Targeting your preferences: modelling micro-targeting for an increasingly diverse electorate

The use of data to inform and run political campaigning has become an inescapable trend in recent years. In attempting to persuade an electorate, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) have been employed to great effect through the use of tailored messaging and selective targeting. Here we investigate the capacity of MTCs to deal with the diversity of political preferences across an electorate. More precisely, via an Agent-Based Model we simulate various diverse electorates that encompass single issue, multiple issue, swing, and disengaged voters (among others, including combinations thereof) and determine the relative persuasive efficacy of MTCs when pitted against more traditional, population-targeting campaigns. Taking into account the perceived credibility of these campaigns, we find MTCs highly capable of handling greater voter complexity than shown in previous work, and yielding further advantages beyond traditional campaigns in their capacity to avoid inefficient (or even backfiring) interactions – even when fielding a low credibility candidate

The power of prediction with social media

Social media provide an impressive amount of data about users and their interactions, thereby offering computer and social scientists, economists, and statisticians – among others – new opportunities for research. Arguably, one of the most interesting lines of work is that of predicting future events and developments from social media data. However, current work is fragmented and lacks of widely accepted evaluation approaches. Moreover, since the first techniques emerged rather recently, little is known about their overall potential, limitations and general applicability to different domains. Therefore, better understanding the predictive power and limitations of social media is of utmost importanc

Media Bias and Influence: Evidence from Newspaper Endorsements

This paper investigates the relationship between media bias and the influence of the media on voting in the context of newspaper endorsements. We first develop a simple econometric model in which voters choose candidates under uncertainty and rely on endorsements from better informed sources. Newspapers are potentially biased in favor of one of the candidates and voters thus rationally account for the credibility of any endorsements. Our primary empirical finding is that endorsements are influential in the sense that voters are more likely to support the recommended candidate after publication of the endorsement. The degree of this influence, however, depends upon the credibility of the endorsement. In this way, endorsements for the Democratic candidate from left-leaning newspapers are less influential than are endorsements from neutral or right-leaning newspapers, and likewise for endorsements for the Republican. These findings suggest that voters do rely on the media for information during campaigns but that the extent of this reliance depends upon the degree and direction of any bias.

Fiscal Transparency and Fiscal Policy Outcomes in OECD Countries.

It is widely believed and often argued that fiscal, or budgetary, transparency has large, positive effects on fiscal performance. However, the evidence linking transparency and fiscal policy outcomes is far from compelling. We present a career-concerns model with political parties to analyze the effects of fiscal transparency on public debt accumulation. To test the predictions of the model, we construct a replicable index of fiscal transparency. Simultaneous estimates of debt and transparency on 19-country OECD data strongly confirm that a higher degree of fiscal transparency is associated with lower public debt and deficits.

Cognitive engagement and online political participation on Facebook and Twitter among youths in Nigeria and Malaysia

The role of social media in online political participation cannot be understated. Yet, limited research has been conducted in this area. Thus, this study aims to investigate this phenomenon in comparative terms from the cognitive engagement perspective. This study adopts the Cognitive Engagement Theory (CET) to examine the relationship between Access to Political Information on Facebook and Twitter (APIFT), Political Interest (PI) and Policy Satisfaction (PS) and Online Political Participation of youth via Facebook and Twitter (OPPFT) in Nigeria and Malaysia combined, and each country individually. This study also analyses the moderating role of Political Knowledge (PK) in this relationship. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 476 undergraduate students of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria and Universiti Utara Malaysia. A questionnaire was used to collect data which was analysed using Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) and Partial Least Squares-MultiGroup Analysis (PLS-MGA). Results reveal that APIFT, PI and PS lead to OPPFT among the youth in Nigeria and Malaysia, except the relationship between PS and OPPFT for Malaysian youth. Also, PK moderates the relationship between APIFT and OPPFT for the combined youth as well as Malaysian youth, but not for Nigerian youth. Furthermore, in the relationship between PI and OPPFT, PK does not moderate the relationship for the combined youth and Nigerian youth, but it does for the Malaysian youth. Additionally, PK is found not to moderate the relationship between PS and OPPFT for the combined youth and Malaysian youth but it does for Nigerian youth. Furthermore, for country differences in terms of direct relationships, there is no significant difference between Nigerian and Malaysian youth in terms of the relationship between APIFT and OPPFT, but there is a significant difference in the relationship between PI and PS with OPPFT. Generally, these findings suggest that from a social media angle, access to political information, PI, PK and PS are likely to reduce the gap in political participation among the youth in Nigeria and Malaysia. Consequently, this study contributes in the modelling of the relationship between CET and political participation. Thus, empirical findings of this study add to the body of knowledge on online political participation

Looking out or turning in?:organisational ramifications of online political posters on Facebook

Academic analysis of the growth and nature of political campaigning online has concentrated largely on textual interactions between politicians, parties, their members and supporters as well as voters more widely. In evaluating the shift from traditional to online campaigning techniques the use of social media’s increasingly visual capabilities has been comparatively neglected in research. This article considers one type of online visual political communication, the online political poster, in terms of its strategic campaign functions relating to persuasive and organisational roles. The article uses a case study of an extensive dataset of online political posters collected from political parties in the UK, on Facebook, between September 2013 through to and including the General Election in May 2015, to try to understand how parties used online political posters and how audiences responded to them. The findings show that despite a clear emphasis on sharing images, very few received widespread attention arguably limiting their persuasive role. However, their prevalence suggests a role relating to parties trying to maintain relationships with existing online supporters as a form of displaying virtual presence, credibility and belonging, paralleling the function of traditional window posters and yard signs but in a social media setting

The influence of political party branding on voting brand preference among the youth in South Africa

Thesis (M.Com.)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Business and Economic Sciences, 2017With an increase in competition in the political sector, there is a paradigm shift as parties revert to branding to influence voters’ political party brand preference. Political marketing is one of the most important aspects of developing industry which affects institutions, people and the involvement of successful candidates in the modern generation of politics. Therefore, it is of interest to examine how political party branding can enhance brand preference of the voters. Although several studies have explored political marketing and factors influencing university students’ intention to vote using various mediums, few studies have explored distinctive cues as a holistic concept in investigating the effect on youth of brand image and brand preference. More precisely, few studies have explored this topic in a political context among the youth in South Africa. This research purpose is to determine whether political party branding influences voting brand preference among the youth in South Africa, through the means of the proposed conceptual model, brand identity, positive word of mouth and brand authenticity as the predictors, brand image as the mediating variable, and brand preference as the outcome variable. The current study undertakes a quantitative approach, where 379 questionnaires were received from the respondents, (University of the Witwatersrand students), to explore the influence of political party branding on voting brand preference among the youth in South Africa. The data was analysed using structural equation modelling and Amos 23.0. Findings support all five proposed hypotheses. Hence indicating that brand identity, positive word of mouth and brand authenticity, influences brand image and brand preference. The contribution of this study is to provide general information to guide political parties or politics in South Africa in developing marketing / branding strategies based on the concept of brand preference. These contributions will help different types of political parties in having the knowledge of the critical role of brand preference and its implementation in the political marketing context. Theoretically, it is positioned in political marketing and adds to empirical literature that focuses on political branding, branding and voters’ preference in political parties. Lastly, by examining the predictors’ variables and their influence on brand image and brand preference, the findings provide political parties with a better understanding of branding strategies that can be implemented to influence voters’ preference before, during and after a campaign through comprehensive political branding.XL201