How about building a transport model of the world?

The paper provides a specification, created by the recently completed BLUEPRINT project, for a world transport network model. The model should be able to make predictions (up to 100 years into the future) of transport flows throughout the world and hence make predictions of global climate-changing emissions arising from transport. Furthermore, the model should: cover both passenger and freight traffic; feature all modes of transport (road, rail, non-motorised, water, air and pipeline); and represent both local traffic and long-distance traffic. The paper describes how the model will be structured as the combination of a global model (distinguishing between approximately 30 different geographic regions of the world) and a number of regional and sub-regional models. Wherever feasible, existing regional models will be used in this system, or at least simplified versions of such models. The overall modelling system should be owned jointly by an international network of world transport modellers, welcoming easy entry to other modellers who subscribe to the underlying spirit of the network. The paper recognises the scientific complexities associated with the uncertainties of predicting 100 years into the future and with difficulties arising from the likely differences in modelling philosophy between the (already existing) regional models that might be used in the modelling system. In order to tackle these complexities, the paper defines a number of philosophy of science reference points. At the core of these reference points is the distinction between objectivity and subjectivity. The paper finishes with a number of suggestions for next steps in building the model

Factors underlying the effect of organisational downsizing on health of employees: longitudinal cohort study

Objective: To explore the underlying mechanisms between organisational downsizing and deterioration of health of employees. Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Data were assembled from before downsizing (time 1); during major downsizing affecting some job categories (time 2); and after downsizing (time 3). Contributions of changes in work, support, and health related behaviours between time 1 and time 2 to the relation between downsizing and sickness absence at time 3 were assessed by multilevel modelling. Mean length of follow up was 4.9 years. Setting: Raisio, a town in Finland. Subjects: 764 municipal employees who remained in employment after downsizing. Main outcome measures: Records of absences from work from all causes with medical certificate. Results: Downsizing was associated with negative changes in work, impaired support from spouse, and increased prevalence of smoking. Sickness absence rate from all causes was 2.17 (95% confidence interval 1.54 to 3.07) times higher after major downsizing than after minor downsizing. Adjustment for changes in work (for instance, physical demands, job control, and job insecurity) diminished the relation between downsizing and sickness absence by 49%. Adjustments for impaired social support or increased smoking did not alter the relation between downsizing and sickness absence. The findings were unaffected by sex and income. Conclusions: The exploration of potential mediating factors provides new information about the possible causal pathways linking organisational downsizing and health. Downsizing results in changes in work, social relationships, and health related behaviours. The observed increase in certificated sickness absence was partially explained by concomitant increases in physical demands and job insecurity and a reduction in job control. A considerable proportion of the increase, however, remained unexplained by the factors measured

Manual control models of industrial management

The industrial engineer is often required to design and implement control systems and organization for manufacturing and service facilities, to optimize quality, delivery, and yield, and minimize cost. Despite progress in computer science most such systems still employ human operators and managers as real-time control elements. Manual control theory should therefore be applicable to at least some aspects of industrial system design and operations. Formulation of adequate model structures is an essential prerequisite to progress in this area; since real-world production systems invariably include multilevel and multiloop control, and are implemented by timeshared human effort. A modular structure incorporating certain new types of functional element, has been developed. This forms the basis for analysis of an industrial process operation. In this case it appears that managerial controllers operate in a discrete predictive mode based on fast time modelling, with sampling interval related to plant dynamics. Successive aggregation causes reduced response bandwidth and hence increased sampling interval as a function of level

Organizational support for intrapreneurship and its interaction with human capital to enhance innovative performance

This study explores the impacts of the internal supportive environment for intrapreneurial activities on firms’ innovative performance and the moderating role of human capital in this relationship by making use of a questionnaire study covering 184 manufacturing firms in Turkey. As for the individual direct effects of the dimensions of Organizational Support (OS), Management Support for Idea Generation and Tolerance for Risk Taking are found to exert positive effects on innovative performance. Availability of a Performance Based Reward System and Free Time have no impact on innovativeness, while Work Discretion has a negative one. As for the role of Human Capital (HC), it is found to be an important driver of innovative performance especially when the OS is limited. However, when the levels of both HC and OS are high, innovative performance does not further increase, probably reaching a temporary performance ceiling. Managerial and further research implications are provided

Should the advanced measurement approach be replaced with the standardized measurement approach for operational risk?

Recently, Basel Committee for Banking Supervision proposed to replace all approaches, including Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), for operational risk capital with a simple formula referred to as the Standardised Measurement Approach (SMA). This paper discusses and studies the weaknesses and pitfalls of SMA such as instability, risk insensitivity, super-additivity and the implicit relationship between SMA capital model and systemic risk in the banking sector. We also discuss the issues with closely related operational risk Capital-at-Risk (OpCar) Basel Committee proposed model which is the precursor to the SMA. In conclusion, we advocate to maintain the AMA internal model framework and suggest as an alternative a number of standardization recommendations that could be considered to unify internal modelling of operational risk. The findings and views presented in this paper have been discussed with and supported by many OpRisk practitioners and academics in Australia, Europe, UK and USA, and recently at OpRisk Europe 2016 conference in London

Toulmin-based computational modelling of judicial discretion in sentencing

A number of increasingly sophisticated technologies are now being used to support complex decision-making in a range of contexts. This paper reports on work undertaken to provide decision support in the discretionary domain of sentencing by referring to a recently created Toulmin argument based model that involves the interplay and weighting of relevant rule-based and discretionary factors used in a decisional process. Judicial discretion, particularly in the sentencing phase, is one of the mainstays of justice systems that favour individualised justice. The study discusses the modelling process in Victorian courts in Australia, where the handing down of an appropriate custodial or non-custodial sentence requires the consideration of many factors. Tools and techniques used to capture relevant expert knowledge and display it both as a paper model and as an online prototype application are discussed

The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes’s General Theory to the Present

This paper is a contribution to the forthcoming Edward Elgar Handbook of the History of Economic Analysis volume edited by Gilbert Faccarello and Heinz Kurz. Its aim is to introduce the reader to the main episodes that have marked the course of modern macroeconomics: its emergence after the publication of Keynes’s General Theory, the heydays of Keynesian macroeconomics based on the IS-LM model, disequilibrium and non-Walrasian equilibrium modelling, the invention of the natural rate of unemployment notion, the new classical attack against Keynesian macroeconomics, the first wave of new Keynesian models, real business cycle modelling and, finally, the second wage of new Keynesian models, i.e. DSGE models. A main thrust of the paper is the contrast we draw between Keynesian macroeconomics and stochastic dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomics. We hope that our paper will be useful for teachers of macroeconomics wishing to complement their technical material with a historical addendum.Keynes, Lucas, IS-LM model, DSGE models