Consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring—the way of assessing risk in consumer finance—and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/

Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ

Estimating an SME investment gap and the contribution of financing frictions. ESRI WP589, March 2018

In this paper, we use firm-level survey data to explore the determinants of SME investment activity and the extent to which observed investment is in line with that suggested by economic fundamentals. In contrast to previous literature which has focused on whether investment gaps exist at a more aggregate level, we find evidence that for SMEs actual investment is below what would be expected given how companies are currently performing. The estimated magnitude of this investment gap is economically meaningful at just over 30 per cent in 2016. We explore the extent to which the gap is explained by financial market challenges such as access to finance, interest rates, and the availability of collateral. Financing frictions are found to account for a moderate share of the overall investment gap (between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the gap)

Alternative agricultural policy scenarios, sector modelling and indicators - A sustainability assessment

In this article, we assess ecological, economic and social sustainability impacts of four alternative agricultural policy scenarios relevant to the European perspective. The analysed scenarios are: Prolonged Agenda 2000, On-going CAP reform, Integrated rural and environmental policy, and Liberalised Agricultural Trade

Accounting for the determinants of banks’ credit ratings

The contribution of the banking industry to the recent financial crisis 2007/8 has raised public concerns about the excessive involvement of banks in risky activities. In addition there have been public concerns about the ability of credit rating agencies to evaluate these risks in advance. In this context, this study uses an ordered logit analysis to examine the determinants of banks’ credit ratings using a sample of US and UK banks’ accounting data from 1994 to 2009. Our intention is to examine to what extent banks’ ratings reflect banks’ risks. Our analysis shows that a small number of accounting variables, namely: bank size, liquidity, efficiency and profitability are able to correctly assign credit rating for approximately 74% to 78% the sample banks. Surprisingly, the association between banks’ credit ratings and each of leverage asset quality and capital is not robust, suggesting that the rating agency’s models did not pick them up despite their importance in the crisis. In addition, the relationship between banks’ credit ratings and liquidity is the reverse of that which an adequate early warning system would require. As banks benefit from higher credit ratings they will have addressed their determinants rather than taking care of systemic factors that affect underlying risk. Policy makers therefore need to intervene to address this market failure.This study was financially supported by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS)

Transaction Costs and Profitability in UK Manufacturing

This paper explores the impact of transaction costs on performance at firm and industry levels using a sample of 7350 UK manufacturing firms. This is achieved by estimating a profit function with estimated transaction costs as a right hand side variable. The discussion has two specific objectives. (1) To show how firm and average industry transaction costs can be estimated using a stochastic frontier method. (2) To examine a central claim of transaction cost theory that links these costs to performance. In addition the different impacts of static and dynamic transaction costs are emphasised, with the different impacts being respectively negative and positive on profitability. Broadly speaking it is shown that such costs do impact on performance in a way consistent with both static and dynamic costs, in different industries, and that the impacts hold after a series of robustness checks. In addition it is shown that the impacts can depend on monopoly power, firm scale, and firm growth

Barriers to innovation and subsidy effectiveness

We explore the effects of subsidies by means of a model of firms' decisions about performing R&D when some government support can be expected. We estimate it with data on about 2,000 performinga nd nonperformingS panishm anufacturingfi rms. Wec omputet he subsidies required to induce R&D spending, we detect the firms that would cease to perform R&D without subsidies, and assess the change in the privately financed effort. Results suggest that subsidies stimulate R&D and some firms would stop performing in their absence, but most actual subsidies go to firms that would have performed R&D otherwise. We find no crowding out of private funds.Publicad

An interactive approach to policy impact assessment for organic farms in Europe

Organic farming has increasingly become an integral part of the European Common Agricultural Policy. This book analyses the impact of possible future EU policy options on typical organic dairy and arable farms in the EU. A novel methodological approach is tested in terms of applicability and feasibility of using it for international comparative policy impact analysis for organic farms. This approach links focus groups, consisting of farmers and advisors, with a policy impact assessment simulation model in an interactive manner

Organic Farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the future

How will organic farming in Europe evolve by the year 2010? The answer provides a basis for the development of different policy options and for anticipating the future relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming. The authors tackle the question using an innovative approach based on scenario analysis, offering the reader a range of scenarios that encompass the main possible evolutions of the organic farming sector. This book constitutes an innovative and reliable decision-supporting tool for policy makers, farmers and the private sector. Researchers and students operating in the field of agricultural economics will also benefit from the methodological approach adopted for the scenario analysis