Information Extraction in Illicit Domains

Extracting useful entities and attribute values from illicit domains such as human trafficking is a challenging problem with the potential for widespread social impact. Such domains employ atypical language models, have `long tails' and suffer from the problem of concept drift. In this paper, we propose a lightweight, feature-agnostic Information Extraction (IE) paradigm specifically designed for such domains. Our approach uses raw, unlabeled text from an initial corpus, and a few (12-120) seed annotations per domain-specific attribute, to learn robust IE models for unobserved pages and websites. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach can outperform feature-centric Conditional Random Field baselines by over 18\% F-Measure on five annotated sets of real-world human trafficking datasets in both low-supervision and high-supervision settings. We also show that our approach is demonstrably robust to concept drift, and can be efficiently bootstrapped even in a serial computing environment.Comment: 10 pages, ACM WWW 201

Exploiting prior knowledge and latent variable representations for the statistical modeling and probabilistic querying of large knowledge graphs

Large knowledge graphs increasingly add great value to various applications that require machines to recognize and understand queries and their semantics, as in search or question answering systems. These applications include Google search, Bing search, IBM’s Watson, but also smart mobile assistants as Apple’s Siri, Google Now or Microsoft’s Cortana. Popular knowledge graphs like DBpedia, YAGO or Freebase store a broad range of facts about the world, to a large extent derived from Wikipedia, currently the biggest web encyclopedia. In addition to these freely accessible open knowledge graphs, commercial ones have also evolved including the well-known Google Knowledge Graph or Microsoft’s Satori. Since incompleteness and veracity of knowledge graphs are known problems, the statistical modeling of knowledge graphs has increasingly gained attention in recent years. Some of the leading approaches are based on latent variable models which show both excellent predictive performance and scalability. Latent variable models learn embedding representations of domain entities and relations (representation learning). From these embeddings, priors for every possible fact in the knowledge graph are generated which can be exploited for data cleansing, completion or as prior knowledge to support triple extraction from unstructured textual data as successfully demonstrated by Google’s Knowledge-Vault project. However, large knowledge graphs impose constraints on the complexity of the latent embeddings learned by these models. For graphs with millions of entities and thousands of relation-types, latent variable models are required to exploit low dimensional embeddings for entities and relation-types to be tractable when applied to these graphs. The work described in this thesis extends the application of latent variable models for large knowledge graphs in three important dimensions. First, it is shown how the integration of ontological constraints on the domain and range of relation-types enables latent variable models to exploit latent embeddings of reduced complexity for modeling large knowledge graphs. The integration of this prior knowledge into the models leads to a substantial increase both in predictive performance and scalability with improvements of up to 77% in link-prediction tasks. Since manually designed domain and range constraints can be absent or fuzzy, we also propose and study an alternative approach based on a local closed-world assumption, which derives domain and range constraints from observed data without the need of prior knowledge extracted from the curated schema of the knowledge graph. We show that such an approach also leads to similar significant improvements in modeling quality. Further, we demonstrate that these two types of domain and range constraints are of general value to latent variable models by integrating and evaluating them on the current state of the art of latent variable models represented by RESCAL, Translational Embedding, and the neural network approach used by the recently proposed Google Knowledge Vault system. In the second part of the thesis it is shown that the just mentioned three approaches all perform well, but do not share many commonalities in the way they model knowledge graphs. These differences can be exploited in ensemble solutions which improve the predictive performance even further. The third part of the thesis concerns the efficient querying of the statistically modeled knowledge graphs. This thesis interprets statistically modeled knowledge graphs as probabilistic databases, where the latent variable models define a probability distribution for triples. From this perspective, link-prediction is equivalent to querying ground triples which is a standard functionality of the latent variable models. For more complex querying that involves e.g. joins and projections, the theory on probabilistic databases provides evaluation rules. In this thesis it is shown how the intrinsic features of latent variable models can be combined with the theory of probabilistic databases to realize efficient probabilistic querying of the modeled graphs

Fusing uncertain knowledge and evidence for maritime situational awareness via Markov Logic Networks

The concepts of event and anomaly are important building blocks for developing a situational picture of the observed environment. We here relate these concepts to the JDL fusion model and demonstrate the power of Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) for encoding uncertain knowledge and compute inferences according to observed evidence. MLNs combine the expressive power of first-order logic and the probabilistic uncertainty management of Markov networks. Within this framework, different types of knowledge (e.g. a priori, contextual) with associated uncertainty can be fused together for situation assessment by expressing unobservable complex events as a logical combination of simpler evidences. We also develop a mechanism to evaluate the level of completion of complex events and show how, along with event probability, it could provide additional useful information to the operator. Examples are demonstrated on two maritime scenarios of rules for event and anomaly detection

Advancing functional connectivity research from association to causation

Cognition and behavior emerge from brain network interactions, such that investigating causal interactions should be central to the study of brain function. Approaches that characterize statistical associations among neural time series-functional connectivity (FC) methods-are likely a good starting point for estimating brain network interactions. Yet only a subset of FC methods ('effective connectivity') is explicitly designed to infer causal interactions from statistical associations. Here we incorporate best practices from diverse areas of FC research to illustrate how FC methods can be refined to improve inferences about neural mechanisms, with properties of causal neural interactions as a common ontology to facilitate cumulative progress across FC approaches. We further demonstrate how the most common FC measures (correlation and coherence) reduce the set of likely causal models, facilitating causal inferences despite major limitations. Alternative FC measures are suggested to immediately start improving causal inferences beyond these common FC measures

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures. v2: Fixed typo in caption of figure 1. v3: Further typo fixes. v4: Revised in response to referee