103,616 research outputs found
Modeling Exit and Entry of Farmers in a Crop Insurance Program
This paper examines the factors influencing farmer participation in crop insurance schemes, but unlike previous studies that focus on total demand, participation is disaggregated into entrants and those exiting. Modeling entry and exit decisions separately illustrates that the effect of a given variable is often muted by aggregation. In addition, the approach in this paper distinguishes between price and yield variables rather than total returns and is consequently able to demonstrate that price variables are particularly important for farmers considering enrolling in crop insurance, while yield variables and other risk management opportunities are more important for farmers who have been in the program but are deciding to exit. The result suggests that moral hazard is reduced significantly by calculating the coverage yield level for an individual producer on the basis of a moving average of past yields for that farmer. While yield and its variance are particularly influential in the participation decision for farmers currently enrolled, its significant impact on the insurance decision for all farmers highlights the importance of crop insurance as a potential adaptation strategy to weather events.crop insurance, entry and exit, panel data, Risk and Uncertainty,
Capturing Aggregate Flexibility in Demand Response
Flexibility in electric power consumption can be leveraged by Demand Response
(DR) programs. The goal of this paper is to systematically capture the inherent
aggregate flexibility of a population of appliances. We do so by clustering
individual loads based on their characteristics and service constraints. We
highlight the challenges associated with learning the customer response to
economic incentives while applying demand side management to heterogeneous
appliances. We also develop a framework to quantify customer privacy in direct
load scheduling programs.Comment: Submitted to IEEE CDC 201
Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States
Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand
Toward the Integration of Economics and Outdoor Recreation Management
The general theme of this bulletin is that improved management of
public-sector recreational resources is a multidisciplinary task. To this
end, we attempt to integrate elements of outdoor recreation management
theory and economics. The bulletin is written for both resource managers
and researchers. For the former, our intent is to emphasize the importance
of being aware of economic implications-at least conceptually-of
management actions that influence the character and availability of recreational
opportunities. To researchers involved in developing recreation
management theory, we draw attention to the parallel between recreation
management theory and the traditional managerial economic model
of the firm. To economists, particularly those involved in developing
and applying nonmarket valuation techniques, we draw attention to the
types of decisions faced by resource managers.
We argue that the most important resource allocation issues are of
the incremental variety, so nonmarket valuation should also yield incremental
values. These values alone, however, are not sufficient
economic input into rational public choice analysis. The missing link ,
or nexus, between outdoor recreation management theory and economic
analysis is the integration of supply and demand, as called for by traditional
managerial economics. Collaborative research to develop recreation
supply response functions akin to agricultural production functions
is an essential step that is missing from both literatures. Theoretical and
applied work assume greater practical importance if they feed information
into this broadened framework. It is our hope that this bulletin will
bring the disciplines closer to that realization
Automated control of hierarchical systems using value-driven methods
An introduction is given to the Value-driven methodology, which has been successfully applied to solve a variety of difficult decision, control, and optimization problems. Many real-world decision processes (e.g., those encountered in scheduling, allocation, and command and control) involve a hierarchy of complex planning considerations. For such problems it is virtually impossible to define a fixed set of rules that will operate satisfactorily over the full range of probable contingencies. Decision Science Applications' value-driven methodology offers a systematic way of automating the intuitive, common-sense approach used by human planners. The inherent responsiveness of value-driven systems to user-controlled priorities makes them particularly suitable for semi-automated applications in which the user must remain in command of the systems operation. Three examples of the practical application of the approach in the automation of hierarchical decision processes are discussed: the TAC Brawler air-to-air combat simulation is a four-level computerized hierarchy; the autonomous underwater vehicle mission planning system is a three-level control system; and the Space Station Freedom electrical power control and scheduling system is designed as a two-level hierarchy. The methodology is compared with rule-based systems and with other more widely-known optimization techniques
A development of logistics management models for the Space Transportation System
A new analytic queueing approach was described which relates stockage levels, repair level decisions, and the project network schedule of prelaunch operations directly to the probability distribution of the space transportation system launch delay. Finite source population and limited repair capability were additional factors included in this logistics management model developed specifically for STS maintenance requirements. Data presently available to support logistics decisions were based on a comparability study of heavy aircraft components. A two-phase program is recommended by which NASA would implement an integrated data collection system, assemble logistics data from previous STS flights, revise extant logistics planning and resource requirement parameters using Bayes-Lin techniques, and adjust for uncertainty surrounding logistics systems performance parameters. The implementation of these recommendations can be expected to deliver more cost-effective logistics support
Using Random Parameters to Account for Heterogeneous Preferences in Contingent Valuation of Public Open Space
To test for preference heterogeneity in dichotomous choice contingent valuation responses, a random parameter logit (RPL) specification is used in this analysis. The RPL model confirms heterogeneity in respondents' preferences for protection of public open space, as reflected in statistically significant standard deviations of the normally distributed random parameters. Results show that while the majority of respondents indicate a positive willingness to pay (WTP), a minority of those surveyed report a negative WTP. Some of this variation in tastes remains even after individual characteristics and attitudinal variables are included in the model.contingent valuation, open space, random parameter logit, willingness to pay, Land Economics/Use,
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