1,734 research outputs found
Modeling temporal networks using random itineraries
We propose a procedure to generate dynamical networks with bursty, possibly
repetitive and correlated temporal behaviors. Regarding any weighted directed
graph as being composed of the accumulation of paths between its nodes, our
construction uses random walks of variable length to produce time-extended
structures with adjustable features. The procedure is first described in a
general framework. It is then illustrated in a case study inspired by a
transportation system for which the resulting synthetic network is shown to
accurately mimic the empirical phenomenology
Modeling sequences and temporal networks with dynamic community structures
In evolving complex systems such as air traffic and social organizations,
collective effects emerge from their many components' dynamic interactions.
While the dynamic interactions can be represented by temporal networks with
nodes and links that change over time, they remain highly complex. It is
therefore often necessary to use methods that extract the temporal networks'
large-scale dynamic community structure. However, such methods are subject to
overfitting or suffer from effects of arbitrary, a priori imposed timescales,
which should instead be extracted from data. Here we simultaneously address
both problems and develop a principled data-driven method that determines
relevant timescales and identifies patterns of dynamics that take place on
networks as well as shape the networks themselves. We base our method on an
arbitrary-order Markov chain model with community structure, and develop a
nonparametric Bayesian inference framework that identifies the simplest such
model that can explain temporal interaction data.Comment: 15 Pages, 6 figures, 2 table
When is a Network a Network? Multi-Order Graphical Model Selection in Pathways and Temporal Networks
We introduce a framework for the modeling of sequential data capturing
pathways of varying lengths observed in a network. Such data are important,
e.g., when studying click streams in information networks, travel patterns in
transportation systems, information cascades in social networks, biological
pathways or time-stamped social interactions. While it is common to apply graph
analytics and network analysis to such data, recent works have shown that
temporal correlations can invalidate the results of such methods. This raises a
fundamental question: when is a network abstraction of sequential data
justified? Addressing this open question, we propose a framework which combines
Markov chains of multiple, higher orders into a multi-layer graphical model
that captures temporal correlations in pathways at multiple length scales
simultaneously. We develop a model selection technique to infer the optimal
number of layers of such a model and show that it outperforms previously used
Markov order detection techniques. An application to eight real-world data sets
on pathways and temporal networks shows that it allows to infer graphical
models which capture both topological and temporal characteristics of such
data. Our work highlights fallacies of network abstractions and provides a
principled answer to the open question when they are justified. Generalizing
network representations to multi-order graphical models, it opens perspectives
for new data mining and knowledge discovery algorithms.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, companion python package pathpy
available on gitHu
HYPA: Efficient Detection of Path Anomalies in Time Series Data on Networks
The unsupervised detection of anomalies in time series data has important
applications in user behavioral modeling, fraud detection, and cybersecurity.
Anomaly detection has, in fact, been extensively studied in categorical
sequences. However, we often have access to time series data that represent
paths through networks. Examples include transaction sequences in financial
networks, click streams of users in networks of cross-referenced documents, or
travel itineraries in transportation networks. To reliably detect anomalies, we
must account for the fact that such data contain a large number of independent
observations of paths constrained by a graph topology. Moreover, the
heterogeneity of real systems rules out frequency-based anomaly detection
techniques, which do not account for highly skewed edge and degree statistics.
To address this problem, we introduce HYPA, a novel framework for the
unsupervised detection of anomalies in large corpora of variable-length
temporal paths in a graph. HYPA provides an efficient analytical method to
detect paths with anomalous frequencies that result from nodes being traversed
in unexpected chronological order.Comment: 11 pages with 8 figures and supplementary material. To appear at SIAM
Data Mining (SDM 2020
Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for
dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The
proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to
periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To
predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the
marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced
locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand
distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of
correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear
programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the
service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework
both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this
for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We
evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in
a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often
obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional
methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive
distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table
Dynamic OD transit matrix estimation: formulation and model-building environment
The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed description of a framework for the estimation of time-sliced origin-destination (OD) trip matrices in a transit network using counts and travel time data of Bluetooth Smartphone devices carried by passengers at equipped transit-stops. A Kalman filtering formulation defined by the authors has been included in the application. The definition of the input for building the space-state model is linked to network scenarios modeled with the transportation planning platform EMME. The transit assignment framework is optimal strategy-based, which determines the subset of paths related to the optimal strategies between all OD pairsPeer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft
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