nivel táctico y el operacional, dicha propuesta está basada en el conocimiento adquirido capturando la información relacionada al nivel operacional. Una vez obtenida esta información se incluye en la toma de decisiones a nivel táctico. Finalmente en el capítulo 6 se desarrolla un modelo simplificado para integrar múltiples cadenas de suministro. El modelo propuesto incluye la información detallada de las entidades presentes en una cadena de suministro (suministradores, plantas de producción, distribuidores y mercados) introduciéndola en un modelo matemático para su coordinación. La Parte III propone la integración explicita de múltiples cadenas de suministro que tienen que enfrentar numerosas situaciones propias de un mercado global. Asimismo, esta parte presenta una nueva herramienta de optimización basada en el uso integrado de métodos de programación matemática y conceptos relacionados a la Teoría de Juegos. En el Capítulo 7 analiza múltiples cadenas de suministro que cooperan o compiten por la demanda global del mercado. El Capítulo 8 incluye una comparación entre el problema resuelto en el Capítulo anterior y un modelo estocástico, los resultados obtenidos nos permiten situar el comportamiento de los competidores como fuente exógena de la incertidumbre típicamente asociada la demanda del mercado. Además, los resultados de ambos Capítulos muestran una mejora sustancial en el coste total de las cadenas de suministro asociada al hecho de cooperar para atender de forma conjunta la demanda disponible. Es por esto, que el Capítulo 9 presenta una nueva herramienta de negociación, basada en la resolución del mismo problema (Capítulo 7) bajo un análisis multiobjetivo. Finalmente, la parte IV presenta las conclusiones finales y una descripción general del trabajo futuro.This Thesis aims to enhance the decision making process in the SCM, remarking the difference between optimizing the SC to be competitive by its own, and to be competitive in a global market in cooperative and competitive environments. The structure of this work has been divided in four main parts: Part I: consists in a general introduction of the main topics covered in this manuscript (Chapter I); a review of the State of the Art that allows us to identify new open issues in the PSE (Chapter 2). Finally, Chapter 3 introduces the main optimization techniques and methods used in this contribution. Part II focuses on the integration of decision making levels in order to improve the decision making of a single SC: Chapter 4 presents a novel formulation to integrate synthesis and scheduling decision making models, additionally, this chapter also shows an integrated operational and control decision making model for distributed generations systems (EGS). Chapter 5 shows the integration of tactical and operational decision making levels. In this chapter a knowledge based approach has been developed capturing the information related to the operational decision making level. Then, this information has been included in the tactical decision making model. In Chapter 6 a simplified approach for integrated SCs is developed, the detailed information of the typical production‐distribution SC echelons has been introduced in a coordinated SC model. Part III proposes the explicit integration of several SC’s decision making in order to face several real market situations. As well, a novel formulation is developed using an MILP model and Game Theory (GT) as a decision making tool. Chapter 7 includes the tactical and operational analysis of several SC’s cooperating or competing for the global market demand. Moreover, Chapter 8 includes a comparison, based on the previous results (MILP‐GT optimization tool) and a two stage stochastic optimization model. Results from both Chapters show how cooperating for the global demand represent an improvement of the overall total cost. Consequently, Chapter 9 presents a bargaining tool obtained by the Multiobjective (MO) resolution of the model presented in Chapter 7. Finally, final conclusions and further work have been provided in Part IV.Postprint (published version

Robust Optimization Framework to Operating Room Planning and Scheduling in Stochastic Environment

Arrangement of surgical activities can be classified as a three-level process that directly impacts the overall performance of a healthcare system. The goal of this dissertation is to study hierarchical planning and scheduling problems of operating room (OR) departments that arise in a publicly funded hospital. Uncertainty in surgery durations and patient arrivals, the existence of multiple resources and competing performance measures are among the important aspect of OR problems in practice. While planning can be viewed as the compromise of supply and demand within the strategic and tactical stages, scheduling is referred to the development of a detailed timetable that determines operational daily assignment of individual cases. Therefore, it is worthwhile to put effort in optimization of OR planning and surgical scheduling. We have considered several extensions of previous models and described several real-world applications. Firstly, we have developed a novel transformation framework for the robust optimization (RO) method to be used as a generalized approach to overcome the drawback of conventional RO approach owing to its difficulty in obtaining information regarding numerous control variable terms as well as added extra variables and constraints into the model in transforming deterministic models into the robust form. We have determined an optimal case mix planning for a given set of specialties for a single operating room department using the proposed standard RO framework. In this case-mix planning problem, demands for elective and emergency surgery are considered to be random variables realized over a set of probabilistic scenarios. A deterministic and a two-stage stochastic recourse programming model is also developed for the uncertain surgery case mix planning to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed RO models. The objective is to minimize the expected total loss incurred due to postponed and unmet demand as well as the underutilization costs. We have shown that the optimum solution can be found in polynomial time. Secondly, the tactical and operational level decision of OR block scheduling and advance scheduling problems are considered simultaneously to overcome the drawback of current literature in addressing these problems in isolation. We have focused on a hybrid master surgery scheduling (MSS) and surgical case assignment (SCA) problem under the assumption that both surgery durations and emergency arrivals follow probability distributions defined over a discrete set of scenarios. We have developed an integrated robust MSS and SCA model using the proposed standard transformation framework and determined the allocation of surgical specialties to the ORs as well as the assignment of surgeries within each specialty to the corresponding ORs in a coordinated way to minimize the costs associated with patients waiting time and hospital resource utilization. To demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the two proposed models, a simulation study is carried utilizing data provided by Windsor Regional Hospital (WRH). The simulation results demonstrate that the two proposed models can mitigate the existing variability in parameter uncertainty. This provides a more reliable decision tool for the OR managers while limiting the negative impact of waiting time to the patients as well as welfare loss to the hospital

A review of discrete-time optimization models for tactical production planning

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published in International Journal of Production Research on 27 Mar 2014, available online: http://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2014.899721[EN] This study presents a review of optimization models for tactical production planning. The objective of this research is to identify streams and future research directions in this field based on the different classification criteria proposed. The major findings indicate that: (1) the most popular production-planning area is master production scheduling with a big-bucket time-type period; (2) most of the considered limited resources correspond to productive resources and, to a lesser extent, to inventory capacities; (3) the consideration of backlogs, set-up times, parallel machines, overtime capacities and network-type multisite configuration stand out in terms of extensions; (4) the most widely used modelling approach is linear/integer/mixed integer linear programming solved with exact algorithms, such as branch-and-bound, in commercial MIP solvers; (5) CPLEX, C and its variants and Lindo/Lingo are the most popular development tools among solvers, programming languages and modelling languages, respectively; (6) most works perform numerical experiments with random created instances, while a small number of works were validated by real-world data from industrial firms, of which the most popular are sawmills, wood and furniture, automobile and semiconductors and electronic devices.This study has been funded by the Universitat Politècnica de València projects: ‘Material Requirement Planning Fourth Generation (MRPIV)’ (Ref. PAID-05-12) and ‘Quantitative Models for the Design of Socially Responsible Supply Chains under Uncertainty Conditions. Application of Solution Strategies based on Hybrid Metaheuristics’ (PAID-06-12).Díaz-Madroñero Boluda, FM.; Mula, J.; Peidro Payá, D. (2014). A review of discrete-time optimization models for tactical production planning. International Journal of Production Research. 52(17):5171-5205. doi:10.1080/00207543.2014.899721S51715205521

Capacity Planning and Resource Acquisition Decisions Using Robust Optimization

This dissertation studies strategic capacity planning and resource acquisition decisions, including the facility location problem and the technology choice problem. These decisions are modeled in an integrative manner, and the main purpose of the proposed models and numerical experiments is to examine the effects of economies of scale, economies of scope, and the combined effects of scale and scope under uncertain demand realizations using robust optimization. The type of capacities, or technology alternatives, that a firm can acquire can be classified on two basic dimensions. The first dimension relates to the effects of scale via distinction between labor-intensive (less automated) technologies and capital-intensive (more automated) technologies. The second dimension relates to the effects of scope via distinction between product-dedicated and flexible technologies. Moreover, each of the product-dedicated and flexible technologies can have different levels of labor or capital-intensiveness, leading to the joint effects of economies of scale and economies of scope. Each of the technology alternatives possesses certain cost structures. Labor-intensive technologies are characterized by low fixed costs and high variable costs, whereas capital-intensive technologies are characterized by just the opposite cost structure, i.e., high fixed costs and low variable costs. Flexible technologies cost more than product-dedicated technologies, both in terms of fixed and variable costs. Robust optimization methodology is used to investigate how different levels of robustness, and facility and technology costs affect the quantities, types and allocation of technologies to facilities. Results show that specific technology choice patterns emerge depending on various cost structures and different levels of model robustness specified to accommodate uncertain demand realizations. The results obtained by the two-stage robust optimization approach are compared to the results obtained by a non-robust approach and a stochastic programming approach

Integrated optimisation for production capacity, raw material ordering and production planning under time and quantity uncertainties based on two case studies

Abstract This paper develops a supply chain (SC) model by integrating raw material ordering and production planning, and production capacity decisions based upon two case studies in manufacturing firms. Multiple types of uncertainties are considered; including: time-related uncertainty (that exists in lead-time and delay) and quantity-related uncertainty (that exists in information and material flows). The SC model consists of several sub-models, which are first formulated mathematically. Simulation (simulation-based stochastic approximation) and genetic algorithm tools are then developed to evaluate several non-parameterised strategies and optimise two parameterised strategies. Experiments are conducted to contrast these strategies, quantify their relative performance, and illustrate the value of information and the impact of uncertainties. These case studies provide useful insights into understanding to what degree the integrated planning model including production capacity decisions could benefit economically in different scenarios, which types of data should be shared, and how these data could be utilised to achieve a better SC system. This study provides insights for small and middle-sized firm management to make better decisions regarding production capacity issues with respect to external uncertainty and/or disruptions; e.g. trade wars and pandemics.</jats:p

A decision model for natural oil buying policy under uncertainty

A manufacturer, in a fast moving consumer goods industry, buys Natural oils from a number of oil suppliers world-wide. The prices of these oils are the major raw material cost in producing the consumer goods, which are also sold world-wide. The volatility in the international prices of the Natural oils has signi¯cant impact on the planning and budgets decisions. Since the oils are bought and the ¯nished products are sold in markets throughout the world, the manufacturer is exposed to a variety of market uncertainties and the resulting risks. These uncertainties are the raw material prices, the demand and the therefore the selling prices for the finished goods- all of which influence the profitability of the manufacturing firm. The risks can be minimised by entering into futures contract of appropriate duration, that is, by following a schedule of "forward"' purchase of oil (with specific series of future delivery dates) with the oil suppliers. We formulate this problem as a two-stage Stochastic Program (SP) using the futures and the spot prices for the Natural oil. This SP model gives robust decisions that hedge against the uncertainties in the Natural oil prices and the demand for the finished products. The uncertainty in the oil prices and the demand are modelled through a scenario generator. We have constructed a decision support system (DSS) that integrates the SP model, the scenario generator and the solution algorithm. This DSS also provides the decision maker a profile of the risk and return exposures for different policies

Modeling a Remanufacturing Reverse Logistics Planning Problem: Some Insights into Disruptive Technology Adoption

Remanufacturing is the process to restore the functionality of high-value end-of-life (EOL) products, which is considered a substantial link in reverse logistics systems for value recovery. However, due to the uncertainty of the reverse material fow, the planning of a remanufacturing reverse logistics system is complex. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of disruptive technologies in Industry 4.0/5.0, e.g., the Internet of things (IoT), smart robots, cloud-based digital twins, and additive manufacturing, has shown great potential for a smart paradigm transition of remanufacturing reverse logistics operations. In this paper, a new mixed-integer program is modeled for supporting several tactical decisions in remanufacturing reverse logistics, i.e., remanufacturing setups, production planning and inventory levels, core acquisition and transportation, and remanufacturing line balancing and utilization. The model is further extended by incorporating utilization-dependent nonlinear idle time cost constraints and stochastic takt time to accommodate diferent real-world scenarios. Through a set of numerical experiments, the infuences of diferent demand patterns and idle time constraints are revealed. The potential impacts of disruptive technology adoption in remanufacturing reverse logistics are also discussed from managerial perspectives, which may help remanufacturing companies with a smart and smooth transition in the Industry 4.0/5.0 era