experiences from Estonian energy sector planning

LIAISE Policy Brief No. 3 on "Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning" has just been published. The LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model is a software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment. In 2012, a re-assessment of LEAP modelling results on CO2 and SO2 emissions in the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Estonian National Energy Sector Development Plan until 2020 (further referred to as the Energy Plan 2020) was carried out. The aim of this re-assessment was to find out to what extent the LEAP model results for the Energy Plan 2020 were achieved and what were the possible reasons for deviation. The results highlight the opportunities for policy learning through the re-assessment of modelling results and the need to find out how to include into Impact Assessment the uncertainties that remain outside the scope of models

Strategic electricity planning decisions

Sustainable electricity power planning involves trade-offs between multiple goals. The different attributes of each technology or generation portfolio in terms of the attainment of society goals must be assessed and included in the planning models. Optimization models always played an important role for supporting complex planning decision making, from which the particular case of the electricity industry stands out. This study addresses energy policy and strategic central decisions, presenting a long-term model for electricity planning. A MILP problem is described, which addresses a mixed hydro-thermal-wind power system close to the Portuguese electricity case. Through scenario analysis, the expected impacts in terms of costs, CO2 emissions and external energy dependence are evaluated for a 10 years planning period. Based on the assumed cost information and on the imposed technical restrictions, the obtained results put in evidence the importance of coal power plants combined with new hydro power investments for minimum cost scenarios.This work was financed by: the QREN – Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors, the European Union – European Regional Development Fund and National Funds- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under Project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-011377 and Project Pest-OE/EME/UI0252/2011

Optimization models to support sustainable electricity planning decisions

Over the last decades, models and concepts related to sustainable electricity planning decisions have been changed according to the society, energy policy objectives and concerns. New and clean energy technologies are emerging as major contributors for the achievement of a set of imposed goals, being the energy efficiency combined with renewable energy sources (RES) a key strategy for a sustainable future. Power planning based on optimization models plays an important role for, not only electricity industry decision making process, but also for all processes where complex decision must be made. Following the idea of sustainability combined with the emergence of RES, this study aims to present an on-going research project that involves the development of a set of mathematical models to be used on the electricity planning. Assuming a time period of 10 years and through scenario analysis, the expected impacts in terms of costs and CO2 emissions were evaluated. The behaviour of system when coal and gas fuel price varies is observed. The results put evidence the significant wind power and hydro power impacts on the electricity sector performance and demonstrate importance of these technologies to achieve the European Union goals for the sector.This work was financed by: the QREN – Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors, the European Union – European Regional Development Fund and National Funds- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under Project FCOMP-01- 0124-FEDER-011377 and Project Pest-OE/EME/UI0252/2011

The Regional Development Consequences of Close-Down of Nuclear Power Plants in Sweden

Energy planning is one of the most important elements of contemporary long-term planning. The central role of the energy sector in economic development has been stressed by many researchers and policy-makers. The discussion in many countries of policies for introducing at a larger scale renewable energy resources into their energy systems has a clear regional connotation. In spite of this fact most economic energy studies lack the regional dimension. There are several reasons for introducing regional elements in an energy analysis in a country as Sweden. Renewable energy resources are located in sparsely populated areas. The energy-dependent parts of the economy are concentrated geographically. The climatic conditions make the heating of buildings differentially costly in different parts of the country. The current paper gives an example of regional impact studies of national energy scenarios. It relates to the investigations in Sweden of the effects on the economic, regional, environmental, and social development of dispensing with nuclear power. The work of a subgroup in a Government Commission preparing for a nuclear referendum in 1980 is described, especially as regards the methods and models used for the regional analyses

A regional energy system transition modeling tool for decision support:a case study of the Groningen province in the Northern Netherlands

Regionalized national models are uncommon in energy system modeling and analysis. The regional level is vital because this scale assists in identifying the spatial and energy potentials of renewable energy sources. In addition, spatial planning is crucial for energy system transition and typically occurs on a local to regional level. This study created a regional decision-supporting energy system modeling tool using an existing national integrated energy system model named OPERA. The case study was the Dutch province of Groningen. Four systematic methodological steps were followed. First, a crude regionalization framework was created within OPERA. Second, renewable spatial potential was analyzed by modeling with geographic information system-based tools. Third, a regional decision-support tool was developed by adding a spatial interface to the energy system modeling framework. Fourth, this tool was tested and validated by developing stakeholder-informed scenarios and discussing the outcomes in a stakeholder workshop. Important quantitative outcomes of the tool are regional primary energy supply mixes, secondary energy demand balances, interregional energy flows, and related cost structures. The results showed that energy infrastructure is a crucial component of the total system cost. Onshore wind and biomass can play a significant role in the future regional energy system of Groningen, subject to regional and national policies and public perception. The framework can analyze trade-offs, conflicts, and complementarity between stakeholder opinions and perspectives. The stakeholder interaction process highlighted the importance of the science-policy interface. The method is universal and can be applied to other regional contexts, subject to data availability

The potential role of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in the development of sustainable energy policies, plans and programmes for Ghana

Ghana's Vision 2020 and the 1990 energy crises have influenced energy sector policy. plan and programme reforms which in turn have affected development actions. Since these strategic level development decisions have ecological, economic and social ramifications, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been seen as an effective tool for aligning energy sector policies, plans and programmes with sustainable development principles. In formulating a theoretical perspective for the study, the two overarching theories, which framed the research, were ecological rationality and institutions. Flowing from these theories, the concepts of environmentalism, sustainable development, SEA and energy policies. plans and programmes have been discussed within the context of the West, Africa and Ghana. By the application of factor analysis. multiple regression, path analysis, partial regression, reliability models and tests of proportion (chi-square) in a quantitative analysis, the study tested key hypotheses and computed reliability and validity coefficients where appropriate. The study found that although energy sector SEA in Ghana is essential for promoting sustainable energy policies, plans and programmes, it is not a sufficient condition for the implementation of effective sustainable energy policies, plans and programmes without the complement of other sector SEAs and constantly improving overall legal, social, political, economic and institutional frameworks for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and SEA. The study confirms that context and philosophical convergence provide a common denominator for designing sustainable energy policies, plans and programmes across institutions in Ghana. Furthermore. the study observed that although hierarchically structured institutions such as Ghana' s National Development Planning Commission offers the best opportunity for the integration of SEA into sectoraI policies, plans and programmes, less hierarchical institutions such as Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provided a plausible and tangible framework for a joint action and implementation on the basis of equal partnership, cooperation and participation. Within the West Africa sub-region, common needs and mutual benefits, for programmes such as the West Africa Gas Pipeline Project, provided a rallying ground for a common environmental. economic and energy policy

Valuing National Forest Recreation Access: Using a Stratified On-Site Sample to Generate Values Across Activities for a Nationally Pooled Sample

The Forest Service controls vast quantities of natural resources including timber, wildlife, watersheds, air sheds, and ecosystems. For many of these resources, recreation is one of the primary uses of the natural asset. Recreation visits taken to National Forests are not "purchased" in the same type of market as other goods (e.g., timber, grazing, or housing). The price of, and ultimately benefit received from, recreation to National Forests cannot be estimated via traditional market prices and quantities. Alternate methods must be employed to estimate the value of recreation access. We use on-site survey data from the Forest Service's National Visitor Use Monitoring database (2000-2003) and stated preference demand estimation methods to model annual recreation trip-taking behavior to National Forests. We then use these models to derive estimates of per-visit net economic benefits across regions and activities. In 2000, the FS began conducting systematic research into recreation visitation levels on National Forest lands under the National Visitor Use Monitoring Project (NVUM). From 2000 to 2003 NVUM has collected data from 120 National Forests providing information on the number of annual visits, primary activity, local area expenditures, satisfaction with facilities, and limited demographic information. These data were collected using an on-site stratified random sampling scheme resulting in over 90,000 completed surveys. Using the NVUM data we estimate the net economic value (NEV) of recreation on National Forest lands. The dataset used to estimate these values contains 73,655 observations. Using a truncated negative binomial estimator, weighted by a composite factor that adjusts for the stratified, on-site nature of the data, we have estimated a series of pooled, multi-site recreation demand models and calculated net economic values for recreational visits to the National Forests for each of fourteen activities and four RPA regions (Pacific, Rocky Mountain, Northern, and Southern) on a per visit per individual value and for a per activity day per individual basis. Our results indicate that for most models and specifications, adjusting for the choice based sampling frame by using a truncated, weighted, stratified, negative binomial estimator, as well as accounting for regional and activity differences, reduces the estimate of the average per day and per activity day values. Forest managers and others involved in managing, planning, and administering resources used for recreation often need an estimate of the economic value of the resource. For many of these resources non-market analysis must be used to generate this information. For forest recreation, many of the values currently available come from secondary sources or from small samples. The values estimated using NVUM represent an improvement over many of the currently available forest recreation values because of the unique nature of the large-scale, stratified random sample.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Model-based Transportation Performance: A Comparative Framework and Literature Synthesis, Research Report 11-09

In an era of limited resources and a proliferation of data, there is increasing pressure to conduct careful evaluations of the economic, environmental, and equity effects of investments and policies that influence transportation and land-use systems. This report compares performance measures recommended to achieve desired goals and reviews the literature to determine the degree to which these measures have been implemented and what they indicate about the relative effectiveness of land-use, transit, and automobile pricing policies. Despite the variation in methods and performance measures implemented in the studies reviewed for this report, the synthesis of study results suggests the direction and relative magnitude of change resulting from different types of policies, as well as potential biases introduced by omitting the representation of the land-use and transportation interaction. Overall, the performance measures indicate that carefully designed transit, land-use, and automobile pricing policies may improve travel, economic, environmental, and equity conditions for communities. However, transit and peak-period automobile pricing policies can, in some situations, lead to negative performance outcomes across some or all measures, as illustrated in studies that explicitly represent the land-use and transportation interaction

Modelling welfare effects of a liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market

The Dutch electricity sector has traditionally been dominated by the public sector. Although this organisational structure resulted in a reliable and low-priced system, it is said not to be completely stable and efficient. National and international developments stimulate the introduction of a liberalised system. In this article, we present the model NEDMOD which is used to estimate possible welfare gains of an implementation of a liberalised market system in the Dutch electricity market

Determining Utility System Value of Demand Flexibility From Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings

This report focuses on ways current methods and practices that establish the value to electric utility systems of distributed energy resource (DER) investments can be enhanced to determine the value of demand flexibility in grid-interactive efficient buildings that can provide grid services. The report introduces key valuation concepts that are applicable to demand flexibility that these buildings can provide and links to other documents that describe these concepts and their implementation in more detail.The scope of this report is limited to the valuation of economic benefits to the utility system. These are the foundational values on which other benefits (and costs) can be built. Establishing the economic value to the grid of demand flexibility provides the information needed to design programs, market rules, and rates that align the economic interest of utility customers with building owners and occupants. By nature, DERs directly impact customers and provide societal benefits external to the utility system. Jurisdictions can use utility system benefits and costs as the foundation of their economic analysis but align their primary cost-effectiveness metric with all applicable policy objectives, which may include customer and societal (non-utility system) impacts.This report suggests enhancements to current methods and practices that state and local policymakers, public utility commissions, state energy offices, utilities, state utility consumer representatives, and other stakeholders might support. These enhancements can improve the consistency and robustness of economic valuation of demand flexibility for grid services. The report concludes with a discussion of considerations for prioritizing implementation of these improvements