The Development of the Use of Expert Testimony

The steadily increasing performance of modern computer systems is having a large influence on simulation technologies. It enables increasingly detailed simulations of larger and more comprehensive simulation models. Increasingly large amounts of numerical data are produced by these simulations. This thesis presents several contributions in the field of mechanical system simulation and visualisation. The work described in the thesis is of practical relevance and results have been tested and implemented in tools that are used daily in the industry i.e., the BEAST (BEAring Simulation Tool) tool box. BEAST is a multibody system (MBS) simulation software with special focus on detailed contact calculations. Our work is primarily focusing on these types of systems. focusing on these types of systems. Research in the field of simulation modelling typically focuses on one or several specific topics around the modelling and simulation work process. The work presented here is novel in the sense that it provides a complete analysis and tool chain for the whole work process for simulation modelling and analysis of multibody systems with detailed contact models. The focus is on detecting and dealing with possible problems and bottlenecks in the work process, with respect to multibody systems with detailed contact models. The following primary research questions have been formulated: How to utilise object-oriented techniques for modelling of multibody systems with special reference tocontact modelling? How to integrate visualisation with the modelling and simulation process of multibody systems withdetailed contacts. How to reuse and combine existing simulation models to simulate large mechanical systems consistingof several sub-systems by means of co-simulation modelling? Unique in this work is the focus on detailed contact models. Most modelling approaches for multibody systems focus on modelling of bodies and boundary conditions of such bodies, e.g., springs, dampers, and possibly simple contacts. Here an object oriented modelling approach for multibody simulation and modelling is presented that, in comparison to common approaches, puts emphasis on integrated contact modelling and visualisation. The visualisation techniques are commonly used to verify the system model visually and to analyse simulation results. Data visualisation covers a broad spectrum within research and development. The focus is often on detailed solutions covering a fraction of the whole visualisation process. The novel visualisation aspect of the work presented here is that it presents techniques covering the entire visualisation process integrated with modeling and simulation. This includes a novel data structure for efficient storage and visualisation of multidimensional transient surface related data from detailed contact calculations. Different mechanical system simulation models typically focus on different parts (sub-systems) of a system. To fully understand a complete mechanical system it is often necessary to investigate several or all parts simultaneously. One solution for a more complete system analysis is to couple different simulation models into one coherent simulation. Part of this work is concerned with such co-simulation modelling. Co-simulation modelling typically focuses on data handling, connection modelling, and numerical stability. This work puts all emphasis on ease of use, i.e., making mechanical system co-simulation modelling applicable for a larger group of people. A novel meta-model based approach for mechanical system co-simulation modelling is presented. The meta-modelling process has been defined and tools and techniques been created to fully support the complete process. A component integrator and modelling environment are presented that support automated interface detection, interface alignment with automated three-dimensional coordinate translations, and three dimensional visual co-simulation modelling. The integrated simulator is based on a general framework for mechanical system co-simulations that guarantees numerical stability

System design and maintenance modelling for safety in extended life operation

It is frequently the most cost effective option to operate systems and infrastructure over an extended life period rather than enter a new build programme. The condition and performance of existing systems operated beyond their originally intended design life are controlled through maintenance. For new systems there is the option to simultaneously develop the design and the maintenance processes for best effect when a longer life expectancy is planned. This paper reports a combined Petri net and Bayesian network approach to investigate the effects of design and maintenance features on the system performance. The method has a number of features which overcome limitations in traditionally used system performance modelling techniques, such as fault tree analysis, and also enhances the modelling capabilities. Significantly, for the assessment of aging systems, the new method avoids the need to assume a constant failure rate over the lifetime duration. In addition the assumption of independence between component failures events is no longer required. In comparison with the commonly applied system modelling techniques, this new methodology also has the capability to represent the maintenance process in far greater detail and as such options for: inspection and testing, servicing, reactive repair and component replacement based on condition, age or use can all be included. In considering system design options, levels of redundancy and diversity along with the component types selected can be investigated. All of the options for the design and maintenance can be incorporated into a single integrated Petri net and Bayesian network model and turned on and off as required to predict the effects of any combination of options selected. In addition this model has the ability to evaluate different system failure modes. The integrated Petri-net and Bayesian network approach is demonstrated through application to a remote un-manned wellhead platform from the oil and gas industry

Component Based Performance Modelling of the Wireless Routing Protocols

In this paper, we propose a component based methodology for modelling and design of wireless routing protocols. Componentization is a standard methodology for analysis and synthesis of complex systems. Throughout the paper, we use Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR) protocol as a case study to demonstrate effectiveness of our methodology. We focus on modelling of three main components: neighborhood discovery, selector of topology information to disseminate, and the path selection components. For each component, we identify the inputs, outputs, and a generic methodology for modelling. Using the neighborhood discovery component, we will present our design methodology and design a modified enhanced version of the OLSR NDC, and compare its performance to the neighborhood discovery component of the OLSR protocol

Parallel pair-wise interaction for multi-agent immune systems modelling

Agent Based Modelling (ABM), is an approach for modelling dynamic systems and studying complex and emergent behaviour. ABM approach is a very common technique in biological domain due to high demand for a large scale analysis tool to collect and interpret information to solve biological problems. However, simulating large scale cellular level models (i.e. large number of agents/entities) require a high degree of computational power which is achievable through parallel computing methods such as Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). The use of parallel approaches in ABMs is growing rapidly specifically when modelling in continuous space system (particle based). Parallel implementation of particle based simulation within continuum space where agents contain quantities of chemicals/substances is very challenging. Pair-wise interactions are different abstraction to continuous space (particle) models which is commonly used for immune system modelling. This paper describes an approach to parallelising the key component of biological and immune system models (pair-wise interactions) within an ABM model. Our performance results demonstrate the applicability of this method to a broader class of biological systems with the same type of cell interactions and that it can be used as the basis for developing complete immune system models on parallel hardware

Bayesian learning of models for estimating uncertainty in alert systems: application to air traffic conflict avoidance

Alert systems detect critical events which can happen in the short term. Uncertainties in data and in the models used for detection cause alert errors. In the case of air traffic control systems such as Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA), uncertainty increases errors in alerts of separation loss. Statistical methods that are based on analytical assumptions can provide biased estimates of uncertainties. More accurate analysis can be achieved by using Bayesian Model Averaging, which provides estimates of the posterior probability distribution of a prediction. We propose a new approach to estimate the prediction uncertainty, which is based on observations that the uncertainty can be quantified by variance of predicted outcomes. In our approach, predictions for which variances of posterior probabilities are above a given threshold are assigned to be uncertain. To verify our approach we calculate a probability of alert based on the extrapolation of closest point of approach. Using Heathrow airport flight data we found that alerts are often generated under different conditions, variations in which lead to alert detection errors. Achieving 82.1% accuracy of modelling the STCA system, which is a necessary condition for evaluating the uncertainty in prediction, we found that the proposed method is capable of reducing the uncertain component. Comparison with a bootstrap aggregation method has demonstrated a significant reduction of uncertainty in predictions. Realistic estimates of uncertainties will open up new approaches to improving the performance of alert systems

Nonlinear prediction based on independent component analysis mixture modelling

[EN] This paper presents a new algorithm for nonlinear prediction based on independent component analysis mixture modelling (ICAMM). The data are considered from several mutually-exclusive classes which are generated by different ICA models. This strategy allows linear local projections that can be adapted to partial segments of a data set while maintaining generalization (capability for nonlinear modelling) given the mixture of several ICAs. The resulting algorithm is a general purpose technique that could be applied to time series prediction, to recover missing data in images, etc. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations in comparison with several classical linear and nonlinear methods. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.This work has been supported by the Generalitat Valenciana under grant PROMETEO/2010/040, and the Spanish Administration and the FEDER Programme of the European Union under grant TEC 2008-02975/TEC.Safont Armero, G.; Salazar Afanador, A.; Vergara Domínguez, L. (2011). Nonlinear prediction based on independent component analysis mixture modelling. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. 6691(1):508-515. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-21498-1_64S50851566911Hyvärinen, A., Karhunen, J., Oja, E.: Independent Component Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, New York (2001)Lee, T.W., Lewicki, M.S., Sejnowski, T.J.: ICA mixture models for unsupervised classification of non-gaussian classes and automatic context switching in blind signal separation. IEEE Trans. on Patt. Analysis and Mach. Intellig. 22(10), 1078–1089 (2000)Malaroiu, S., Kiviluoto, K., Oja, E.: ICA Preprocessing for Time Series Prediction. In: 2nd International Workshop on ICA and BSS (ICA 2000), pp. 453–457 (2000)Pajunen, P.: Extensions of Linear Independent Component Analysis: Neural and Information-Theoretic Methods. Ph.D. Thesis, Helsinki University of Technology (1998)Gorriz, J.M., Puntonet, C.G., Salmeron, G., Lang, E.W.: Time Series Prediction using ICA Algorithms. In: Proceedings of the 2nd IEEE International Workshop on Intelligent Data Acquisit. and Advanc. Comput. Systems: Technology and Applications, pp. 226–230 (2003)Wang, C.Z., Tan, X.F., Chen, Y.W., Han, X.H., Ito, M., Nishikawa, I.: Independent component analysis-based prediction of O-Linked glycosylation sites in protein using multi-layered neural networks. In: IEEE 10th Internat. Conf. on Signal Processing, pp. 1–4 (2010)Zhang, Y., Teng, Y., Zhang, Y.: Complex process quality prediction using modified kernel partial least squares. Chemical Engineering Science 65, 2153–2158 (2010)Salazar, A., Vergara, L., Serrano, A., Igual, J.: A general procedure for learning mixtures of independent component analyzers. Pattern Recognition 43(1), 69–85 (2010)Bersektas, D.: Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, Massachusetts (1999)Cardoso, J.F., Souloumiac, A.: Blind beamforming for non gaussian signals. IEE Proceedings-F 140(6), 362–370 (1993)Salazar, A., Vergara, L., Llinares, R.: Learning material defect patterns by separating mixtures of independent component analyzers from NDT sonic signals. Mechanical Systems and Signal processing 24(6), 1870–1886 (2010)Salazar, A., Vergara, L.: ICA mixtures applied to ultrasonic nondestructive classification of archaeological ceramics. EURASIP Journal on Advances in Signal Processing, vol. 2010, p.11, Article ID 12520111 (2010), doi:10.1155/2010/125201Salazar, A., Vergara, L., Miralles, R.: On including sequential dependence in ICA mixture models. Signal Processing 90(7), 2314–2318 (2010)Raghavan, R.S.: A Model for Spatially Correlated Radar Clutter. IEEE Trans. on Aerospace and Electronic Systems 27, 268–275 (1991

kPWorkbench: A software suit for membrane systems

YesMembrane computing is a new natural computing paradigm inspired by the functioning and structure of biological cells, and has been successfully applied to many different areas, from biology to engineering. In this paper, we present kPWorkbench, a software framework developed to support membrane computing and its applications. kPWorkbench offers unique features, including modelling, simulation, agent-based high performance simulation and verification, which allow modelling and computational analysis of membrane systems. The kPWorkbench formal verification component provides the opportunity to analyse the behaviour of a model and validate that important system requirements are met and certain behaviours are observed. The platform also features a property language based on natural language statements to facilitate property specification.EPSR

Model transformation for multi-objective architecture optimisation for dependable systems

Model-based engineering (MBE) promises a number of advantages for the development of embedded systems. Model-based engineering depends on a common model of the system, which is refined as the system is developed. The use of a common model promises a consistent and systematic analysis of dependability, correctness, timing and performance properties. These benefits are potentially available early and throughout the development life cycle. An important part of model-based engineering is the use of analysis and design languages. The Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) is a new modelling language which is increasingly being used for high dependability embedded systems development. AADL is ideally suited to model-based engineering but the use of new language threatens to isolate existing tools which use different languages. This is a particular problem when these tools provide an important development or analysis function, for example system optimisation. System designers seek an optimal trade-off between high dependability and low cost. For large systems, the design space of alternatives with respect to both dependability and cost is enormous and too large to investigate manually. For this reason automation is required to produce optimal or near optimal designs.There is, however, a lack of analysis techniques and tools that can perform a dependability analysis and optimisation of AADL models. Some analysis tools are available in the literature but they are not able to accept AADL models since they use a different modelling language. A cost effective way of adding system dependability analysis and optimisation to models expressed in AADL is to exploit the capabilities of existing tools. Model transformation is a useful technique to maximise the utility of model-based engineering approaches because it provides a route for the exploitation of mature and tested tools in a new model-based engineering context. By using model transformation techniques, one can automatically translate between AADL models and other models. The advantage of this model transformation approach is that it opens a path by which AADL models may exploit existing non-AADL tools.There is little published work which gives a comprehensive description of a method for transforming AADL models. Although transformations from AADL into other models have been reported only one comprehensive description has been published, a transformation of AADL to petri net models. There is a lack of detailed guidance for the transformation of AADL models.This thesis investigates the transformation of AADL models into the HiP-HOPS modelling language, in order to provide dependability analysis and optimisation. HiP-HOPS is a mature, state of the art, dependability analysis and optimisation tool but it has its own model. A model transformation is defined from the AADL model to the HiP-HOPS model. In addition to the model-to-model transformation, it is necessary to extend the AADL modelling attributes. For cost and dependability optimisation, a new AADL property set is developed for modelling component and system variability. This solves the problem of describing, within an AADL model, the design space of alternative designs. The transformation (with transformation rules written in ATLAS Transformation Language (ATL)) has been implemented as a plug-in for the AADL model development tool OSATE (Open-source AADL Tool Environment). To illustrate the method, the plug-in is used to transform some AADL model case-studies

Multi-agent Collision Avoidance Using Interval Analysis and Symbolic Modelling with its Application to the Novel Polycopter

Coordination is fundamental component of autonomy when a system is defined by multiple mobile agents. For unmanned aerial systems (UAS), challenges originate from their low-level systems, such as their flight dynamics, which are often complex. The thesis begins by examining these low-level dynamics in an analysis of several well known UAS using a novel symbolic component-based framework. It is shown how this approach is used effectively to define key model and performance properties necessary of UAS trajectory control. This is demonstrated initially under the context of linear quadratic regulation (LQR) and model predictive control (MPC) of a quadcopter. The symbolic framework is later extended in the proposal of a novel UAS platform, referred to as the ``Polycopter" for its morphing nature. This dual-tilt axis system has unique authority over is thrust vector, in addition to an ability to actively augment its stability and aerodynamic characteristics. This presents several opportunities in exploitative control design. With an approach to low-level UAS modelling and control proposed, the focus of the thesis shifts to investigate the challenges associated with local trajectory generation for the purpose of multi-agent collision avoidance. This begins with a novel survey of the state-of-the-art geometric approaches with respect to performance, scalability and tolerance to uncertainty. From this survey, the interval avoidance (IA) method is proposed, to incorporate trajectory uncertainty in the geometric derivation of escape trajectories. The method is shown to be more effective in ensuring safe separation in several of the presented conditions, however performance is shown to deteriorate in denser conflicts. Finally, it is shown how by re-framing the IA problem, three dimensional (3D) collision avoidance is achieved. The novel 3D IA method is shown to out perform the original method in three conflict cases by maintaining separation under the effects of uncertainty and in scenarios with multiple obstacles. The performance, scalability and uncertainty tolerance of each presented method is then examined in a set of scenarios resembling typical coordinated UAS operations in an exhaustive Monte-Carlo analysis