Environmental Taxes and Economic Welfare: The Welfare Cost of Gasoline Taxation in the U.S. 1959-1999

The purpose of this paper is to provide reasonable estimates for the welfare cost of environmental tax reform in the U.S. economy. Unlike most previous studies that empirically evaluate the deadweight cost of taxation, the model employed here considers explicitly the joint allocation of leisure and commodity demands where the wage rate plays a role both as a form of income and as the price of leisure time. The estimated results of the consumer behavior model indicate that the existing U.S. gasoline tax regime has induced a decrease of gasoline consumption by approximately 4 percent over the period from 1959 to 1999, while the deadweight cost caused by the tax accounts just for about 0.08 percent of the consumer full income over the sample period 1959-1999. Moreover, in most years of the sample period, the measures of marginal deadweight cost of gasoline taxation (sample average 0.1882) are relatively small compared to those of labor taxation (sample average 0.2175). This implies a larger efficiency gain in the case of labor taxation in shifting from the existing distortionary taxation to lump sum taxation. These empirical results might suggest the modest possibility of social welfare gains from tax reforms that shift some of the burden of taxation off labor onto energy (e.g. gasoline).Environmental taxes, double dividend hypothesis, gasoline taxation, non-separable labor supply effects, AI demand system, marginal deadweight cost

The Macro-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of HIV and AIDS in India

The adverse economic impact of HIV and AIDS occurs at three levels : the individual/household, sector, and national or macro-levels. In the early phase of the epidemic, the impacts at the sector and macro-levels are rather mild and, hence, not easily measurable or quantifiable. So far in India, given the low overall prevalence, the focus has been on the effects at the level of the individual and the household. The enlisted study, by Pradhan, Sundar and Singh (2006)1 also focuses on the impact of HIV and AIDS on affected households, which it finds to be seriously adverse, and, therefore, a matter of acute concern. At the same time, the study underplays the adverse economywide impact of AIDS. Given the current prevalence rate, the extrapolation of the household-level impact to the level of the state or the national economy does not reveal a large macro-economic impact. But, this is because the survey, on which the study is based, captures the snapshot of the economy at a given point of time, while the question of the macroeconomic impact of AIDS is essentially a dynamic one. As the HIV epidemic unfolds, its impacts are bound to be deeply compounded. These impacts cannot be assessed in their totality by a mere extrapolation of the household level impact. Furthermore, in 2005, the number of HIV-infected persons exceeds 5 million, and this number is expected to quintuple to between 20 million and 25 million by 2010. With that kind of a jump in the number of HIV cases in the next 5-10 years, there is bound to be a visible impact on the national economy. At present, little or nothing is known about the potential macro-economic impact of HIV and AIDS on the Indian economy. The rough-and-ready estimates of the macro-economic costs of AIDS that are available are of no help in guiding and accelerating the response of the Government of India to the potential threat to the economy imposed by this epidemic. A quantitative assessment of the macro-economic impact of AIDS on the Indian economy, therefore, needs to be undertaken urgently to assist the policy makers. Keeping this in mind, the study analyses the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of HIV and AIDS in India, using a fivesector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.HIV, AIDS, macroeconomic impact of AIDS, computable general equilibrium

An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Namibia

Using a unique database of end-user local energy data and the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, we estimate the long-run elasticities of the Namibian energy demand function at both aggregated level and by type of energy (electricity, petrol and diesel) for the period 1980 to 2002. Our main results show that energy consumption responds positively to changes in GDP and negatively to changes in energy price and air temperature. The differences in price elasticities across fuels uncovered by this study have significant implications for energy taxation by Namibian policy makers. We do not find any significant cross-price elasticities between different fuel types.Energy demand; ARDL; Cointegration

Analysing Residential Energy Demand: An Error Correction Demand System Approach for Ireland. ESRI WP505. July 2015

This paper analyses the Irish residential energy demand system by using variants of Deaton and Muellbauer’s Almost Ideal Demand System model. Annual data from 1970 to 2013 is employed to estimate a demand system for solid fuels, oil, gas and electricity with the models incorporating quadratic and demographic terms to estimate long-run price and expenditure elasticities. This is the first attempt in an Irish context to estimate an energy demand system for the residential sector. Error correction models were also estimated to recover short-run elasticities. Against the backdrop of onerous climate and energy efficiency policy targets, and given the residential sector’s substantial energy use it is important to update energy demand elasticity estimates to better inform policy instrument design

Strategic Vertical Pricing in the U.S. Butter Market

This article develops a methodology for empirically analyzing vertically strategic interactions in a multi-level supply channel. The model is used to analyze the vertical channel for U.S. butter manufacturing and retailing. Aggregating products to the firm level and using a nonlinear AIDS demand system under alternative strategic pricing assumptions is estimated using full information maximum likelihood (FIML) for seven geographic markets from 1998-2002. The market demand for butter was found to very price elastic. Furthermore, cross price elasticities between private labels and the two large national brands were also very elastic. The selected market structure was one indicating category profit maximization of national brands (separate from private label) at the retail level, Vertical Nash competition in the vertical channel, and Bretrand competition at the manufacturing level. Our results strongly suggest that the retail market for food products is impacted by the underlying vertical structure. The study provides useful measures of imperfect competition in the retail manufacturing sector.Vertical interaction, market structure, strategic pricing, market power, AIDS model, butter., Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, L13, L22, L66,

A general equilibrium analysis of alternative scenarios for food subsidy reform in Egypt:

This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run effects of alternative food- subsidy scenarios. Savings from reduced subsidy spending are used to reduce direct taxes uniformly for all household types. The model uses a 1996/97 database with detailed household information. The simulated impact of targeting or eliminating oil and sugar subsidies is small: disaggregated real household consumption changes by �0.3 percent. It is progressive if the subsidy is targeted to "the needy" (the bottom two quintiles in rural and urban areas) and regressive if it is eliminated. The targeting of all food subsidies is pro-needy, in part due to important indirect effects. It raises the consumption of the needy by 0.5 percent with, on average, little change for the nonneedy. The strongest gains are recorded for the rural needy (consumption increase by 1.0 percent). Food subsidy elimination is regressive: the needy suffer a consumption loss of 1.1 percent. If the government savings instead are transferred to the needy, the impact is reversed: consumption increases by 4.2 percent for needy households while the nonneedy register a small loss. The overall policy implication of the paper is that there is scope for reducing food subsidy spending without hurting the low-income groups.Food policies., Subsidies Egypt., Equilibrium (Economics) Models., Consumption (Economics),

Demand for Environmental Quality: An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Behavior in Sweden

In this paper we estimate the income elasticity of demand for recreational services and other traditional groups of goods in Sweden and test for potential changes in such estimates over the twentieth century. Due to the difficulty of directly observing the demand for recreational services, we employ an indirect methodology by using the demand for some outdoor goods as a proxy for the demand for recreational services. In line with most prior research, our results confirm the expectation that recreational services, as a public good, is a luxury good in Sweden. Our results also show that the income elasticities for traditional goods are stable over time, indicating that consumer preferences for expenditure on these specific commodities do not change over time.Household demand; environmental services; income elasticities; Engel curves

THE ALMOST IDEAL SUPPLY SYSTEM AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper estimates an Almost Ideal Supply System using aggregate U.S. agricultural data. Share equations derived from an indirect production function yield elasticities that are consistent with production theory. A nested test comparing the Almost Ideal Supply System to the Translog Production Function finds little difference between the two models.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

A SYMMETRIC APPROACH TO CANADIAN MEAT DEMAND ESTIMATION

Variability in published meat demand elasticity estimates for Canada motivates examining the importance of dynamics and endogeneity of right-hand-side variables. Wickens and Breusch suggest a re-parameterization of dynamics which allows estimating the long-run parameters directly and maintains linearity. A symmetric approach, employing both ordinary and inverse demand systems, to endogeneity of right-hand-side variables is used. Endogeneity of both prices and quantities is examined. Results show both dynamics and endogeneity are important in quarterly Canadian meat demand.Demand and Price Analysis,

Income, Energy Taxation, and the Environment: An Econometric Analysis

This thesis consists of four papers: two of them deal with the relationship between consumption, energy taxation, and emissions on macro level, and two of them focus on the effects of changes in consumption and income on the environmental quality on a micro level. The main objective of paper [I] is to examine how exogenous technological progress, in terms of an increase in energy efficiency, affects consumption choice by Swedish households and thereby emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx). The aim of the paper is closely related to the discussion of what is known as the “rebound effect”. To neutralize the rebound effect, we estimate the necessary change in CO2 tax, i.e. the CO2 tax that keeps CO2 emissions at their initial level. In addition, we estimate how this will affect emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The results indicate that an increase in energy efficiency of 20 percent will increase emissions of CO2 by approximately 5 percent. To reduce the CO2 emissions to their initial level, CO2 tax must be raised by 130 percent. This tax increase will reduce the emissions of sulphur dioxide to below their initial level, but will leave the emissions of nitrogen oxides at a higher level than initially. One of the premises implied in paper [II] is that the changes in consumer prices, as a result of changes in environmental taxes, may send a different signal to the consumer compared with other changes in consumer prices, such as changes in producer price. In addition, this assumed difference in the signaling effect of the changes in environmental taxes, compared to changes in the producer price, may also differ between different commodities. To achieve the objectives a system of demand functions for Swedish households is estimated. To test for the signaling effect of environmental taxes the consumer price for energy goods is partitioned into a producer price part and a tax part. In Paper [III], we estimate the income elasticity of demand for recreational services and other traditional groups of goods in Sweden and we test for potential changes in such estimates over the twentieth century. The paper uses Swedish household surveys for the years 1913, 1984, 1988, and 1996. Because of the difficulty of directly observing the demand for recreational services, we employ an indirect methodology by using the demand for some outdoor goods as proxies for the recreational services demand. In paper [IV], we investigate the relationship between pollution and income at the household level. Here we want to investigate, and hence contribute to the existing literature, under what conditions concerning individual preferences and the link between consumption and pollution a linear relationship is to be expected, but also to empirically assess the relationship. To achieve our objective we formulate a model determining different type of households’ choice of consumption for goods. Furthermore we link the demand model to emission functions for the various goods. The results from the empirical analysis show that, at least in a close neighborhood of observed income/pollution, we can reject linearity for all three types of pollutions, CO2, SO2, and NOx. According to our results the pollution/income relationships are all strictly concave. Thus the implication is that the income distribution seems to matter in the sense that equalization of income will lead to higher emissions. Furthermore it is shown that the slope as well as the curvature differ between different types of households, which means that preferences differ across households. Keywords: Household consumption, energy demand, emissions, rebound effect, energy taxation, tax elasticities, environmental services, income elasticities, Engel Curves, income distribution.Household consumption; energy demand; emissions; rebound effect; energy taxation; tax elasticities; environmental services; income elasticities; Engel Curves; income distribution