DiSECCS - final summary report. Work packages, 1 - 4

Seismic techniques comprise the key geophysical toolset for imaging and characterising induced changes in the subsurface associated with human activity. This ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid saturation, pressure and geological stress and strain using active and passive seismic techniques has critical application to the monitoring of geological CO2 storage. The DiSECCS project (Diagnostic Seismic Toolbox for Efficient Control of CO2 Storage) has developed seismic monitoring tools and methodologies to identify and characterise injectioninduced changes, whether of fluid saturation or pressure, in storage reservoirs. We have developed guidelines for the monitoring systems and protocols required to maintain the integrity of storage reservoirs suitable for large-scale CO2 storage. The focus is on storage in saline aquifers (comprising the largest potential global storage resource), where considerable amounts of in situ water have to be displaced and both pressure and two-phase flow effects have consequences for storage integrity and storage capacity. Underground storage of CO2 is associated with significant levels of public concern. A better understanding of this is a key element of establishing monitoring protocols to instil wider public confidence in CO2 storage. DiSECCS draws on analogue activities, such as ‘fracking’ for shale gas, in conjunction with a discursive process involving lay participants, to gain insights into how people engage with similar underground activities and how controversies surrounding particular projects develop and evolve

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Proceedings of the 2017 Coal Operators\u27 Conference

Proceedings of the 2017 Coal Operators\u27 Conference. All papers in these proceedings are peer reviewed. ISBN: 978174128261

Optimizing resilience decision-support for natural gas networks under uncertainty

2019 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Community resilience in the aftermath of a hazard requires the functionality of complex, interdependent infrastructure systems become operational in a timely manner to support social and economic institutions. In the context of risk management and community resilience, critical decisions should be made not only in the aftermath of a disaster in order to immediately respond to the destructive event and properly repair the damage, but preventive decisions should to be made in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of hazards prior to their occurrence. This involves significant uncertainty about the basic notion of the hazard itself, and usually involves mitigation strategies such as strengthening components or preparing required resources for post-event repairs. In essence, instances of risk management problems that encourage a framework for coupled decisions before and after events include modeling how to allocate resources before the disruptive event so as to maximize the efficiency for their distribution to repair in the aftermath of the event, and how to determine which network components require preventive investments in order to enhance their performance in case of an event. In this dissertation, a methodology is presented for optimal decision making for resilience assessment, seismic risk mitigation, and recovery of natural gas networks, taking into account their interdependency with some of the other systems within the community. In this regard, the natural gas and electric power networks of a virtual community were modeled with enough detail such that it enables assessment of natural gas network supply at the community level. The effect of the industrial makeup of a community on its natural gas recovery following an earthquake, as well as the effect of replacing conventional steel pipes with ductile HDPE pipelines as an effective mitigation strategy against seismic hazard are investigated. In addition, a multi objective optimization framework that integrates probabilistic seismic risk assessment of coupled infrastructure systems and evolutionary algorithms is proposed in order to determine cost-optimal decisions before and after a seismic event, with the objective of making the natural gas network recover more rapidly, and thus the community more resilient. Including bi-directional interdependencies between the natural gas and electric power network, strategic decisions are pursued regarding which distribution pipelines in the gas network should be retrofitted under budget constraints, with the objectives to minimizing the number of people without natural gas in the residential sector and business losses due to the lack of natural gas in non-residential sectors. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used in order to propagate uncertainties and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is adopted in order to capture uncertainties in the seismic hazard with an approach to preserve spatial correlation. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) approach is utilized to solve the multi-objective optimization problem under study. The results prove the potential of the developed methodology to provide risk-informed decision support, while being able to deal with large-scale, interdependent complex infrastructure considering probabilistic seismic hazard scenarios

Impact of New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquakes on the Central USA, Vol. 1 and 2

The information presented in this report has been developed to support the Catastrophic Earthquake Planning Scenario workshops held by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Four FEMA Regions (Regions IV, V, VI and VII) were involved in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) scenario workshops. The four FEMA Regions include eight states, namely Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and Missouri. The earthquake impact assessment presented hereafter employs an analysis methodology comprising three major components: hazard, inventory and fragility (or vulnerability). The hazard characterizes not only the shaking of the ground but also the consequential transient and permanent deformation of the ground due to strong ground shaking as well as fire and flooding. The inventory comprises all assets in a specific region, including the built environment and population data. Fragility or vulnerability functions relate the severity of shaking to the likelihood of reaching or exceeding damage states (light, moderate, extensive and near-collapse, for example). Social impact models are also included and employ physical infrastructure damage results to estimate the effects on exposed communities. Whereas the modeling software packages used (HAZUS MR3; FEMA, 2008; and MAEviz, Mid-America Earthquake Center, 2008) provide default values for all of the above, most of these default values were replaced by components of traceable provenance and higher reliability than the default data, as described below. The hazard employed in this investigation includes ground shaking for a single scenario event representing the rupture of all three New Madrid fault segments. The NMSZ consists of three fault segments: the northeast segment, the reelfoot thrust or central segment, and the southwest segment. Each segment is assumed to generate a deterministic magnitude 7.7 (Mw7.7) earthquake caused by a rupture over the entire length of the segment. US Geological Survey (USGS) approved the employed magnitude and hazard approach. The combined rupture of all three segments simultaneously is designed to approximate the sequential rupture of all three segments over time. The magnitude of Mw7.7 is retained for the combined rupture. Full liquefaction susceptibility maps for the entire region have been developed and are used in this study. Inventory is enhanced through the use of the Homeland Security Infrastructure Program (HSIP) 2007 and 2008 Gold Datasets (NGA Office of America, 2007). These datasets contain various types of critical infrastructure that are key inventory components for earthquake impact assessment. Transportation and utility facility inventories are improved while regional natural gas and oil pipelines are added to the inventory, alongside high potential loss facility inventories. The National Bridge Inventory (NBI, 2008) and other state and independent data sources are utilized to improve the inventory. New fragility functions derived by the MAE Center are employed in this study for both buildings and bridges providing more regionally-applicable estimations of damage for these infrastructure components. Default fragility values are used to determine damage likelihoods for all other infrastructure components. The study reports new analysis using MAE Center-developed transportation network flow models that estimate changes in traffic flow and travel time due to earthquake damage. Utility network modeling was also undertaken to provide damage estimates for facilities and pipelines. An approximate flood risk model was assembled to identify areas that are likely to be flooded as a result of dam or levee failure. Social vulnerability identifies portions of the eight-state study region that are especially vulnerable due to various factors such as age, income, disability, and language proficiency. Social impact models include estimates of displaced and shelter-seeking populations as well as commodities and medical requirements. Lastly, search and rescue requirements quantify the number of teams and personnel required to clear debris and search for trapped victims. The results indicate that Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri are most severely impacted. Illinois and Kentucky are also impacted, though not as severely as the previous three states. Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region. About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes. Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines. Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. Nearly 86,000 injuries and fatalities result from damage to infrastructure. Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone. There is extensive damage and substantial travel delays in both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, thus hampering search and rescue as well as evacuation. Moreover roughly 15 major bridges are unusable. Three days after the earthquake, 7.2 million people are still displaced and 2 million people seek temporary shelter. Direct economic losses for the eight states total nearly $300 billion, while indirect losses may be at least twice this amount. The contents of this report provide the various assumptions used to arrive at the impact estimates, detailed background on the above quantitative consequences, and a breakdown of the figures per sector at the FEMA region and state levels. The information is presented in a manner suitable for personnel and agencies responsible for establishing response plans based on likely impacts of plausible earthquakes in the central USA.Armu W0132T-06-02unpublishednot peer reviewe