Dynamics of pedestrians in regions with no visibility - a lattice model without exclusion

We investigate the motion of pedestrians through obscure corridors where the lack of visibility (due to smoke, fog, darkness, etc.) hides the precise position of the exits. We focus our attention on a set of basic mechanisms, which we assume to be governing the dynamics at the individual level. Using a lattice model, we explore the effects of non-exclusion on the overall exit flux (evacuation rate). More precisely, we study the effect of the buddying threshold (of no-exclusion per site) on the dynamics of the crowd and investigate to which extent our model confirms the following pattern revealed by investigations on real emergencies: If the evacuees tend to cooperate and act altruistically, then their collective action tends to favor the occurrence of disasters.Comment: 20 page

Multiscale modeling of granular flows with application to crowd dynamics

In this paper a new multiscale modeling technique is proposed. It relies on a recently introduced measure-theoretic approach, which allows to manage the microscopic and the macroscopic scale under a unique framework. In the resulting coupled model the two scales coexist and share information. This allows to perform numerical simulations in which the trajectories and the density of the particles affect each other. Crowd dynamics is the motivating application throughout the paper.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figure

Multiscale modeling of granular flows with application to crowd dynamics

In this paper a new multiscale modeling technique is proposed. It relies on a recently introduced measure-theoretic approach, which allows to manage the microscopic and the macroscopic scale under a unique framework. In the resulting coupled model the two scales coexist and share information. This allows to perform numerical simulations in which the trajectories and the density of the particles affect each other. Crowd dynamics is the motivating application throughout the paper.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figure

Traffic Instabilities in Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.Comment: Article published in PLoS Computational biology. Freely available here: http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.100244

Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.Comment: Published Nov 05, 2013. Open access at: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.007843

Computer simulation of leadership, consensus decision making and collective behaviour in humans

The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of a crowd simulation model developed by the authors by reproducing Dyer et al.’s experiments(published in Philosophical Transactions in 2009) on human leadership and consensus decision-­making in a computer-­based environment. The theoretical crowd model of the simulation environment is presented, and its results are compared and analysed against Dyer et al.’s original experiments. It is concluded that the results are 11 largely consistent with the experiments, which demonstrates the reliability of the crowd model. Furthermore, the simulation data also reveals several additional new findings, namely: 1) the phenomena of sacrificing accuracy to reach a quicker consensus decision found in ants colonies was also discovered in the simulation; 2) the ability of reaching consensus in groups has a direct impact on the time and accuracy of arriving at the target position; 3) the positions of the informed individuals or leaders in the crowd could have significant impact on the overall crowd movement; 4) the simulation also confirmed Dyer et al.’s anecdotal evidence of the proportion of the leadership in large crowds and its effect on crowd movement. The potential applications of these findings are highlighted in the final discussion of this paper

From Groups to Leaders and Back. Exploring Mutual Predictability Between Social Groups and Their Leaders

Recently, social theories and empirical observations identified small groups and leaders as the basic elements which shape a crowd. This leads to an intermediate level of abstraction that is placed between the crowd as a flow of people, and the crowd as a collection of individuals. Consequently, automatic analysis of crowds in computer vision is also experiencing a shift in focus from individuals to groups and from small groups to their leaders. In this chapter, we present state-of-the-art solutions to the groups and leaders detection problem, which are able to account for physical factors as well as for sociological evidence observed over short time windows. The presented algorithms are framed as structured learning problems over the set of individual trajectories. However, the way trajectories are exploited to predict the structure of the crowd is not fixed but rather learned from recorded and annotated data, enabling the method to adapt these concepts to different scenarios, densities, cultures, and other unobservable complexities. Additionally, we investigate the relation between leaders and their groups and propose the first attempt to exploit leadership as prior knowledge for group detection