Correction: Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157685.]

Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour.

Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n = 861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective behaviour. It is the first time the predictive power of a quantitative model of opinion dynamics is tested against a real dataset. Unlike previous research on the topic, the model was validated on data which did not serve to calibrate it. This avoids to favor more complex models over more simple ones and prevents overfitting. The model is parametrized by the influenceability of each individual, a factor representing to what extent individuals incorporate external judgments. The prediction accuracy depends on prior knowledge on the participants' past behaviour. Several situations reflecting data availability are compared. When the data is scarce, the data from previous participants is used to predict how a new participant will behave. Judgment revision includes unpredictable variations which limit the potential for prediction. A first measure of unpredictability is proposed. The measure is based on a specific control experiment. More than two thirds of the prediction errors are found to occur due to unpredictability of the human judgment revision process rather than to model imperfection

Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects

Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises, global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to, and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on models employing both peer interaction and external information, and emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in driving the opinion dynamics. [...]Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure

Validation of agent-based models

The automatic collection of customer transaction data, through either online shops or reward cards, is producing very large databases which contain much information about consumer behaviour. What kind of information and how exploitable it is are very relevant questions. Two approaches are being used. Either one concentrates on individual behaviour and tries to apply various theoretical frameworks and results of the literature on discrete choice, or one uses clustering algorithms in order to determine several classes of customers. The very existence of such categories is likely to be the result of social interactions and influences. The literature on discrete choice cannot easily be generalised to networked interactions, which are known to be widely present in various contexts. Another approach is to use toy models of individual behaviour and concentrate on global, aggregate quantities such as market share or demand fluctuations. This raises the question of how to validate such kind of model, hence the request of Unilever. The latter should also be understood with respect to the contribution of ESGI 2004, where a very sophisticated agent-based model of consumer behaviour was proposed (but not much studied)

Statistical analysis of emotions and opinions at Digg website

We performed statistical analysis on data from the Digg.com website, which enables its users to express their opinion on news stories by taking part in forum-like discussions as well as directly evaluate previous posts and stories by assigning so called "diggs". Owing to fact that the content of each post has been annotated with its emotional value, apart from the strictly structural properties, the study also includes an analysis of the average emotional response of the posts commenting the main story. While analysing correlations at the story level, an interesting relationship between the number of diggs and the number of comments received by a story was found. The correlation between the two quantities is high for data where small threads dominate and consistently decreases for longer threads. However, while the correlation of the number of diggs and the average emotional response tends to grow for longer threads, correlations between numbers of comments and the average emotional response are almost zero. We also show that the initial set of comments given to a story has a substantial impact on the further "life" of the discussion: high negative average emotions in the first 10 comments lead to longer threads while the opposite situation results in shorter discussions. We also suggest presence of two different mechanisms governing the evolution of the discussion and, consequently, its length.Comment: 26 pages, 16 figures, 6 table

Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.Comment: Published Nov 05, 2013. Open access at: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.007843

A conceptual framework for studying collective reactions to events in location-based social media

Events are a core concept of spatial information, but location-based social media (LBSM) provide information on reactions to events. Individuals have varied degrees of agency in initiating, reacting to or modifying the course of events, and reactions include observations of occurrence, expressions containing sentiment or emotions, or a call to action. Key characteristics of reactions include referent events and information about who reacted, when, where and how. Collective reactions are composed of multiple individual reactions sharing common referents. They can be characterized according to the following dimensions: spatial, temporal, social, thematic and interlinkage. We present a conceptual framework, which allows characterization and comparison of collective reactions. For a thematically well-defined class of event such as storms, we can explore differences and similarities in collective attribution of meaning across space and time. Other events may have very complex spatio-temporal signatures (e.g. political processes such as Brexit or elections), which can be decomposed into series of individual events (e.g. a temporal window around the result of a vote). The purpose of our framework is to explore ways in which collective reactions to events in LBSM can be described and underpin the development of methods for analysing and understanding collective reactions to events

Élőlények kollektív viselkedésének statisztikus fizikája = Statistical physics of the collective behaviour of organisms

Experiments: We have carried out quantitative experiments on the collective motion of cells as a function of their density. A sharp transition could be observed from the random motility in sparse cultures to the flocking of dense islands of cells. Using ultra light GPS devices developed by us, we have determined the existing hierarchical relations within a flock of 10 homing pigeons. Modelling: From the simulations of our new model of flocking we concluded that the information exchange between particles was maximal at the critical point, in which the interplay of such factors as the level of noise, the tendency to follow the direction and the acceleration of others results in large fluctuations. Analysis: We have proposed a novel link-density based approach to finding overlapping communities in large networks. The algorithm used for the implementation of this technique is very efficient for most real networks, and provides full statistics quickly. Correspondingly, we have developed a by now popular, user-friendly, freely downloadable software for finding overlapping communities. Extending our method to the time-dependent regime, we found that large groups in evolving networks persist for longer if they are capable of dynamically altering their membership, thus, an ability to change the group composition results in better adaptability. We also showed that knowledge of the time commitment of members to a given community can be used for estimating the community's lifetime. Experiments: We have carried out quantitative experiments on the collective motion of cells as a function of their density. A sharp transition could be observed from the random motility in sparse cultures to the flocking of dense islands of cells. Using ultra light GPS devices developed by us, we have determined the existing hierarchical relations within a flock of 10 homing pigeons. Modelling: From the simulations of our new model of flocking we concluded that the information exchange between particles was maximal at the critical point, in which the interplay of such factors as the level of noise, the tendency to follow the direction and the acceleration of others results in large fluctuations. Analysis: We have proposed a novel link-density based approach to finding overlapping communities in large networks. The algorithm used for the implementation of this technique is very efficient for most real networks, and provides full statistics quickly. Correspondingly, we have developed a by now popular, user-friendly, freely downloadable software for finding overlapping communities. Extending our method to the time-dependent regime, we found that large groups in evolving networks persist for longer if they are capable of dynamically altering their membership, thus, an ability to change the group composition results in better adaptability. We also showed that knowledge of the time commitment of members to a given community can be used for estimating the community's lifetime