29 research outputs found
Modelling Non-linear Crowd Dynamics in Bio-PEPA
Emergent phenomena occur due to the pattern of non-linear and distributed local interactions between the elements of a system over time. Surprisingly, agent based crowd models, in which the movement of each individual follows a limited set of simple rules, often re-produce quite closely the emergent behaviour of crowds that can be observed in reality. An example of such phenomena is the spontaneous self-organisation of drinking parties in the squares of cities in Spain, also known as "El Botellon" [20]. We revisit this case study providing an elegant stochastic process algebraic model in Bio-PEPA amenable to several forms of analyses, among which simulation and fluid flow analysis. We show that a fluid flow approximation, i.e. a deterministic reading of the average behaviour of the system, can provide an alternative and efficient way to study the same emergent behaviour as that explored in [20] where simulation was used instead. Besides empirical evidence, also an analytical justification is provided for the good correspondence found between simulation results and the fluid flow approximation
Scalable context-dependent analysis of emergency egress models
Pervasive environments offer an increasing number of services to a large number of people moving within these environments, including timely information about where to go and when, and contextual information about the surrounding environment. This information may be conveyed to people through public displays or direct to a person's mobile phone. People using these services interact with the system but they are also meeting other people and performing other activities as relevant opportunities arise. The design of such systems and the analysis of collective dynamic behaviour of people within them is a challenging problem. We present results on a novel usage of a scalable analysis technique in this context. We show the validity of an approach based on stochastic process-algebraic models by focussing on a representative example, i.e. emergency egress. The chosen case study has the advantage that detailed data is available from studies employing alternative analysis methods, making cross-methodology comparison possible. We also illustrate how realistic, context-dependent human behaviour, often observed in emergency egress, can naturally be embedded in the models, and how the effect of such behaviour on evacuation can be analysed in an efficient and scalable way. The proposed approach encompasses both the agent modelling viewpoint, as system behaviour emerges from specific (discrete) agent interaction, and the population viewpoint, when classes of homogeneous individuals are considered for a (continuous)approximation of overall system behaviour
Revisiting the Limit Behaviour of ``El Botellon"
Emergent phenomena occur due to the pattern of non-linear and distributed local interactions between the elements of a system over time. An example of such phenomena is the spontaneous self-organisation of drinking parties in the squares of cities in Spain, also known as ``El Botellon". The emergence of self-organisation was shown to depend critically on the chat-probability, i.e. the probability that a person finds someone to chat with in a square of the city. We consider a variant of ``El Botellon" in which this probability is instead defined based on the socialisation level. For this variant it is possible to derive the mean field limit and perform a stability analysis of the related ODE. We also provide a process algebraic model of ``El Botellon" and show that the phase plots of the ODE derived from the latter correspond very well to the mean field limit even for finite though relatively large populations
Using process algebra to model radiation induced bystander effects
Radiation induced bystander effects are secondary effects caused by the production of chemical signals by cells in response to radiation. We present a Bio-PEPA model which builds on previous modelling work in this field to predict: the surviving fraction of cells in response to radiation, the relative proportion of cell death caused by bystander signalling, the risk of non-lethal damage and the probability of observing bystander signalling for a given dose. This work provides the foundation for modelling bystander effects caused by biologically realistic dose distributions, with implications for cancer therapies
Scalable Performance Analysis of Massively Parallel Stochastic Systems
The accurate performance analysis of large-scale computer and communication systems is directly
inhibited by an exponential growth in the state-space of the underlying Markovian performance
model. This is particularly true when considering massively-parallel architectures
such as cloud or grid computing infrastructures. Nevertheless, an ability to extract quantitative
performance measures such as passage-time distributions from performance models of
these systems is critical for providers of these services. Indeed, without such an ability, they
remain unable to offer realistic end-to-end service level agreements (SLAs) which they can have
any confidence of honouring. Additionally, this must be possible in a short enough period of
time to allow many different parameter combinations in a complex system to be tested. If we
can achieve this rapid performance analysis goal, it will enable service providers and engineers
to determine the cost-optimal behaviour which satisfies the SLAs.
In this thesis, we develop a scalable performance analysis framework for the grouped PEPA
stochastic process algebra. Our approach is based on the approximation of key model quantities
such as means and variances by tractable systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs).
Crucially, the size of these systems of ODEs is independent of the number of interacting entities
within the model, making these analysis techniques extremely scalable. The reliability of our
approach is directly supported by convergence results and, in some cases, explicit error bounds.
We focus on extracting passage-time measures from performance models since these are very
commonly the language in which a service level agreement is phrased. We design scalable analysis
techniques which can handle passages defined both in terms of entire component populations
as well as individual or tagged members of a large population.
A precise and straightforward specification of a passage-time service level agreement is as important
to the performance engineering process as its evaluation. This is especially true of
large and complex models of industrial-scale systems. To address this, we introduce the unified
stochastic probe framework. Unified stochastic probes are used to generate a model augmentation
which exposes explicitly the SLA measure of interest to the analysis toolkit. In this thesis,
we deploy these probes to define many detailed and derived performance measures that can
be automatically and directly analysed using rapid ODE techniques. In this way, we tackle
applicable problems at many levels of the performance engineering process: from specification
and model representation to efficient and scalable analysis
Transient Reward Approximation for Continuous-Time Markov Chains
We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains
(CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of
reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of
power grids, of computer virus vulnerability, and in the study of crowd
dynamics. We use abstraction techniques together with novel algorithms for the
computation of bounds on the expected final and accumulated rewards in
continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs). These ingredients are
combined in a partly symbolic and partly explicit (symblicit) analysis
approach. In particular, we circumvent the use of multi-terminal decision
diagrams, because the latter do not work well if facing a large number of
different rates. We demonstrate the practical applicability and efficiency of
the approach on two case studies.Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Reliabilit