Characterizing small-scale migration behavior of sequestered CO2 in a realistic geological fabric

For typical reservoir conditions, buoyancy and capillary forces grow dominant over viscous forces within a few hundred meters of the injection wells as the pressure gradient due to injection decreases, resulting in qualitatively different plume migration regimes. The migration regime depends on two factors: the capillary pressure of the leading edge of the plume and the range of threshold entry pressures within the rock at the leading edge of the plume. A capillary channel regime arises when these two factors have the same magnitude. Flow patterns within this regime vary from finger-like structures with minimal rock contact to back-filling structures with compact volumes of saturation distributed between fingers. Reservoir heterogeneity is one of the principal factors influencing CO2 migration pathway in the capillary channel regime. Here we characterize buoyancy-driven migration in a natural 2D geologic domain (1 m × 0.5 m peel from an alluvium) in which sedimentologic heterogeneity has been resolved at sub-millimeter (depositional) resolution. The relevant features of the heterogeneity are grain size distribution, which determines the mean and range of threshold pressures and correlation lengths of threshold pressures in horizontal and vertical directions. The relevant physics for this migration regime is invasion percolation, and simulations indicate that CO2 migrates through the peel in a few narrow pathways which cannot be captured by conventional coarse-grid simulations. The storage efficiency of the capillary channel regime would be low and consequently CO2 would also migrate greater distances than expected from models or simulations that neglect the capillary channel flow regime.Bureau of Economic Geolog

A life cycle assessment framework for large-scale changes in material circularity

Increasing material circularity is high on the agenda of the European Union in order to decouple environmental impacts and economic growth. While life cycle assessment (LCA) is useful for quantifying the associated environmental impacts, consistent LCA modeling of the large-scale changes arising from policy targets addressing material circularity (i.e., recycled content and recycling rate) is challenging. In response to this, we propose an assessment framework addressing key steps in LCA, namely, goal definition, functional unit, baseline versus alternative scenario definition, and modeling of system responses. Regulatory and economic aspects (e.g., trends in consumption patterns, market responses, market saturation, and legislative side-policies affecting waste management) are emphasized as critical for the identification of potential system responses and for supporting regulatory interventions required to reach the intended environmental benefits. The framework is recommended for LCA studies focusing on system-wide consequences where allocation between product life cycles is not relevant; however, the framework can be adapted to include allocation. The application of the framework was illustrated by an example of implementing a policy target for 2025 of 70% recycled content in PET trays in EU27+1. It was demonstrated that neglecting large-scale market responses and saturation lead to an overestimation of the environmental benefits from the policy target and that supplementary initiatives are required to achieve the full benefits at system level

Coal Bed Methane System Modeling - Reservoir, Wells and Surface Facilities

Imperial Users onl

Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery

This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR sites, including the impact of reservoir characterization uncertainty; understanding this uncertainty is critical in terms of economic decision making and the cost-effectiveness of CO2 storage through EOR.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, in press, Energy Procedia, 201

Reactive point processes: A new approach to predicting power failures in underground electrical systems

Reactive point processes (RPPs) are a new statistical model designed for predicting discrete events in time based on past history. RPPs were developed to handle an important problem within the domain of electrical grid reliability: short-term prediction of electrical grid failures ("manhole events"), including outages, fires, explosions and smoking manholes, which can cause threats to public safety and reliability of electrical service in cities. RPPs incorporate self-exciting, self-regulating and saturating components. The self-excitement occurs as a result of a past event, which causes a temporary rise in vulner ability to future events. The self-regulation occurs as a result of an external inspection which temporarily lowers vulnerability to future events. RPPs can saturate when too many events or inspections occur close together, which ensures that the probability of an event stays within a realistic range. Two of the operational challenges for power companies are (i) making continuous-time failure predictions, and (ii) cost/benefit analysis for decision making and proactive maintenance. RPPs are naturally suited for handling both of these challenges. We use the model to predict power-grid failures in Manhattan over a short-term horizon, and to provide a cost/benefit analysis of different proactive maintenance programs.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS789 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) selected papers – Technical annotated bibliography

Bureau of Economic Geolog

Investigation of water displacement following large CO2 sequestration operations

The scale of CO2 injection into the subsurface required to address CO2 atmospheric concentrations is unprecedented. Multiple injection sites injecting into multiple formations will create a large excess pressure zone extending far beyond the limited volume where CO2 is present. In a closed system, additional mass is accommodated by the compressibility of system components, an increase in fluid pressure, and possibly an uplift of the land surface. In an open system, as assumed in this analysis, another coping mechanism involves fluid flux out of the boundaries of the system, in which case the fresh-water-bearing outcrop areas, corresponding to the up-dip sections of the down-dip formations into which CO2 is injected, could be impacted. A preliminary study using a MODFLOW groundwater model extending far down-dip shows that injecting a large amount of fluid does have an impact some distance away from the injection area but most likely only in localized areas. A major assumption of this preliminary work was that multiphase processes do not matter some distance away from the injection zones. In a second step, presented in this paper, to demonstrate that a simplified model can yield results as useful as those of a more sophisticated multiphase-flow compositional model, we model the same system using CMG-GEM software. Because the chosen software lacks the ability to deal easily with unconfined water flow, we compare fluxes through time, as given by MODFLOW and CMG-GEM models at the confined/unconfined interface.Bureau of Economic Geolog