Analysis of meteorology-chemistry interactions during air pollution episodes using online coupled models within AQMEII Phase-2

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).This study reviews the top ranked meteorology and chemistry interactions in online coupled models recommended by an experts’ survey conducted in COST Action EuMetChem and examines the sensitivity of those interactions during two pollution episodes: the Russian forest fires 25 Jul -15 Aug 2010 and a Saharan dust transport event from 1 Oct -31 Oct 2010 as a part of the AQMEII phase-2 exercise. Three WRF-Chem model simulations were performed for the forest fire case for a baseline without any aerosol feedback on meteorology, a simulation with aerosol direct effects only and a simulation including both direct and indirect effects. For the dust case study, eight WRF-Chem and one WRF-CMAQ simulations were selected from the set of simulations conducted in the framework of AQMEII. Of these two simulations considered no feedbacks, two included direct effects only and five simulations included both direct and indirect effects. The results from both episodes demonstrate that it is important to include the meteorology and chemistry interactions in online-coupled models. Model evaluations using routine observations collected in AQMEII phase-2 and observations from a station in Moscow show that for the fire case the simulation including only aerosol direct effects has better performance than the simulations with no aerosol feedbacks or including both direct and indirect effects. The normalized mean biases are significantly reduced by 10-20% for PM10 when including aerosol direct effects. The analysis for the dust case confirms that models perform better when including aerosol direct effects, but worse when including both aerosol direct and indirect effects, which suggests that the representation of aerosol indirect effects needs to be improved in the model.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU-project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity) with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT) event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, could be followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one reaching almost a height of 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides <sup>10</sup>Be and <sup>7</sup>Be and their ratio <sup>10</sup>Be/<sup>7</sup>Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures with many details the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October 1999) from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric model is shown to be in very good agreement with the observations during this case study, which provides the first successful validation of a chemical tracer that is used operationally in a weather forecast model. This suggests that coupling chemistry and weather forecast models may significantly improve both weather and chemical forecasts in the future

Case study of ozone anomalies over northern Russia in the 2015/2016 winter: measurements and numerical modelling

Episodes of extremely low ozone columns were observed over the territory of Russia in the Arctic winter of 2015/2016 and the beginning of spring 2016. We compare total ozone columns (TOCs) from different remote sensing techniques (satellite and ground-based observations) with results of numerical modelling over the territory of the Urals and Siberia for this period. We demonstrate that the provided monitoring systems (including the new Russian Infrared Fourier Spectrometer IKFS-2) and modern three-dimensional atmospheric models can capture the observed TOC anomalies. However, the results of observations and modelling show differences of up to 20&thinsp;%–30&thinsp;% in TOC measurements. Analysis of the role of chemical and dynamical processes demonstrates that the observed short-term TOC variability is not a result of local photochemical loss initiated by heterogeneous halogen activation on particles of polar stratospheric clouds that formed under low temperatures in the mid-winter.</p

Sub-continental transport mechanisms and pathways during two ozone episodes in northern Spain

International audienceTwo ozone episodes (occurring in June 2001 and June 2003) in the air quality monitoring network of the Basque Country (BC) are analyzed. The population information threshold was exceeded in many stations (urban, urban-background and rural). During this type of episodes, forced by a blocking anticyclone over the British Isles, ozone background concentrations over the area increase after the import of pollution from both, the continental Europe and the western Mediterranean areas (Gangoiti et al., 2002). For the present analysis, emphasis is made in the search for transport mechanisms, pathways and area sources contributing to the build-up of the episodes. Contributions from a selection of 17 urban and industrial conglomerates in the western European Atlantic (WEA) and the western Mediterranean (WM) are shown after the results of a coupled RAMS-HYPACT modelling system. Meteorological simulations are tested against both the high-resolution wind data recorded at the BC coastal area by a boundary layer wind-profiler radar (Alonso et al., 1998) and the wind soundings reported by the National Centres of Meteorology at a selection of European and north-African sites. Results show that during the accumulation phase of the episodes, background ozone concentrations increase in the whole territory as a consequence of transport from the Atlantic coast of France and the British Channel. For the peak phase, intrusions from new sources, located at the Western Mediterranean, Southern France, Ebro Valley, and, occasionally, the area of Madrid are added, resulting in a further increase in the ozone concentrations. Direct day and night transport within the north-easterly winds over the sea from the WEA source region, and night-time transport within the residual layer over continental areas (southern France, the Ebro Valley, and central Iberia) modulate the import sequence of pollutants and the local increase of ozone concentrations. The alternative direct use of low resolution meteorological data for the estimation of back-trajectories shows a more simple transport scheme with no contributions neither from the Western Mediterranean nor from the Madrid area

Modelling chemistry in the nocturnal boundary layer above tropical rainforest and a generalised effective nocturnal ozone deposition velocity for sub-ppbv NOx conditions

Measurements of atmospheric composition have been made over a remote rainforest landscape. A box model has previously been demonstrated to model the observed daytime chemistry well. However the box model is unable to explain the nocturnal measurements of relatively high [NO] and [O3], but relatively low observed [NO2]. It is shown that a one-dimensional (1-D) column model with simple O3 -NOx chemistry and a simple representation of vertical transport is able to explain the observed nocturnal concentrations and predict the likely vertical profiles of these species in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). Concentrations of tracers carried over from the end of the night can affect the atmospheric chemistry of the following day. To ascertain the anomaly introduced by using the box model to represent the NBL, vertically-averaged NBL concentrations at the end of the night are compared between the 1-D model and the box model. It is found that, under low to medium [NOx] conditions (NOx <1 ppbv), a simple parametrisation can be used to modify the box model deposition velocity of ozone, in order to achieve good agreement between the box and 1-D models for these end-of-night concentrations of NOx and O3. This parametrisation would could also be used in global climate-chemistry models with limited vertical resolution near the surface. Box-model results for the following day differ significantly if this effective nocturnal deposition velocity for ozone is implemented; for instance, there is a 9% increase in the following day’s peak ozone concentration. However under medium to high [NOx] conditions (NOx > 1 ppbv), the effect on the chemistry due to the vertical distribution of the species means no box model can adequately represent chemistry in the NBL without modifying reaction rate constants

Chemical nonlinearities in relating intercontinental ozone pollution to anthropogenic emissions

Model studies typically estimate intercontinental influence on surface ozone by perturbing emissions from a source continent and diagnosing the ozone response in the receptor continent. Since the response to perturbations is non-linear due to chemistry, conclusions drawn from different studies may depend on the magnitude of the applied perturbation. We investigate this issue for intercontinental transport between North America, Europe, and Asia with sensitivity simulations in three global chemical transport models. In each region, we decrease anthropogenic emissions of NOx and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) by 20% and 100%. We find strong nonlinearity in the response to NOx perturbations outside summer, reflecting transitions in the chemical regime for ozone production. In contrast, we find no significant nonlinearity to NOx perturbations in summer or to NMVOC perturbations year-round. The relative benefit of decreasing NOx vs. NMVOC from current levels to abate intercontinental pollution increases with the magnitude of emission reductions

Estimating European volatile organic compound emissions using satellite observations of formaldehyde from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

Emission of non-methane Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere stems from biogenic and human activities, and their estimation is difficult because of the many and not fully understood processes involved. In order to narrow down the uncertainty related to VOC emissions, which negatively reflects on our ability to simulate the atmospheric composition, we exploit satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO), an ubiquitous oxidation product of most VOCs, focusing on Europe. HCHO column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) reveal a marked seasonal cycle with a summer maximum and winter minimum. In summer, the oxidation of methane and other long-lived VOCs supply a slowly varying background HCHO column, while HCHO variability is dominated by most reactive VOC, primarily biogenic isoprene followed in importance by biogenic terpenes and anthropogenic VOCs. The chemistry-transport model CHIMERE qualitatively reproduces the temporal and spatial features of the observed HCHO column, but display regional biases which are attributed mainly to incorrect biogenic VOC emissions, calculated with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN) algorithm. These "bottom-up" or a-priori emissions are corrected through a Bayesian inversion of the OMI HCHO observations. Resulting "top-down" or a-posteriori isoprene emissions are lower than "bottom-up" by 40% over the Balkans and by 20% over Southern Germany, and higher by 20% over Iberian Peninsula, Greece and Italy. We conclude that OMI satellite observations of HCHO can provide a quantitative "top-down" constraint on the European "bottom-up" VOC inventories

Chemical nonlinearities in relating intercontinental ozone pollution to anthropogenic emissions

Model studies typically estimate intercontinental influence on surface ozone by perturbing emissions from a source continent and diagnosing the ozone response in the receptor continent. Since the response to perturbations is non-linear due to chemistry, conclusions drawn from different studies may depend on the magnitude of the applied perturbation. We investigate this issue for intercontinental transport between North America, Europe, and Asia with sensitivity simulations in three global chemical transport models. In each region, we decrease anthropogenic emissions of NOx and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) by 20% and 100%. We find strong nonlinearity in the response to NOx perturbations outside summer, reflecting transitions in the chemical regime for ozone production. In contrast, we find no significant nonlinearity to NOx perturbations in summer or to NMVOC perturbations year-round. The relative benefit of decreasing NOx vs. NMVOC from current levels to abate intercontinental pollution increases with the magnitude of emission reductions

Analysis of UK and European NOx and VOC emission scenarios in the Defra model intercomparison exercise

This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertainSimple emission scenarios have been implemented in eight United Kingdom air quality models with the aim of assessing how these models compared when addressing whether photochemical ozone formation in southern England was NOx- or VOC-sensitive and whether ozone precursor sources in the UK or in the Rest of Europe (RoE) were the most important during July 2006. The suite of models included three Eulerian-grid models (three implementations of one of these models), a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model and two moving box air parcel models. The assignments as to NOx- or VOC-sensitive and to UK- versus RoE-dominant, turned out to be highly variable and often contradictory between the individual models. However, when the assignments were filtered by model performance on each day, many of the contradictions could be eliminated. Nevertheless, no one model was found to be the 'best' model on all days, indicating that no single air quality model could currently be relied upon to inform policymakers robustly in terms of NOx- versus VOC-sensitivity and UK- versus RoE-dominance on each day. It is important to maintain a diversity in model approaches.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio