On Modeling Long-Term User Engagement from Stochastic Feedback

An ultimate goal of recommender systems (RS) is to improve user engagement. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising paradigm for this goal, as it directly optimizes overall performance of sequential recommendation. However, many existing RL-based approaches induce huge computational overhead, because they require not only the recommended items but also all other candidate items to be stored. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that does not require the candidate items. The idea is to model the correlation between user engagement and items directly from data. Moreover, the proposed approach consider randomness in user feedback and termination behavior, which are ubiquitous for RS but rarely discussed in RL-based prior work. With online A/B experiments on real-world RS, we confirm the efficacy of the proposed approach and the importance of modeling the two types of randomness.Comment: Accepted by the workshop on decision making for information retrieval and recommender systems (the Web Conference 2023

Mining Behavior of Citizen Sensor Communities to Improve Cooperation with Organizational Actors

Web 2.0 (social media) provides a natural platform for dynamic emergence of citizen (as) sensor communities, where the citizens generate content for sharing information and engaging in discussions. Such a citizen sensor community (CSC) has stated or implied goals that are helpful in the work of formal organizations, such as an emergency management unit, for prioritizing their response needs. This research addresses questions related to design of a cooperative system of organizations and citizens in CSC. Prior research by social scientists in a limited offline and online environment has provided a foundation for research on cooperative behavior challenges, including \u27articulation\u27 and \u27awareness\u27, but Web 2.0 supported CSC offers new challenges as well as opportunities. A CSC presents information overload for the organizational actors, especially in finding reliable information providers (for awareness), and finding actionable information from the data generated by citizens (for articulation). Also, we note three data level challenges: ambiguity in interpreting unconstrained natural language text, sparsity of user behaviors, and diversity of user demographics. Interdisciplinary research involving social and computer sciences is essential to address these socio-technical issues. I present a novel web information-processing framework, called the Identify-Match- Engage (IME) framework. IME allows operationalizing computation in design problems of awareness and articulation of the cooperative system between citizens and organizations, by addressing data problems of group engagement modeling and intent mining. The IME framework includes: a.) Identification of cooperation-assistive intent (seeking-offering) from short, unstructured messages using a classification model with declarative, social and contrast pattern knowledge, b.) Facilitation of coordination modeling using bipartite matching of complementary intent (seeking-offering), and c.) Identification of user groups to prioritize for engagement by defining a content-driven measure of \u27group discussion divergence\u27. The use of prior knowledge and interplay of features of users, content, and network structures efficiently captures context for computing cooperation-assistive behavior (intent and engagement) from unstructured social data in the online socio-technical systems. Our evaluation of a use-case of the crisis response domain shows improvement in performance for both intent classification and group engagement prioritization. Real world applications of this work include use of the engagement interface tool during various recent crises including the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir floods, and intent classification as a service integrated by the crisis mapping pioneer Ushahidi\u27s CrisisNET project for broader impact

Statistical Methods for Analyzing Time Series Data Drawn from Complex Social Systems

The rise of human interaction in digital environments has lead to an abundance of behavioral traces. These traces allow for model-based investigation of human-human and human-machine interaction `in the wild.' Stochastic models allow us to both predict and understand human behavior. In this thesis, we present statistical procedures for learning such models from the behavioral traces left in digital environments. First, we develop a non-parametric method for smoothing time series data corrupted by serially correlated noise. The method determines the simplest smoothing of the data that simultaneously gives the simplest residuals, where simplicity of the residuals is measured by their statistical complexity. We find that complexity regularized regression outperforms generalized cross validation in the presence of serially correlated noise. Next, we cast the task of modeling individual-level user behavior on social media into a predictive framework. We demonstrate the performance of two contrasting approaches, computational mechanics and echo state networks, on a heterogeneous data set drawn from user behavior on Twitter. We demonstrate that the behavior of users can be well-modeled as processes with self-feedback. We find that the two modeling approaches perform very similarly for most users, but that users where the two methods differ in performance highlight the challenges faced in applying predictive models to dynamic social data. We then expand the predictive problem of the previous work to modeling the aggregate behavior of large collections of users. We use three models, corresponding to seasonal, aggregate autoregressive, and aggregation-of-individual approaches, and find that the performance of the methods at predicting times of high activity depends strongly on the tradeoff between true and false positives, with no method dominating. Our results highlight the challenges and opportunities involved in modeling complex social systems, and demonstrate how influencers interested in forecasting potential user engagement can use complexity modeling to make better decisions. Finally, we turn from a predictive to a descriptive framework, and investigate how well user behavior can be attributed to time of day, self-memory, and social inputs. The models allow us to describe how a user processes their past behavior and their social inputs. We find that despite the diversity of observed user behavior, most models inferred fall into a small subclass of all possible finitary processes. Thus, our work demonstrates that user behavior, while quite complex, belies simple underlying computational structures