Network Modeling of Hurricane Evacuation Using Data-Driven Demand and Incident-Induced Capacity Loss Models

The development of a hurricane evacuation simulation model is a crucial task in emergency management and planning. Two major issues affect the reliability of an evacuation model: one is estimations of evacuation traffic based on socioeconomic characteristics, and the other is capacity change and its influence on evacuation outcome due to traffic incidents in the context of hurricanes. Both issues can impact the effectiveness of emergency planning in terms of evacuation order issuance, and evacuation route planning. The proposed research aims to investigate the demand and supply modeling in the context of hurricane evacuations. This methodology created three scenarios for the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area, including one base and two evacuation scenarios with different levels of traffic demand and capacity uncertainty. Observed volume data prior to Hurricane Sandy is collected to model the response curve of the model, and the empirical incident data under actual evacuation conditions are analyzed and modeled. Then, the modeled incidents are incorporated into the planning model modified for evacuation. Simulation results are sampled and compared with observed sensor-based travel times as well as O-D-based trip times of NYC taxi data. The results show that the introduction of incident frequency and duration models can significantly improve the performance of the evacuation model. The results of this approach imply the importance of traffic incident consideration for hurricane evacuation simulation

Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Using Behavior Models and Scenario-Driven Agent-Based Simulations

Transportation modeling and simulation play an important role in the planning and management of emergency evacuation. It is often indispensable for the preparedness and timely response to extreme events occurring in highly populated areas. Reliable and robust agent-based evacuation models are of great importance to support evacuation decision making. Nevertheless, these models rely on numerous hypothetical causal relationships between the evacuation behavior and a variety of factors including socio-economic characteristics and storm intensity. Understanding the impacts of these factors on evacuation behaviors (e.g., destination and route choices) is crucial in preparing optimal evacuation plans. This paper aims to contribute to the literature by integrating well-calibrated behavior models with an agent-based evacuation simulation model in the context of hurricane evacuation. Specifically, discrete choice models were developed to estimate the evacuation behaviors based on large-scale survey data in Northern New Jersey. Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling method was used to estimate evacuation propensity and destination choices for the whole population. Finally, evacuation of over a million residents in the study area was simulated using agent-based simulation built in MATSim. The agent-based modeling framework proposed in this paper provides an integrated methodology for evacuation simulation with specific consideration of agents’ behaviors. The simulation results need to be further validated and verified using real-world evacuation data

National Study on Carless and Special Needs Evacuation Planning: Case Studies

The National Study of Carless and Special Needs Evacuation Planning has constructed an essential outline for carless and special needs evacuation planning. This outline is built from planning efforts in each of the five case study cities. Each city had its strengths and weaknesses. In this study, we have combined the strengths from every city involved to build the criteria used to evaluate their planning efforts. In this sense, we have based our evaluations upon real planning efforts that can and are being done around the United States

Learning-to-Dispatch: Reinforcement Learning Based Flight Planning under Emergency

The effectiveness of resource allocation under emergencies especially hurricane disasters is crucial. However, most researchers focus on emergency resource allocation in a ground transportation system. In this paper, we propose Learning-to- Dispatch (L2D), a reinforcement learning (RL) based air route dispatching system, that aims to add additional flights for hurricane evacuation while minimizing the airspace’s complexity and air traffic controller’s workload. Given a bipartite graph with weights that are learned from the historical flight data using RL in consideration of short- and long-term gains, we formulate the flight dispatch as an online maximum weight matching problem. Different from the conventional order dispatch problem, there is no actual or estimated index that can evaluate how the additional evacuation flights influence the air traffic complexity. Then we propose a multivariate reward function in the learning phase and compare it with other univariate reward designs to show its superior performance. The experiments using the real world dataset for Hurricane Irma demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed schema

e-Sanctuary: open multi-physics framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuation

The number of evacuees worldwide during wildfire keep rising, year after year. Fire evacuations at the wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) pose a serious challenge to fire and emergency services and are a global issue affecting thousands of communities around the world. But to date, there is a lack of comprehensive tools able to inform, train or aid the evacuation response and the decision making in case of wildfire. The present work describes a novel framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuations. The framework is based on multi-physics simulations that can quantify the evacuation performance. The work argues that an integrated approached requires considering and integrating all three important components of WUI evacuation, namely: fire spread, pedestrian movement, and traffic movement. The report includes a systematic review of each model component, and the key features needed for the integration into a comprehensive toolkit