A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Contextual Sequence Modeling for Recommendation with Recurrent Neural Networks

Recommendations can greatly benefit from good representations of the user state at recommendation time. Recent approaches that leverage Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for session-based recommendations have shown that Deep Learning models can provide useful user representations for recommendation. However, current RNN modeling approaches summarize the user state by only taking into account the sequence of items that the user has interacted with in the past, without taking into account other essential types of context information such as the associated types of user-item interactions, the time gaps between events and the time of day for each interaction. To address this, we propose a new class of Contextual Recurrent Neural Networks for Recommendation (CRNNs) that can take into account the contextual information both in the input and output layers and modifying the behavior of the RNN by combining the context embedding with the item embedding and more explicitly, in the model dynamics, by parametrizing the hidden unit transitions as a function of context information. We compare our CRNNs approach with RNNs and non-sequential baselines and show good improvements on the next event prediction task

Approximate entropy as an indicator of non-linearity in self paced voluntary finger movement EEG

This study investigates the indications of non-linear dynamic structures in electroencephalogram signals. The iterative amplitude adjusted surrogate data method along with seven non-linear test statistics namely the third order autocorrelation, asymmetry due to time reversal, delay vector variance method, correlation dimension, largest Lyapunov exponent, non-linear prediction error and approximate entropy has been used for analysing the EEG data obtained during self paced voluntary finger-movement. The results have demonstrated that there are clear indications of non-linearity in the EEG signals. However the rejection of the null hypothesis of non-linearity rate varied based on different parameter settings demonstrating significance of embedding dimension and time lag parameters for capturing underlying non-linear dynamics in the signals. Across non-linear test statistics, the highest degree of non-linearity was indicated by approximate entropy (APEN) feature regardless of the parameter settings