Local Source Tsunami Inundation Modelling for Poverty Bay, Gisborne

After the Boxing Day 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, a review of tsunami hazard and risk for New Zealand identified Gisborne as the urban area with the greatest risk. Gisborne could experience gt;500 fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure during a severe tsunami. The severity of a tsunami is likely to be low for distance sources given the effectiveness of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System. However, there is a substantial risk from local sources, as no local warning system of any kind exists. Prompt evacuation is probably the most cost-effective tsunami mitigation strategy available for New Zealand coastal locations, including Gisborne. This requires both knowledge of the extent of tsunami inundation, and sufficient warning of the tsunami arrival. Hence, there are two main objectives for this investigation: 1. Determine the likely extent of tsunami inundation for Gisborne City and surrounding populated coastal locations in Poverty Bay, using a combination of hydrodynamic tsunami modelling and GIS. The modelling will simulate historical events, particularly the largest historical tsunami, the May 1947 local tsunami. Modelling will consider potential events based on the Maximum Credible Earthquake for local sources associated with the Hikurangi Deformation Front. 2. Create inundation maps of Poverty Bay that can be used for future town planning and emergency plans

Part 3: Systemic risk in ecology and engineering

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; To encourage innovative thinking about systemic issues, the New York Fed partnered with the National Academy of Sciences to bring together more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries to compare cross-disciplinary perspectives on monitoring, addressing and preventing this type of risk. ; This report, released as part of the Bank's Economic Policy Review series, outlines some of the key points concerning systemic risk made by the various disciplines represented - including economic research, ecology, physics and engineering - as well as presentations on market-oriented models of financial crises, and systemic risk in the payments system and the interbank funds market. The report concludes with observations gathered from the sessions and a discussion of potential applications to policy. ; The three papers presented in this conference session highlighted the positive feedback effects that produce herdlike behavior in markets, and the subsequent discussion focused in part on means of encouraging heterogeneous investment strategies to counter such behavior. Participants in the session also discussed the types of models used to study systemic risk and commented on the challenges and trade-offs researchers face in developing their models.Financial risk management ; Financial markets ; Financial stability ; Financial crises

Present day challenges in understanding the geomagnetic hazard to national power grids

Power grids and pipeline networks at all latitudes are known to be at risk from the natural hazard of geomagnetically induced currents. At a recent workshop in South Africa, UK and South African scientists and engineers discussed the current understanding of this hazard, as it affects major power systems in Europe and Africa. They also summarised, to better inform the public and industry, what can be said with some certainty about the hazard and what research is yet required to develop useful tools for geomagnetic hazard mitigation

Point-Focus Concentration Compact Telescoping Array: EESP Option 1 Phase Final Report for Public Release

Orbital ATK, in partnership with Mark ONeill LLC (MOLLC) and SolAero Technologies Corp., has developed a novel solar array platform, PFC-CTA, which provides a significant advance in performance and cost reduction compared to all currently available space solar systems. PFC refers to the Point Focus Concentration of light provided by MOLLCs thin, flat Fresnel optics. These lenses focus light to a point of approximately 100 times the intensity of the ambient light, onto a solar cell of approximately 1/25th the size of the lens. CTA stands for Compact Telescoping Array1, which is the solar array blanket structural platform originally devised by NASA and currently being advanced by Orbital ATK and partners under NASA and AFRL funding to a projected TRL 5+ by late-2018. The NASA Game Changing Development Extreme Environment Solar Power (EESP) Option 1 Phase study has enabled Orbital ATK to generate and refine component designs, perform component level and system performance analyses, and test prototype hardware of the key elements of PFC-CTA, and increased the TRL of PFC-specific technology elements to TRL ~5. Key performance metrics currently projected are as follows: Scalability from 300 kW per wing (AM0); Specific Power > 250 W/kg (BoL, AM0); Stowage Efficiency > 60 kW/m3; 5:1 margin on pointing tolerance vs. capability; >50% launched cost savings; Wide range of operability between Venus and Saturn by active and/or passive thermal management

Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels